Atleti vs Real Madrid Prediction: Julian Alvarez can score again

The most interesting game on Wednesday night in the Champions League is surely the second-leg of the Madrid Derby as Atleti try to take out their all-conquering city neighbours Real Madrid.

It is no surprise that we gave this preview to our Madrid-based La Liga Betting Expert and Mark Sochon takes us through the team news for the two sides along with his Atleti vs Real Madrid Predictions for us at Betfred Insights...

*You can check out all of the Football Odds we offer over at betfred.com

Real Madrid take a one-goal advantage into the second leg of their derby clash with Atlético in the Champions League round-of-16. 

They won 2-1 at the Santiago Bernabéu last week in a game of great goals, but relatively few clear chances. Rodrygo's screamer put Los Blancos ahead in just the fourth minute, but the impressive Julián Alvarez levelled things up with a brilliant strike of his own. 

Brahim Díaz won the game for Los Blancos after the break, but it was a really competitive match between two sides that know each other so well, and everything points to a similar affair this week on the other side of the Spanish capital. 

The Estadio Metropolitano will be rocking on Wednesday as it hosts a Derbi madrileño in the Champions League for the first time.  

The last time Real Madrid visited their neighbours in this competition was the second leg of a semi-final back in 2017. Atleti won that match 2-1 at the Vicente Calderón, with Antoine Griezmann among the scorers, but lost the tie 4-2. 

All five previous European Cup or Champions League ties between the clubs have been won by Real Madrid, so history very much favours the visitors, but there has been a lot to like about Diego Simeone's side this season, and they'll really be in business if they can get the first goal in this match. 

Atleti can certainly take confidence from their home record. They've only lost one of their 19 matches at the Metropolitano this season.  

That was back in October when Lille triumphed 3-1 in the league phase of the Champions League, with forwards Griezmann, Alvarez and Alexander Sørloth all starters that night at a time when Simeone was still searching for answers, and tweaking his system on a weekly basis. 

A league defeat at Real Betis immediately followed that, but then Atleti went on a club record 15-game winning run, with Simeone reverting to the 4-4-2 system that delivered so much success for the club at home and abroad during the 2010s. 

With Griezmann and Alvarez the first choice strike pairing, and 14-goal Sørloth making an impact off the bench, this Atlético Madrid side is not short on attacking weapons, but this has been by far their worst week since those successive defeats in the autumn. 

Their first-leg defeat at the Bernabéu was followed by another derby at Getafe in La Liga. Simeone resisted the urge to rest players and went with a strong lineup and his side took the lead in a tight game thanks to a 75th minute Sørloth penalty. However, Atleti's match and potentially their league title challenge collapsed in the final stages, with Ángel Correa's 88th minute red card the catalyst for a stunning late rally from Getafe who won the game 2-1 at the death. 

Real Madrid did win their weekend match, with a 2-1 home victory over Rayo Vallecano thanks to first-half goals from Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior. They leapfrogged Atleti in the league standings as a result, but it's no secret that the Champions League is always the competition that takes priority in the white half of Madrid, and this is the biggest game of their season to date. 

The 2023/24 European champions made a slow start to their title defence, losing three of their opening five fixtures in the new league phase. However, Carlo Ancelotti's side have reeled off six straight Champions League victories since then, with 19 goals scored across that period. They were much too good for Manchester City in the play-off round, with Mbappé scoring four of the goals in a dominant 6-3 aggregate win.  

The Frenchman has had his critics since making his long-awaited move to Madrid last summer, but with 15 goals in his last 15 games, his form has certainly picked up. Mbappé should be a huge threat on the break in this game, with the initial onus on Atleti to push forwards and chase the goal that would level up this tie. 

Team News: 

Atlético Madrid have a doubt over centre-back Clément Lenglet, but assuming he's passed fit, it could be the same starting lineup that competed well at the Bernabéu. 

The injured Koke is the only player expected to be unavailable for the hosts, but youngster Pablo Barrios has been preferred as the partner to Rodrigo De Paul in the centre of the park this term in any case. 

Real Madrid are in a stronger position for the second leg, by virtue of Jude Bellingham's availability following suspension. He's likely to replace Brahim on the left flank in what could be the only change from the first leg for the visitors. 

There are no fresh injury problems for Ancelotti, but Dani Ceballos, Éder Militão and Dani Carvajal remain sidelined. 

Atleti vs Real Madrid Odds

These derbies are invariably close affairs, and there's very little to choose between the teams in the Match Result market here. Atlético Madrid are the very slight favourites at 6/4, while Real Madrid are priced at 13/8.  

Punters may find more value in the Draw at 11/4, given seven of the last nine meetings in all competitions have ended level after 90 minutes. You can also back Both teams to score at 4/7, a winning bet in each of the last 10 Madrid derbies. 

Los Blancos are the 1/3 favourites to win the tie overall, while you can back Real Madrid to win either half of this match at 4/5. You can back Over 1.5 away team goals at 11/10. 

If you're expecting the home team to get the job done inside 90 minutes, you can back Atlético Madrid -1.00 Handicap at 4/1, while Simeone's men are priced at 11/5 to score in both halves. 

Atleti's chances of progress may largely depend on their ability to keep Mbappé quiet. The visiting forward is the 9/2 favourite to score first, while he's available at 7/5 to score anytime. You can also back Vinícius to score anytime at 2/1, while Bellingham is on offer at 3/1 in the same market.  

The home team may look to super sub Sørloth if they need a late goal, and the Norwegian is priced at 11/2 to score last, with 79% of his goals this season having come after the 60th minute. 

Bet 1 - Atlético Madrid or Draw & Over 39.5 booking points @ 1/1

Real Madrid may have won the first leg, but they by no means showcased any real superiority over their city rivals. That has tended to be the case in recent years, and prior to last week, Los Blancos had failed to win any of the previous eight derbies in regulation time. 

They may very well still find a way through here, but Atleti are a force to be reckoned with in front of their own fans, and at the very least they look capable of avoiding defeat in 90 minutes. 

While the two meetings so far in 2025 have not been especially dirty, the stakes are much higher here and there has been a bit of bad blood boiling up between the two clubs off the pitch. There's certainly the potential for tensions to flare in what's sure to be a hostile atmosphere, and I'm using the Bet Builder to back Atlético Madrid or Draw and Over 39.5 booking points at 1/1. 

Bet 2 - Julián Alvarez to score anytime @ 7/4

A few eyebrows were raised at the €75m fee that accompanied Alvarez's move from Manchester City to Atleti last summer. He took a little bit of time to find his place at his new club, but over the past few months, the 25-year-old has really stepped up his game and he's starting to look like a genuine world class forward. 

He's already on 22 goals in all competitions, with seven of those coming in the Champions League. That's a very healthy return in a side coached by Simeone, and he has been regularly delivering in the big games. 

Alvarez has netted in the two Madrid derbies so far in 2025, while it was also the Argentina international who scored the two goals in 10-man Atleti's key 2-1 comeback win over Bayer Leverkusen in their last European match at the Estadio Metropolitano. 

He looks full of confidence right now, and I'm backing Julián Alvarez to score anytime at 7/4 here. 

Mark Sochon primarily covers Spanish Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out Mark's Football Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...