Adelaide United vs Melbourne City Prediction: BTTS-No to strike again in this fixture?

The Australian A-League Men's returns on Friday (08:35 GMT, TNT Sports 2) at Coopers Stadium, where hosts Adelaide United take on Melbourne City. After four rounds of fixtures, the two teams are separated by a couple of points, with the Reds (W2, L2) sat in sixth, and unbeaten City (W2, D2) in third.

Below are my Adelaide United vs Melbourne City predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Off-season signing Anselmo de Moraes is now in full training and will be available for Adelaide United's home game against Brisbane Roar on December 7, but Friday's match and next weekend's trip to Wellington Phoenix come too soon for the Brazilian.

There is just one change to the extended Reds squad that was selected for their 2-0 victory over Western Sydney Wanderers last time out, with Joey Garuccio coming in to replace Jake Najdovski.

Football Odds

Melbourne City captain Aziz Behich has been cleared to return from the hamstring issue that sidelined him for the past three matches. He will likely return to the starting XI on Friday, taking the place of fellow full-back Nathaniel Atkinson, who misses out after suffering a hamstring injury of his own in the 2-0 Melbourne derby win over Melbourne Victory just before the October international break.

Medin Memeti has been named in the extended squad for the first time this season, having overcome a pre-season hamstring setback, and he's joined by 19-year-old defender Ryan Kalms, who has earned a promotion.

Mathew Leckie, Samuel Souprayen and Elbasan Rashani are all expected to push for selection in the coming weeks as they work back from hamstring injuries, but they all miss out this Friday alongside Alessandro Lopane (ankle), James Nieuwenhuizen (ACL) and Lawrence Wong (MCL).

Adelaide United vs Melbourne City Odds

Adelaide, who have won the last three head-to-heads at Coopers, are 7/4 underdogs on Friday, implying a 36.4% probability of success, while Melbourne City, who haven't beaten the Reds in Adelaide since December 2018, are 5/4, or a 44.4% chance, to secure a long-awaited away victory over the South Australia side.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 3.5 goals at 13/8.

Both Teams To Score - No @ 11/8

I tossed and turned over this selection. On the one hand, you have the third-highest scorers in last season's ALM, Adelaide, who have found the net in all four league games this season, with both teams scoring in the first three.

On the other hand, you have Melbourne City, who boasted the meanest defence in the 2024/25 campaign and have conceded just once in their first four ALM matches this term, with a fourth consecutive clean sheet in sight this week.

Today's Football Fixtures

Crucially, though, both head-to-heads last season, played on February 7 and April 26 this calendar year, respectively, saw BTTS-No emerge as a winning selection, and in fact, the last four meetings between the two teams have seen at least one fail to score.

The last three head-to-heads have produced a combined total of two goals, with Melbourne City winning 1-0 at AAMI Park in January 2024 before Adelaide got the revenge just over a year later, triumphing by the same scoreline at Coopers.

Last time out, at AAMI Park in April, the Reds and City played out a goalless draw, which was the last time that the former failed to score in a game.

City might fancy their chances of arresting Adelaide's scoring run, having kept out Perth Glory (4-0), Brisbane Roar (0-0) and Melbourne Victory (0-0) over the last month. Of course, Perth Glory and Brisbane Roar aren't exactly elite opposition, but Victory, who finished fifth last season, five points ahead of the Reds, had scored twice in their last two games.

Considering this is a bet that has landed in the last four head-to-heads, I think we're getting great value on BTTS-No this Friday at 11/8.

Team With Most Booking Points - Melbourne City @ 23/20

Melbourne City have received eight yellow cards in the ALM this season, amounting to 80 booking points, going by the Betfred system, which awards 10 for every booking.

Aurelio Vidmar's side equalled Western Sydney Wanderers and Perth Glory's tally of 20 booking points in their opening two games, and last time out, in the Melbourne derby, they racked up 30 booking points, 10 more than their bitter rivals, Victory (20).

Adelaide, meanwhile, have only picked up five yellows (50 booking points) across their four games, managing to avoid any cautions in their 2-1 win against Sydney FC on October 17. The Sky Blues received two yellows in that match, and on November 1, Auckland FC became the second and latest side to receive the most booking points in a contest with the Reds, earning two yellows to their opponents' one.

In last season's corresponding fixture at Coopers, the home side were handed just a single yellow, to Stefan Mauk, who departed the club on loan in July. Furthermore, two of their three booked players at AAMI Park in April, Zach Clough and Isaias, have left for Malaysia and retired, respectively.

Nick Ware P/L 25/26 ALM Season

 P/L: +40.8