Aston Villa vs Bournemouth Prediction: Can Villa continue top four push?

Emi Martinez’s European heroics in Lille took Aston Villa into the semi-finals of the Europa Conference League on Thursday night, but now Unai Emery must turn his attention back to the Premier League. The European failings of every other English club means that only the top four will qualify for the Champions League next term, so Villa have an awful lot to play for. 

Currently three points above Tottenham Hotspur, albeit having played a game more, the race for that final Champions League spot is set to be a thriller. Villa will want to return to winning ways at home, as they host Bournemouth on Sunday afternoon, with kick-off at 15:00. Below you can find my Aston Villa vs Bournemouth prediction. 

Team News 

Emery may be forced into changes given the short turnaround here, after his side endured a rough 120 minutes, and penalties, in Lille. Matty Cash made it through the entire match on his return from injury, while Morgan Rogers, Leon Bailey, Diego Carlos and Clement Lenglet could come into the starting line-up. 

Bournemouth have had an entire week off to prepare for this trip, and Tyler Adams and Antoine Semenyo should return at Villa Park. Semenyo was left out of the game against Man Utd while the biggest disappointment came as Luis Sinisterra suffered a set-back from his return, and had to be substituted after starting in the 2-2 draw. He is likely to miss the rest of the campaign. 

Match Odds

Aston Villa are the slight favourites here at 5/6, which gives them a win probability of 54%. Bournemouth will fancy their chances at 11/4, while a draw is priced at 3/1. Goals are expected at Villa Park, with BTTS priced at 4/9 and over 2.5 goals available at the same price.

Aston Villa to win and BTTS @ 15/8

I think both teams will find the net here. BTTS has come in successfully in four of Villa’s last five outings, with the only exception being that superb clean sheet they kept at Arsenal. More so, they’ve now scored at least one goal in each of their last eight matches. 

They drew 1-1 in Lille in 90 minutes to continue that run, and BTTS has won in 67% of Villa’s league games this season. Bournemouth’s percentage currently sits at 63% but both teams have found the net in five of their last six outings. This should be a cracking encounter, while I’m also backing the home side to come out on top. 

They’ve got so much to play for, and although I have slight concerns about their energy levels, I think Emery will balance his squad well enough to win this game. On a high after Thursday, they can carry their good form back into the Premier League.

Ollie Watkins to score first @ 4/1

I love backing Ollie Watkins to score. The England man has been on red-hot form this season and now has scored 26 goals in all competitions this season. He looks like scoring in every single match he plays and has scored three goals in his last two Premier League appearances.

He simply has to play in these types of games, and against a Bournemouth defence that has conceded 57 goals this term, I think he will find the back of the net again. 4/1 on him to open  the scoring is well worth a punt in my opinion. 

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