Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United Prediction: Original Rivalry card for dirty Davidson

Melbourne Victory and Adelaide United have traded 2-1 wins in the Original Rivalry this season, with the home team triumphing at AAMI Park in December and at Coopers Stadium last month.

Below are my Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Friday's final regular-season meeting between the two rivals in the 2025/26 Australian A-League Men's, once again at AAMI Park (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 1).

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Team News

With Reno Piscopo back fit, Louis D’Arrigo (unspecified) is Melbourne Victory's only injury absentee for the Original Rivalry.

Football Odds

Dylan Pierias (knee), Ajak Riak (hamstring), Craig Goodwin (groin) and Anselmo de Moraes (hip) are still sidelined for Adelaide United.

Melbourne Victory vs Adelaide United Odds

The home club has won the previous five head-to-heads, so it's no surprise to see Melbourne Victory listed as 8/13 favourites on Friday, implying a 61.9% probability of success, while Adelaide United are 16/5, or a 23.8% chance, to beat their rivals at AAMI Park for the first time since May 2021, with the draw offered at 3/1.

Player to Receive a Card - Jason Davidson (MVC) @ 5/2

It took fewer than 12 minutes for Victory left-back Jason Davidson to leave his mark on Yaya Dukuly in the first Original Rivalry of the season in December, taking the Adelaide winger down and conceding a free-kick in the process.

The 34-year-old managed to avoid making any further fouls in that game, but a week later, in a 1-0 win over Melbourne City in the Melbourne derby, he picked up his fourth yellow card of the campaign, on just his ninth appearances.

Davidson's fifth caution came in the 1-0 home defeat to Western Sydney Wanderers on January 17, incurring a one-match suspension, which he served the following week against Adelaide.

Today's Football Fixtures

The Australian returned for the Big Blue bashing of Sydney FC (4-0) on January 26, and received his sixth yellow card of the season.

Davidson is close to ending February without a booking, as he has avoided one in all four appearances so far this month, but I fear a seventh yellow is coming his way on Friday.

Dukuly, who is averaging 1.3 fouls won per game this season, has been upended five times across his last three matches, and his pace and trickery could pose big problems for veteran full-back Davidson at AAMI Park.

Both Teams to Score 2 or More Goals Yes/No - Yes @ 11/4

The two previous meetings this season finished 2-1 to the home side, but I'm hopeful of one or two more goals this Friday.

Both teams are in good form, with Victory winning 3-2 at Wellington Phoenix and 3-1 against Melbourne City either side of a 1-1 draw at home to Brisbane Roar, while Airton Andrioli's Adelaide have won back-to-back games away to Sydney FC (1-2) and at home to Perth Glory (4-0).

Both teams have scored two or more goals in three of Victory's 18 league matches this season, most recently in that success at Wellington's Sky Stadium on February 6, while it's also been a winning selection on four occasions for Adelaide, including their 3-2 home loss to Newcastle Jets on February 8.

Both head-to-heads last season saw Victory and Adelaide score at least twice, with a 3-2 win for the Reds at Coopers in January 2025 followed by a 5-3 triumph for Arthur Diles' Victory a couple of months later.

Adelaide have scored eight goals across their last three games, while it's seven in three for Victory, so both teams arrive to this contest in a confident goalscoring mood.

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