Atletico Madrid vs Real Valladolid Prediction: Alvarez at the double

Monday night football in La Liga comes from Madrid this week as Atletico Madrid host Real Valladolid at Riyadh Air Metropolitano (20:00, La Liga TV). Diego Simeone's side beat Sevilla 2-1 last time out, but two defeats in March look to have done the damage to their title hopes. 

The visitors, meanwhile, are destined for the drop as they are 14 points off safety with eight rounds of fixtures remaining. Below are my Atletico Madrid vs Real Valladolid predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Samuel Lino (muscle) and Rodrigo de Paul (thigh), who both missed Atletico's victory in Seville due to injury, are doubtful for Monday's game, while Angel Correa is suspended.

Javi Galan, Reinildo Mandava and Alexander Sorloth are among those eyeing promotions from the substitute bench.

Football Odds

Koke and Thomas Lemar made their returns from injury against Sevilla, and both players will be looking to receive more minutes on Monday.

Karl Hein has missed Valladolid's last two games with a shoulder injury, and the Estonian goalkeeper will be absent again on Monday.

Spanish midfielder Mario Martin was sent off in his side's 4-0 defeat to Getafe last time out, and the 21-year-old is suspended for this trip to the capital.

Atletico Madrid vs Real Valladolid Odds

Atletico have won the last six head-to-heads, including November's reverse fixture at the Estadio Jose Zorrilla, where they thrashed Valladolid 5-0. Los Rojiblancos are 1/8 to the double over their opponents, implying an 88.9% probability of success, while the visitors are 20/1, or a 4.8% chance, to triumph on their league travels for the first time since October 18.

The draw is priced at 15/2, both teams to score at 6/4, and over 3.5 total goals at 11/10.

Alexander Sorloth (7/10) and Julian Alvarez (8/11) head the anytime goalscorer market for Monday's match, with Mamadou Sylla (11/2) considered most likely to find the net for Valladolid.

Team With Most Booking Points - Real Valladolid @ 5/6

Only Getafe (91), Las Palmas (90) and Alaves (84) have been shown more yellow cards than Real Valladolid (82) in this season's La Liga, while only Mallorca (six) have received more reds than Pucela (five).

Atletico, meanwhile, have seen three players dismissed in 2024/25, and Simeone's side are joint-11th in the yellow card table with 69. They've only been shown 30 booking points across their last two games, while Valladolid were shown 55 in their most recent match alone (85 across their last two outings).

Valladolid have been the team with the most booking points in three of their last four games, and given Atletico are expected to dominate proceedings on Monday night, I expect the visitors to make it four in five.

Player to Score Two or More Goals - Julian Alvarez (ATM) @ 7/2

Atletico and Argentina forward Alvarez struck his 12th La Liga goal of the campaign last weekend as Simeone's side sunk Sevilla at the Estadio Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan. The 25-year-old has also scored five times in the Copa del Rey and seven times in the Uefa Champions League, taking his season total for Atletico to 24.

Number 25 should be right around the corner for Alvarez, and I can even see number 26 arriving on Monday.

Valladolid are 12 points adrift of 19th-placed Leganes, and relegation is a formality for them. They've shipped 69 goals - at least 17 more than any other club in La Liga this season - and their defence was breached four times by Getafe last time out.

They were hit for five earlier in the campaign by Atletico, a game in which Alvarez scored once before being taken off in the 64th minute. I think the Argentina international will get even more minutes in the reverse fixture, and a fifth brace since joining the club last summer looks like a possibility.

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