Auckland vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Missing Mata to prove pivotal

Auckland FC and Melbourne Victory, both chasing a top-two finish in the Australian A-League Men's that would see them skip the Elimination Finals and guarantee a home-leg advantage in the semi-finals, face off at Go Media Stadium this Saturday (06:00 BST, TNT Sports 2).

Below are my Auckland vs Melbourne Victory predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, as the fourth-placed visitors look to cut down the five-point deficit between them and their second-placed hosts, with just two rounds of fixtures remaining after this weekend.

Team News

Three regular Auckland starters, left-back Francis de Vries (calf), goalkeeper Michael Woud (groin) and midfielder Jake Brimmer (calf), are all out injured, as is back-up shot-stopper Oli Sail (knee).

Football Odds

Melbourne Victory star Juan Mata recently underwent surgery after fracturing his left elbow and is set to sit out the rest of the regular ALM season.

Defender Sebastian Esposito, meanwhile, misses Saturday's match due to concussion.

Auckland vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Auckland haven't scored in their last two games against Melbourne Victory, but the Black Knights are 21/20 favourites to claim all three points this Saturday, implying a 48.8% probability of success, with an away win priced at 21/10 (32.3%), and a second stalemate of the season between the two teams offered at 13/5.

Match Result And Total Goals Over/Under 3.5 - Auckland & Under 3.5 @ 15/8

Goals have been sparse between Auckland and Victory, with their five meetings to date producing a total of five goals, and one or both have failed to score in all five, with a couple of goalless draws in there, the last coming in October's reverse fixture at AAMI Park.

Heading into this week's fixtures, only Brisbane Roar (87%) and Sydney FC (83%) have seen a higher percentage of their league games this season go under 3.5 goals than Auckland (78%), and while Victory are joint-third bottom of the Under 3.5 Goals standings, 61% is still a sizeable figure.

Two of Auckland's last three matches have seen exactly three goals scored, with a 2-1 win at Newcastle Jets and a defeat by the same scoreline at home to Macarthur FC followed by last week's 1-1 draw at Adelaide United.

Victory won back-to-back games 4-1 at home to Macarthur and Central Coast Mariners, but were brought back down to earth at AAMI Park last week by Wellington Phoenix, who flew back to New Zealand with all three points following a 1-0 success in Melbourne.

Today's Football Fixtures

With midfield magician Mata, who has registered five goals and 13 assists in 23 ALM appearances this season, missing at Go Media Stadium this Saturday, Victory are shorn of their main creative spark, and that is likely to nullify their threat.

Only four clubs have picked up fewer points on their travels this season than Victory (14), while only themselves and Adelaide United (both 21) have claimed more points at home than Auckland (18), who have played a game fewer than both.

After failing to triumph on home soil since February 28, and with top spot in sight, the Black Knights should have enough in their arsenal to collect all maximum points on Saturday.

Most Corners - Auckland @ 5/6

Victory (6.22) are averaging the most corners taken per game in this season's ALM, but their 6.55 average away from home matches Auckland's home average, and it's the Black Knights who have won the corner count in four of their five meetings, including October's reverse fixture in Melbourne, when they were responsible for taking the only two corners awarded.

Furthermore, only Perth Glory (seven) and Newcastle Jets (6.83) are averaging more corners conceded per away game than Victory (6.27), whose chances of working corners are likely to decrease this weekend following the injury sustained by Mata.

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