Atletico vs Real Prediction: Expect action in third Madrid Derby in a month

 | January 17 | 

6 mins read

Mark Sochon's La Liga Tips

These two sides certainly aren't strangers and for the third time in less than a month, they face one another and for the third time in a month, Mark Sochon is here to preview the encounter, this time in the Copa Del Rey...

Atletico vs Real Madrid Betting Tips:

  • Back the Draw in the Match Result market @ 23/10
  • Back Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11

Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are not exactly unfamiliar with each other, given they share the same city and have met on just about every possible domestic and European stage in recent years.

However even by their standards, three Madrid derbies in the space of three and a half weeks is going some, with this Copa del Rey Last 16 tie the second edition of this derby trilogy.

If it’s as good as last week’s Spanish Super Cup Semi-Final, we could be in for a real treat with Real Madrid 5-3 victors in Saudi Arabia after Extra Time last Wednesday.

It was a bizarre game in many respects. Antonio Rudiger scored at both ends while defenders Ferland Mendy, Dani Carvajal and Mario Hermoso were also on target with Antoine Griezmann the only starting midfielder or forward to score.

That goal made the Frenchman Atletico Madrid’s all-time leading goalscorer, surpassing the tally of Luis Aragones. Griezmann was also on target when Atletico Madrid beat their rivals 3-1 in the league meeting earlier this season at the Estadio Metropolitano and in an otherwise assured defensive campaign, it has been their neighbours who have caused the most problems for this Real Madrid back-line.

Atleti can at least take heart from that as they approach a game which is more important for them than it is Real Madrid. While Los Blancos are favourites to win La Liga and have already won some silverware after thrashing Barcelona 4-1 in the Super Cup Final on Sunday, the Copa del Rey is now perhaps Atleti’s only realistic chance of winning a trophy.

They’ve had a nice break to prepare for this having not played since the derby in Riyadh, but it may take more than eight days to fix their current defensive issues.

This team is a far cry from the Atletico Madrid of the 2010’s when there was barely a team in Europe that could match them in terms of their ability to keep clean sheets and deny opponents’ chances.

In the last month alone, they’ve been outplayed in a 2-0 defeat in Bilbao, conceded three against Getafe, four against Girona and five against Real Madrid. Right now, Diego Simeone doesn’t feel like a man with any answers to those problems and the visit of their neighbours and a red-hot Vinicius Junior is perhaps the last thing he needs right now.

Vinicius was electric in El Clasico, scoring a First Half hat-trick to effectively kill off Barcelona before the interval with the Brazilian looking anything but a man who’d spent much of the previous few months on the sidelines due to injury.

Such was Real Madrid’s dominance that Carlo Ancelotti was able to withdraw the likes of Vinicius, Rodrygo, Jude Bellingham and Toni Kroos in the latter stages with an eye on this game. That result means it’s now just one defeat in 28 matches in all competitions for Real Madrid this season, although that solitary loss did come on this ground.

Team News:

Atletico Madrid will go as strong as possible and they can’t really attribute any of their current problems to injuries. Even the rarely fit Jose Maria Gimenez has been able to take his place in central defence in recent weeks but they continue to leak far too many goals.

Long-term absentee Thomas Lemar and AFCON participant Reinildo are unavailable here, but Diego Simeone should be in a position to name his best eleven, although right now it’s far from clear what that is with a number of players doing a good job of playing themselves out of this team.

As for Real Madrid, they’ll be happy to have returned from Saudi Arabia with nine goals scored against their biggest rivals and without any fresh injuries. Thibaut Courtois, David Alaba, Lucas Vazquez and Eder Militao remain sidelined but they could potentially name the same starting eleven that beat Barcelona on Sunday.

A home game against rock bottom Almeria in La Liga this coming weekend may provide a better chance for Ancelotti to rest players, although he may still opt for some light rotation here with Luka Modric and Eduardo Camavinga perhaps the most likely candidates to come into the team.

Atletico vs Real Madrid Odds:

Real Madrid are the 11/8 favourites to win this match in 90 minutes. Atletico Madrid are available at 13/8 while the Draw is a tempting 23/10.

You can back Vinicius Junior to build on his weekend hat-trick by scoring anytime at 15/8 while the Brazilian is priced at 66/1 to score three or more for the second game running.

Alvaro Morata, who has netted 17 times already for Atleti this season, is the 13/8 favourite to score anytime while Antoine Griezman is available at 9/5 to score anytime.

Jude Bellingham is looking for his first Madrid derby goal and the England man is 13/2 to score first and 11/5 to score anytime in this game.

Goals certainly look likely here and you can back there to be Over 2.5 Goals at 8/11 while a repeat of last Wednesday’s 3-3 Draw in regulation time is priced at 40/1.

Bet 1 - Draw @ 23/10

Real Madrid are certainly the stronger of these teams, but punters will need to consider the problems they have had against Atletico this season with Diego Simeone’s men scoring three in each of the two clashes.

The Metropolitano crowd is also capable of playing its part and this is likely to be tougher than either of the Supercopa games for Real Madrid which felt like home fixtures at times given their popularity in the Middle East.

It’s also worth considering the recent history of cup meetings between this pair. During Diego Simeone’s long tenure as Atletico boss, his team have played Real Madrid in seven one-off knockout fixtures and every single time Extra Time has been required to settle it.

That run includes two Champions League Finals, as well as a Copa del Rey Quarter Final last January which Real Madrid ultimately prevailed in. Given all that, backing the Draw at 23/10 in the Full Time Result market looks really good here.

Bet 2 - Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Goals @ 10/11

Both sides have defensive flaws, particularly Atletico but there are also doubts about Real Madrid since David Alaba’s injury and with uncertainty over who their first choice goalkeeper should be in Thibaut Courtois’ absence.

Both sides also have plenty of goal threats, with Griezmann and Morata one of the most deadly strike duos in Europe this term while Real Madrid are scoring goals from all over the pitch at the moment.

Backing Both Teams to Score and Over 2.5 Goals has been a winning bet in the two Madrid derbies so far this season and it looks good again at 10/11 here.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...

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