Atalanta vs Torino Prediction: 18/5 Retegui to continue blistering season

After a fantastic showing against Barcelona in midweek didn’t quite get them the automatic Champions League progression they wanted, Atalanta are back to Serie A action against Torino at the Gewiss Stadium on Saturday (18:00 local, 17:00 GMT).

La Dea have seen their title challenge slide away somewhat in recent weeks, so a win is imperative if they are to stay on Napoli and Inter Milan’s coattails. Here are my Atalanta vs Torino predictions follow, complete with full preview and match odds.

Team News

Wednesday night’s 2-2 draw in Barcelona left Atalanta with a lot of memories but almost as many injury worries too.

Sead Kolasinac and Giorgio Scalvini both left the field at Montjuic, with the latter being stretchered off with a shoulder problem late in the game.

That exit left the Orobici to end the match with 10 players, and meant Scalvini neither started nor finished the contest having replaced a limping Kolasinac early in the second half.

They join Odilon Kossounou (adductor) and knee-injury absentees Gianluca Scamacca and Ademola Lookman on the sidelines as Gian Piero Gasperini aims to get his side back up alongside the leading pair in Serie A.

Isak Hien was back in action against Barca after serving a domestic ban and should start at centre-back on Saturday.

Toro also have a defender returning from suspension in the person of Ali Dembele, while former Napoli star Eljif Elmas will be among the travelling party having been signed from RB Leipzig in midweek.

Paolo Vanoli is without a number of players though, with Duvan Zapata and Perr Schuurs both long-term absentees after undergoing knee operations earlier in the season and Ivan Ilic (muscle) and Mergim Vojvoda (calf) each missing out due to newer concerns.

Atalanta vs Torino Odds

As the team sat in third, with a two-legged Champions League tie against Club Brugge on the horizon, Atalanta are the understandable 4/9 favourites with Betfred. That, however, means we’re on the lookout elsewhere for real value.

The draw at 100/30 appears tasty, with the implied probability of 23.1% flying in the face of the Orobici’s three such results in their last five league games, not to mention that mirroring their midweek result against the Blaugrana.

The 7/1 offered for a Torino win is worth considering given that the Granata have already turned Atalanta over once this season in the return fixture back in August.

It’s 11/10 for both teams to score, which is on the generous side, while it’s 12/5 if you combine that with an Atalanta win, implying a 29.4% chance of that outcome.

Atalanta & BTTS @ 12/5

That’s the pick I’m going for first up. While on the one hand Gasperini’s side have won just one in five in the league, their victory at Como and more-than-creditable performance against Barcelona over the past week suggest a turning point.

And while they did fall to Toro in the previous clash between these two, I think they’ve got too much for them this time around. That August defeat was part of a slow start. This game comes at an altogether different point.

They do still ship goals though. In eight of their 22 games this season they have conceded at least once. That’s at a 36% clip, and when you take in the fact that they have won 14 so far, a BTTS win comes in more than half of the time.

So I’m happy to suggest that La Dea pick up another win and keep up the uptick in form, but ship enough chances at the other end that Torino find the net too.

It’s a 12/5 call, and that 29.4% seems on the light side given Atalanta’s tendency in 2024/25.

Football Odds

Mateo Retegui last goalscorer @ 18/5

It takes a massive ego to quote oneself, so with that in mind check out what I said last week... “If, like me, you have Serie A goal alerts set up, Mateo Retegui’s name likely pops up more often on your smartphone than even your nearest and dearest’s.”

The problem with Retegui netting twice at Como last week after I’d tipped him to score at anytime is that there’s next to no value in backing him to do similar at 6/5 this week on the back of his four goals in three Serie A games and league-leading 16 in total.

But if you tie in the fact that Atalanta have picked up more points from losing positions (15) than anyone else in the league, I think we can find a better price for ourselves by looking in the ‘last goalscorer’ column.

I don’t want to go for Retegui first since I think Toro might catch La Dea out early, so I’m happy to go with him to round off the scoring for a fifth time in the 2024/25 league campaign. At 18/5, there's something there for the punter.

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