Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory Prediction: Rotten Reds not to be relied upon in Original Rivalry

The second Original Rivalry of the 2025/25 Australian A-League Men's season takes place at Coopers Stadium on Saturday (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 1), with hosts Adelaide United looking to exact revenge after losing 2-1 at AAMI Park last month.

Below are my Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory predictions, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

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New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Team News

Ethan Alagich, Luka Jovanovic and Yaya Dukuly are all on international duty with Australia at the 2026 AFC Asian Cup in Saudi Arabia, while Dylan Pierias is out for the long term with a knee injury.

Head Coach Airton Andrioli has made two changes to his extended squad following last week’s 2-2 draw away to Wellington Phoenix, with new signing Ajak Riak coming straight into the fold, along with Brody Burkitt.

Jake Najdovski and Vink Stanisic have dropped out to make way for the duo.

Football Odds

Melbourne Victory boss Arthur Diles is without suspended defender Jason Davidson, who picked up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in last Saturday's 1-0 home defeat to Western Sydney Wanderers, so Lachlan Jackson could earn a promotion to the starting XI this weekend.

Brendan Hamill (knee) and Roderick Miranda (unspecified) are confined to the Victory medical bay, while Joshua Rawlins and Jordi Valadon are also at the 2026 AFC Asian Cup.

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory Odds

Adelaide United, winless in 2026 so far (D1, L1), are 15/8 to claim their first success of the calendar year on Saturday, implying a 34.8% probability, while Melbourne Victory are 23/20, or a 46.5% chance, to do the home-and-away double over the Reds, although there is a third fixture still to come at AAMI Park on February 27.

A first draw between the two teams since November 2023 is priced at 12/5, and both teams to score for a fourth consecutive head-to-head is offered at 1/2.

Bet Builder - Adelaide United & Melbourne Victory 5+ Corners Each @ 7/5

Heading into Round 13, Victory (5.58) and Adelaide (5.50) are averaging the third and fourth most corners taken per game, respectively.

Adelaide (4.92) are averaging just under five conceded per game, too, while Victory (4.42) are averaging the second-fewest conceded per game, but aren't a world apart from their next opponents.

Today's Football Fixtures

In last month's head-to-head, both sides took five corners apiece, which is what we need to land the above Bet Builder.

Both teams to take 5+ corners each has landed in four of the last five meetings, and in the only one where it failed to come in, Victory's 5-3 win at AAMI Park last March, it was mightily close to being a winner as the hosts won four to Adelaide's five.

Away Team Total Goals - Over 1.5 @ 4/5

Adelaide have shipped eight goals across their last three games, conceding at least twice in all three, and they've conceded 2+ goals in eight of their 12 ALM matches for the season.

Victory only scored twice in one of their first seven games, but have managed to net 2+ times in three of their last five, including three of their last four as the home side at AAMI Park.

Diles' charges struck at least twice in all three head-to-heads in 2025, scoring seven times across two games at AAMI Park (2-1, 5-3), and their attacking stars, like Nishan Velupillay, Juan Mata and Nikos Vergos, will be sensing an opportunity to improve their goal returns on Saturday.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season (After GW12)

 P/L: +9.23%