Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: All even at AAMI Park

It’s Melbourne derby time again, and with just two points separating Melbourne City (sixth) and Melbourne Victory (seventh) in the Australian A-League Men’s table, Saturday’s game (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 1) is delicately poised.

Below are my Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this AAMI Park encounter.

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Team News

January signing Harrison Delbridge, who spent three seasons at Melbourne City before moving to South Korean side Incheon in 2021, could make his second ALM debut for the club on Saturday after being included in Aurelio Vidmar’s extended squad.

Kavian Rahmani is also selected after returning from injury, but Mathew Leckie (hip), Andrew Nabbout (calf), Elbasan Rashani (hamstring) and Takeshi Kanamori (knee) are all still sidelined.

Football Odds

As for Melbourne Victory, Louis D’Arrigo (unspecified) is out injured, while Arthur Diles has omitted Oliver Dragicevic from his extended squad.

Melbourne City vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Melbourne City, who won the first derby of the season 2-0 in November, are slight underdogs on Saturday, with odds of 13/8 implying a 38.1% probability of success, while Melbourne Victory, who triumphed 1-0 in December’s head-to-head, are 7/5, or a 41.7% chance, to earn bragging rights.

The draw is offered at 11/5, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at ⅚.

Melbourne City To Score in Both Halves has been boosted from 5/2 to 7/2.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 5/6

This has tended to be one of the lowest-scoring games in the ALM over the last few years.

Seven of the last 10 Melbourne derbies, including the previous three, have gone under 2.5 goals.

At the time of writing, City (19) are the third-lowest scorers in the division this season, averaging 1.1 goals per game, although only Auckland and Sydney (both 18) have conceded fewer strikes than Vidmar’s side (21).

Today's Football Fixtures

Victory, meanwhile, have scored 24 goals, averaging 1.4 per game, and have conceded 22.

Both sides drew 1-1 last time out in the league, and considering the nerves likely to be present in Saturday’s contest, I think it’s worth backing under 2.5 goals again.

Match Result - Draw @ 11/5

I’m finding it difficult to separate the sides on Saturday.

Victory are in slightly better form, having picked up seven points from their last four games compared to City’s five, but it’s not a lot to write home about.

City, alongside Macarthur, are the ALM’s stalemate specialists this season, with seven of their 17 games so far ending on level terms, including the last two, while Victory have drawn three times, the most recent at AAMI Park to a struggling Brisbane Roar (1-1) side last Saturday.

Half (five) of the last 10 Melbourne derbies have finished all square, and that may be the way to go this weekend if you’re looking in the Match Result market.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (After GW17)

 P/L: +6.6%