Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar Prediction: AA to break down visitors

Central Coast Mariners extended their winless run to four games on Tuesday with a 2-1 defeat at Melbourne City, a result that leaves them seventh in the 12-team Australian A-League Men's standings ahead of the 24th round of fixtures this weekend. On Friday (10:35 GMT, TNT Sports 3), the Gosford club, who announced on Thursday that head coach Warren Moon will vacate his post at the end of the season, host a Brisbane Roar side who are one place and three points worse off, at Polytec Stadium.

Below are my Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, in the third and final instalment of this season's series; both previous meetings in 2025/26 have been won 2-1 by the away side.

Team News

Christian Theoharous, who has missed Central Coast Mariners' last eight games, returns to their extended squad following his return from injury, but Miguel Di Pizio, Alfie McCalmont, Seth Clark, Trent Sainsbury, Kaito Taniguchi and Will Kennedy (all unspecified) miss out for Moon's men.

Football Odds

As for Michael Valkanis' Brisbane Roar, Christopher Long (ankle), Nathan Amanatidis (quad), Nicholas D'Agostino and Milorad Stajic (both leg) miss out again due to injury.

Central Coast Mariners vs Brisbane Roar Odds

Despite home advantage, Central Coast Mariners are considered underdogs to win on Friday, with their odds of 9/5 implying a 35.7% probability of success, compared to Brisbane Roar's 5/4 price and 44.4% chance, while a first draw between the two teams since May 2021 is offered at 5/2.

Match Result - Central Coast Mariners @ 9/5

The Mariners are four games without a win, picking up just two points since beating Macarthur FC 3-1 away on March 4.

Brisbane, though, are on an even longer winless run, last tasting success in a 2-1 win at Perth Glory on January 16, claiming just four points from their last nine games (D4, L5).

Valkanis' side will be desperate to put more distance between themselves and bottom-of-the-table Western Sydney Wanderers, who are currently four points worse off, as they look to avoid the dreaded wooden spoon.

However, their motivation to win on Friday is unlikely to be as high as Central Coast's, with Moon's men still in contention to finish in the top six and secure finals football.

Today's Football Fixtures

Mathematically, Brisbane aren't out the race, but their chances of claiming a top-six spot are minimal.

Only the Wanderers (eight) have picked up fewer points on their travels this season than the Roar (12), who have lost three of their five away games this calendar year (W1, D1).

Brisbane won 2-1 in Gosford on December 31, but that was the Mariners' last defeat at Polytec Stadium, with 2026 bringing two wins and four draws on home soil.

It's CCM's last home match of the season, and their players will be desperate to end their Polytec Stadium campaign on a high, as well as boost their chances of reaching the Elimination Finals, so I'm seeing value in backing a home win on Friday at 9/5.

Anytime Goalscorer - Ali Auglah (CCM) @ 11/4

A-League great and former Socceroo Archie Thompson announced Mariners man Ali Auglah as his number one January signing of the season earlier this week, and while Western Sydney Wanderers supporters may put forward Ryan Fraser's name, it's difficult to argue with Thompson's choice.

Auglah, plucked mid-season from Sydney Olympic after scoring six goals in as many NPL NSW games, has struck four times in 11 appearances for the Mariners, including one in each outing this month against Perth Glory and Melbourne City to add to February efforts against Melbourne Victory and the Wanderers.

The 24-year-old id driving Central Coast's push for finals football, and 11/4 is a great price for him to net in a third consecutive contest.

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