Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion Prediction: Watkins to make goalscoring return to starting XI

Aston Villa and Brighton & Hove Albion both made bright starts to the 2024/25 Premier League season but the two clubs have faltered in the last couple of months and are both outside the top eight heading into their game at Villa Park on Monday (19:45).

Below you can find my Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Aston Villa's appeal to overturn Jhon Duran's red card against Newcastle United was rejected so the Colombian centre-forward will begin his three-game ban for violent conduct on Monday. Ollie Watkins will replace the 21-year-old in the starting XI.

Matty Cash also misses out through suspension after picking up his fifth yellow card of the campaign in Villa's 3-0 Boxing Day defeat at St James' Park. Ezri Konsa is likely to move across from centre-back to right-back to fill the void left by the Poland international, meaning either Tyrone Mings or Diego Carlos - likely the latter due to being right-footed - will partner Pau Torres in the centre of defence.

Unai Emery could welcome Jacob Ramsey back into the squad after a nine-game injury absence, though the 23-year-old will have to settle for a place on the bench at best.

Football Odds

Brighton & Hove Albion winger Solly March will hope to earn more minutes on Monday after making his return from 14 months out with injury in Friday's goalless draw with Brentford.

James Milner and Danny Welbeck remain in the Seagulls treatment room while it remains to be seen whether Evan Ferguson, Mats Wieffer, Ferdi Kadioglu and Jack Hinshelwood are fit enough to make their comebacks.

Aston Villa vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Aston Villa are 19/20 to triumph for the fourth consecutive game at Villa Park, giving Emery's side an implied win probability of 51.3%, while Brighton are 11/4, or a 26.7% chance, to snap out of a six-match winless run and pick up all three points in Birmingham.

The draw is priced at 11/4, both teams to score at 8/15, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/7.

First Goalscorer - Ollie Watkins (AVL) @ 4/1

Watkins hasn't started for Villa since being substituted at half-time of their 3-2 victory over RB Leipzig in the Uefa Champions League on December 10, instead having to play second fiddle to Duran who scored in a 2-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest and a 2-1 win over Manchester City before seeing red on Tyneside on Boxing Day.

The England international hasn't scored since converting a penalty against his former side Brentford in a 3-1 success for the Villans on December 4 while his last goal from open play came in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace on November 23.

However, he will lead the line from the start on Monday and should complete the full 90 minutes, and he will be buoyed by his goalscoring record against Brighton which stands at six strikes in seven games.

Watkins has scored more Premier League goals against Brighton than any other opponent and he hit a hat-trick in the corresponding fixture last season as Villa ran riot at Villa Park, thrashing the Seagulls 6-1.

The 28-year-old also scored at home against Brighton in the 2021/22 and 2022/23 campaigns, opening the scoring in Villa's 2-0 win in November 2020 meaning he has struck the first goal in two of the last three head-to-heads at Villa Park.

He's 6/5 to score anytime on Monday so I think it's worth visiting the first goalscorer market where we can find odds of 4/1 for the Villa star to strike first.

Emery's side have scored first in five of their last six games across all competitions and could catch Brighton cold on Monday with Watkins spearheading their attack again.

Player to Receive a Card - Boubacar Kamara (AVL) @ 21/10

After being cautioned in back-to-back games against Club Brugge and Liverpool in the first half of November, Villa midfielder Boubacar Kamara has gone eight matches without being scribbled into a referee's notebook - quite the achievement for a player who received seven yellow cards and one red in just 20 Premier League appearances last season.

He hasn't even made a foul in his last two away outings against Newcastle and Nottingham Forest but at Villa Park it's been a different matter, giving away four free-kicks last time out against Man City and five before that against Southampton, somehow avoiding a booking in either victory.

It feels as if the Frenchman is due a card and Brighton possess several players who could coax Kamara into making a few fouls, which could lead to a yellow - or even red - card.

Joao Pedro has been fouled two times per game on average this season and was upended four times on Friday by Brentford, who saw Yehor Yarmoliuk booked for a challenge on the Brazilian. Summer signing Georginio Rutter is another Seagulls star that can leave defenders feeling dizzy and the Frenchman has been fouled 1.5 times per game on average this term. He was fouled once against Brentford and once in Brighton's 1-1 draw with West Ham United on December 21, with Lucas Paqueta booked for an unfair challenge on him at the London Stadium.

Both Joao Pedro and Rutter like to drop in spaces between the opposition's defence and midfield, an area of the pitch in which Kamara is expected to sweep up, so don't be surprised to see the Villa man make a few robust tackles, and even fouls, on the Brighton duo; he could overcommit and earn himself a card in the process.

Offers

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