Aston Villa vs Everton Prediction: Duran Du-man

Aston Villa will be looking to secure back-to-back wins in the Premier League for the first time this season when they host Everton at Villa Park on Saturday (17:30, Sky Sports Main Event). Unai Emery's side have won two of their three games so far and will hope to build on that in the coming weeks.

Everton are rock bottom having lost all three of their matches so far and already the supporters are frustrated, as another tough season looks to be in store. Read on for my Aston Villa vs Everton prediction, accompanied by match odds and team news.

Aston Villa vs Everton Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Aston Villa vs Everton page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Aston Villa are 8/15 to win this contest, which gives them an implied probability of 65.2%. Everton are valued at 11/2, or a 15.4% chance. The draw can be backed at 100/30 (23.1%).

Both teams to score is available at 8/11 and over 2.5 goals is marketed at 8/13.

Football Odds

Team News

Villa have been boosted by the returns of Diego Carlos and Jaden Philogene from injury, but Leon Bailey and Matty Cash are now in the treatment room. Tyrone Mings is building his fitness up after a long injury lay-off, as is Boubacar Kamara.

Ollie Watkins pulled out of England duty with an injury so an opportunity could present itself for Jhon Duran to start up front.

Everton could hand a debut to new signing Orel Mangala this weekend but Armando Broja is a few weeks away from making his debut. Seamus Coleman, Jarrad Branthwaite and Nathan Patterson are doubts to feature due to injury.

Everton 1+ handicap @ 6/4

Hear me out. Everton have had a miserable start to the campaign but there were signs of progress in their latest defeat. Yes, the Toffees capitulated in extraordinary fashion in their 3-2 loss at home to Bournemouth, but they did score their first goals of the season, and they did put some decent patterns of play together.

Everton managed 18 shots in that clash and eight of them were on target. They may still be waiting for their first points on the board, but I don't think they're too far away. I'm not particularly confident that they can get a result at Villa Park, but if they can grab a few goals, it has me thinking backing them with a hypothetical one-goal advantage could be a smart play.

They took a two-goal lead against the Cherries in their last match, and Villa themselves have already conceded four times in their opening three matches. The Toffees do not have a favourable record against the Villans of late, having failed to beat them in their last 10 meetings in the Premier League.

In this exact fixture last season, Villa won 4-0, but I'm not sure any victory for them here will be as comfortable. As I said above, Everton did have some positive moments against Bournemouth, and after netting their first goals of the season, that in itself will give them a lift for the next phase of fixtures.

Unfortunately, I do think they will slip to another defeat here, but I think it can be a closer contest than some may expect. I see the Toffees getting on the scoresheet, so I think backing them with a +1 handicap is worth considering for this clash. 

Jhon Duran anytime goalscorer @ 6/4

It wasn't so long ago that fans were calling for Jhon Duran to be sold as he didn't appear to fit into Emery's plans, but strong form towards the end of last season has carried on into this one, and the Colombian gives his team a lot of energy from the bench.

Duran is already outscoring Villa's main number nine and last year's top scorer Ollie Watkins, with two goals to zero. Duran has seen his reputation among the supporters grow, and most will have been pleased to see that he didn't leave in the summer transfer window - although there were  reportedly no less than 40 clubs interested in his services.

He has started the season well and I think he can continue his goalscoring form against Everton on Saturday. He may be given a start but he has been showing that he is so important to Villa from the bench, especially when he is coming up against tired legs. The Toffees have already seen 10 goals go past them in the league, and I think Duran can add another one to the list at Villa Park.

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