Aston Villa vs Chelsea Prediction: Palmer return won’t be enough for Blues

 | 26th April | 

4 mins read

Aston Villa vs Chelsea

Villa Park is the venue for the Premier League's Saturday night offering this weekend as Aston Villa host Chelsea, live on TNT Sports 1 (KO, 20:00). The Villans are looking for a win that will further cement their position in the top four, while Chelsea are battling for points just to qualify for any form of European competition.

I have delivered my Aston Villa vs Chelsea prediction below, alongside all the latest team news and match odds, as Unai Emery and Mauricio Pochettino go head-to-head for the fourth time this season.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea Betting Tips

  • Aston Villa to win and over 2.5 goals @ 9/5
  • Cole Palmer 2+ shots on target @ 6/4

The first meeting between these sides this season, all the way back in September at Stamford Bridge, saw Villa run out 1-0 winners courtesy of a second-half Ollie Watkins goal, which came 15 minutes after Malo Gusto was sent off for the home side.

Villa are now looking to complete their first league double over Chelsea since 1989/90, but the Blues did exact revenge on their opponents in the FA Cup fourth round earlier this year. The first game ended in a goalless draw in west London but goals from Conor Gallagher, Nicolas Jackson and Enzo Fernandez set Pochettino's side on the way to a 3-1 win in Birmingham, with Villa only hitting back late through Moussa Diaby.

The mood in both camps couldn't be any different now, though.

Villa have won their last two games in the league, stunning Arsenal 2-0 at the Emirates Stadium before coming from behind to beat AFC Bournemouth 3-1 at home last weekend.

A day prior to Emery's side triumphing over the Cherries, Chelsea were in FA Cup semi-final action, losing 1-0 to Manchester City. While there were positives to take from their performance at Wembley, there was nothing to shout about three days later as they were humbled 5-0 by Arsenal in the Premier League, a result which leaves them six points behind sixth-placed Manchester United.

Team News

Aston Villa still have a number of first-team players out injured, notably Jacob Ramsey, Alex Moreno, Tyrone Mings, Emiliano Buendia, Boubacar Kamara and Nicolo Zaniolo.

Douglas Luiz is free to return from suspension, however, and the Brazilian is expected to be the only change to the starting XI on Saturday, with either Leon Bailey or Moussa Diaby most likely to give way.

Chelsea sorely missed Cole Palmer on Tuesday, but he should be fine to feature this weekend after missing out against Arsenal due to illness.

Full-backs Ben Chilwell and Malo Gusto were also absent against the Gunners and the duo are likely to sit it out again alongside Enzo Fernandez, who will not play again this season after surgery on a hernia.

The likes of Christopher Nkunku, Reece James, Levi Colwill and Wesley Fofana are all still unavailable for selection, though the former two are back in training.

Match Odds

Aston Villa are 23/20 to beat Chelsea for a second time this season, giving them an implied win probability of 46.5%, while Chelsea are 9/5 - or a 35.7% chance - to win away for the first time since February 12.

The draw can be backed at 5/2, both teams to score at 2/5 and over 3.5 goals at 11/10.

Aston Villa to win and over 2.5 goals @ 9/5

Aston Villa have been a force to be reckoned with at Villa Park this season, winning 12 of their 17 Premier League matches there so far - only Liverpool (13) have claimed more home victories.

They've also scored 43 times on their own turf - no club has more at home - and 13 of their games there have ended with over 2.5 goals, nine of which they have won.

Chelsea, meanwhile, have been pretty abysmal on the road, winning just five of their 16 Premier League away games. Their tally of 19 points is fewer than eight other sides, including West Ham United (23) and Bournemouth (21).

12 of their matches away from Stamford Bridge have seen at least three goals scored, with the Blues losing six of them.

I sense more away day pain for Pochettino's side, who shipped five earlier in the week.

Aston Villa to beat Chelsea & over 2.5 goals at 9-5

Cole Palmer 2+ shots on target @ 6/4

One positive for Chelsea heading into Saturday should be the return of their talisman Palmer, who was sorely missed on Tuesday.

The 21-year-old is currently leading the Premier League scoring charts alongside Man City's Erling Haaland with 20 goals, and 10 of those have come in his last five league game.

Palmer had two shots on target in last weekend's FA Cup semi-final and his previous shots on target count in the league reads five, one, five, four, two, and two.

Villa allowed six shots on target against Bournemouth last time out, and if there are similar numbers on Saturday, you'd imagine Palmer would be leading the way for Chelsea.

Cole Palmer 2+ shots on target in Chelsea vs Villa at 6-4

Check out the rest of our Football Betting Tips here.

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