Auckland vs Melbourne City Prediction: Black Knights to fall short again

Auckland made a stunning start to life in the Australian A-League Men's, winning their first six games, the first five without conceding. However, the Black Knights have won just one of their last five and arrive into Saturday's contest against leaders Melbourne City on the back of a 1-0 defeat to second-bottom Perth Glory.

Below is my Auckland vs Melbourne City prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of Saturday's clash at Go Media Stadium (04:00, TNT Sports 2).

Team News

Auckland captain Hiroki Sakai suffered a head injury against Perth Glory and will miss Saturday's game as he serves a minimum eight-day stand-down period in line with A-Leagues concussion protocol. The 34-year-old right-back was replaced by Callan Elliot just before half-time last weekend and Elliot is likely to take his place in the starting XI against Melbourne City.

Football Odds

Melbourne City star Mathew Leckie has missed his side's last eight games through injury but has been named in Saturday's squad and is in line for a first appearance since November 10.

However, Jimmy Jeggo, Yonatan Cohen, Andrew Nabbout, Max Caputo, Alessandro Lopane, Marco Tilio, Andreas Kuen and Jayden Necovski remain in the City treatment room.

Auckland vs Melbourne City Odds

Auckland are 21/20 to triumph for the first time in 2025 after following up a goalless draw with Melbourne Victory on New Year's Day by losing to Perth Glory last weekend. Those odds give the Black Knights an implied win probability of 48.8% while Melbourne City are 9/4, or a 30.8% chance, to record a fourth consecutive success following a hat-trick of calendar year wins over Wellington Phoenix, Western United (both 2-0) and Brisbane Roar (1-0).

The draw, which landed in the first-ever meeting between the sides at AAMI Park on December 15 (2-2), is priced at 11/5, and both teams to score again is available at 8/11.

Auckland's Guillermo May, who scored in the reverse fixture, is joint-favourite in the anytime goalscorer market (15/8) alongside fellow Black Knights forward Max Mata, who is yet to get off the mark for the club. 17-year-old Medin Memeti, who has scored twice for Melbourne City this season, is first up in the market for the visitors at 11/4.

Draw No Bet - Melbourne City @ 11/8

Melbourne City's injury issues are well known and Auckland will be itching to return to winning ways after two games without a victory, but even with this knowledge, I think we're getting a great price on the visitors in the 'Draw No Bet' market.

Aurelio Vidmar's side have won all three matches in 2025 without conceding a goal and are now unbeaten in their seven games. They've lost just two of their 12 ALM games this season and both of those defeats came at home, winning four of their six away contests, and one of their 'away' draws came at AAMI Park against Melbourne Victory (1-1), who they stadium share with, so they've only actually dropped points once away from their ground.

Auckland kicked off their campaign with four straight home wins but have taken just one point from their last two at Go Media Stadium, losing 4-0 to Western United on December 21 before playing out a goalless draw with Melbourne Victory on January 1. The Black Knights have failed to score in three of their last four games and as well as looking toothless up front, have now lost key defender and captain Sakai to concussion.

City have kept six clean sheets this season and are looking to record a fourth consecutive shutout on Saturday, while they have scored in all 12 league games so far this season.

Considering all of the above, 9/4 is a tempting price for City to claim all three points in New Zealand, although I prefer to take the insurance policy of Draw No Bet, meaning that if the sides play out a second stalemate, your stake will be returned.

Corners Over/Under - Under 9.5 @ 11/8

There were just six corners, equally shared, when Auckland and Melbourne City met at AAMI Park last month, and while the Black Knights are averaging the second-most corners taken per game (5.8), only Brisbane Roar (3.6) are averaging fewer than City (3.9), who have seen under 9.5 total corners land in 66.7 per cent of their league matches this season.

Under 9.5 total corners has only been a winning selection in 36.4 per cent of Auckland's 11 games but considering there were just six taken between these sides in Melbourne, I think nine or fewer at 11/8 is a price worth taking on Saturday.

Offers

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