Atletico Mineiro vs Caracas: Brazilians to bounce back in style

Atletico Mineiro need a point to secure top spot in Copa Libertadores Group G on Tuesday (KO, 23:00), and they couldn't wish for more ideal opponents at the MRV Arena than Caracas, who have taken just a single point from their first five games.

Read below for my Atletico Mineiro vs Caracas prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds heading into Tuesday's clash in Belo Horizonte.

Atletico won their first four group games, including an opening day 4-1 victory in Venezuela against Tuesday's opponents. However, a defeat to Penarol in Uruguay last time out in the competition has put their top spot under threat, and they must avoid defeat in their final game to make sure of their position.

Caracas, meanwhile, have endured a dismal Copa Libertadores campaign, picking up just a single point so far, and with third-placed Rosario six points in front, the consolation prize of the Copa Sudamerica is also out of bounds.

Team News

Atletico have played just once since their loss to Penarol on May 14, due to the suspension of the Brazilian top-flight. After a nine-day break, they resumed action in the Copa do Brasil on Thursday, losing 1-0 to Sport Recife but progressing 2-1 on aggregate.

Hulk wasn't in the squad but is expected to return on Tuesday, and he will be looking to break out of a nine-game barren run in front of goal.

The club confirmed on Friday that midfielder Paulo Vitor is in the final stages of recovery from an injury to his left ankle, while full-back Rubens and midfielder Otavio remain sidelined.

It's been even longer since Caracas last played, with no games since their 4-1 defeat to Rosario in Argentina on May 16. 20-year-old forward Ender Echenique scored a consolation as a substitute in that loss and will be pushing for a start in Belo Horizonte.

Atletico Mineiro vs Caracas Odds

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The hosts are heavy favourites at 1/14 to take all three points on Tuesday, giving them an implied win probability of 93.3%, while the visitors are 18/1, or a 5.3% chance, to claim a famous victory.

The draw can be backed at 15/2, both teams to score at 13/8, and over 2.5 total goals at 2/5.

Atletico Mineiro & over 3.5 total goals @ 23/20

It would be a major shock if the Brazilians weren't to win on Tuesday given the disparity in talent between the sides, what's at stake for Atletico, and the home advantage they will enjoy.

Pride is all Caracas have left to play for, but their away form so far doesn't bode well. They've shipped nine in two games on their travels, losing 5-0 to Penarol in Uruguay before being thrashed 4-1 in Argentina by Rosario.

Atletico, meanwhile, beat Rosario 2-1 in Belo Horizonte in their first home match and edged out Penarol 3-2 in their second.

There were five goals scored in April's reverse fixture between these sides as Atletico won 4-1, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them at least match the number they scored in that game.

Atletico Mineiro to win both halves @ 4/5

Caracas have lost each half of football they have played away from home in Group G. The Venezuelans went into half-time 4-0 down against Penarol, who added a fifth without reply in the second 45 minutes, before going 2-0 down heading into the interval in Rosario, and the Argentinians added another couple in the second half, conceding just once.

I think Atletico will race into an early lead on Tuesday, and they could grab another one or two before half-time, and with their opponents' confidence shot to pieces, they could rack up the goals in the second half, too.

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