Auckland vs Adelaide United Prediction: Cosgrove to rough up the Reds again

After a 1-1 draw in regulation time of their Elimination Final with Melbourne City last weekend, Auckland FC grinded through extra time before winning 7-6 on penalties to set up a semi-final tie with Adelaide United, whose second-placed finish in the Australian A-League Men's saw them avoid the Elimination Finals.

Below are my Auckland vs Adelaide United predictions, alongside team news and match odds, ahead of this first leg from Go Media Stadium on Saturday (07:00 BST, TNT Sports 3).

Team News

Auckland have received a big boost this week as influential defender Francis de Vries returns from a calf injury which had kept him out of the Black Knights' last five games.

However, head coach Steve Corica is still without Oli Sail (knee), Felipe Gallegos (hamstring) and Marlee Francois (foot).

Football Odds

As for Adelaide United, striker Luka Jovanovic, who shared this season's Golden Boot with Auckland forward Sam Cosgrove, is suspended after receiving a red card in the Reds' final game of the regular campaign, a 2-1 win at Melbourne City on April 26.

Meanwhile, Ajak Riak (hamstring) and Dylan Pierias (knee) miss out for Airton Andrioli's side due to injury.

Auckland vs Adelaide United Odds

Auckland, who beat Adelaide United 2-1 at Go Media Stadium last November, are 19/20 favourites for the first leg, implying a 51.3% probability of success, while the Reds, who have failed to win any of their four previous meetings with the Black Knights (D3, L1), are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to take a lead back to Coopers Stadium next weekend.

A fourth draw in five head-to-heads can be backed at 13/5, while both teams to score is 8/13.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 11/10

Both games between Auckland and Adelaide last season were full of goals, with a 2-2 draw at Coopers followed by a 4-4 thriller at Go Media.

The two regular-season matches in 2025/26 have been less chaotic, with the Black Knights edging out the Reds 2-1 on home soil last November before the sides played out a 1-1 stalemate in Adelaide last month.

United have scored in their last 15 games, netting 30 times since a 4-0 defeat at home to Central Coast Mariners on January 4, but with leading marksman Jovanovic, who has struck 23.3% (seven) of their goals this calendar year, suspended for Saturday's match, their attack is blunted somewhat.

The Reds were struggling to break down Melbourne City's stubborn defence last time out before Jovanovic came off the bench and bagged a brace; now they face an Auckland side that conceded the second-fewest goals (29) in the league.

Today's Football Fixtures

The Black Knights haven't kept a clean sheet in their last eight games, offering the visitors some hope, but Adelaide haven't been too prolific on their travels, netting 21 times across 13 away trips, and three of their last five on the road have finished 1-1.

Auckland, meanwhile, have seen their last two home matches, including last weekend's Elimination Final, go under 2.5 goals, and they've only scored more than once in one of their last four games at Go Media.

As first legs often are, this could be cagey on Saturday, and so I see sense in backing under 2.5 goals at 5/4.

Player to Receive a Card - Sam Cosgrove (AKL) @ 11/5

Cosgrove was booked six times in the regular ALM season, with his sixth and most recent yellow coming against Adelaide last month.

The 29-year-old, who is averaging two fouls per game in the competition, only came on in the 63rd minute of his side's Elimination Final against Melbourne City, but I'm expecting him to start on Saturday, making him a prime candidate in the Player to Receive a Card market.

Cosgrove committed three fouls at Coopers in April, and the Englishman will be looking to rough up the Reds defenders again this weekend.

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