Astana vs Chelsea Prediction: Back hosts on the handicap

Chelsea have made a faultless start to the league phase of the 2024/25 Uefa Conference League, winning all four games and scoring 18 times, conceding just four goals. Next up for the Blues is a trip to Kazakhstan to face FC Astana, who host Enzo Maresca's side at the Almaty Central Stadium on Thursday (15:30, TNT Sports 2).

Below is my Astana vs Chelsea prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

The 2024 Kazakhstan Premier League finished on November 10 and Astana have played just twice since the conclusion of their league campaign, beating Zhenis 2-0 after extra-time in the League Cup final on November 23 before drawing 1-1 with Guimaraes in the Conference League five days later, meaning they have been afforded two weeks rest ahead of Thursday's meeting with Chelsea.

As a result, their players - who are all available to head coach Grigori Babayan - should be well rested, but may also be lacking rhythm.

The Yellow-and-Blues have scored just twice in the league phase, with Kipras Kazukolovas netting the only goal of the game in their 1-0 win over TSC and Branimir Kalaica opening the scoring in a 1-1 draw with Guimaraes last time out in the competition.

Football Odds

Maresca has confirmed that 18-year-old right-back Josh Acheampong will make his full Chelsea debut on Thursday, while fellow youngsters Ato Ampah, Harrison McMahon, Kaiden Wilson, Richard Olise (brother of Michael), Harrison Murray-Campbell, Tyrique George, Kiano Dyer, Sam Rak-Sakyi and Shim Mheuka have also made the trip.

First-team stars such as Moises Caicedo, Nicolas Jackson and Cole Palmer - who isn't even eligible to play after being left out of the league phase squad list - have been left at home, leaving the likes of Tosin Adarabioyo, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Pedro Neto as the experienced heads in the camp.

Astana vs Chelsea Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Astana vs Chelsea page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Astana are 15/2 to triumph in Almaty, where temperatures could drop as low as -11C. Those odds give Babayan's side an implied win probability of 11.8%, while Chelsea are 3/10, or a 76.9% chance, to maintain their 100% record in the competition.

The draw is priced at 4/1, both teams to score at 8/11, and over 2.5 total goals at 4/9.

Nkunku, the league phase's joint-top scorer with five goals alongside Jagiellonia's Afimico Pululu, is 11/10 favourite in the anytime goalscorer market, with Geoffrey Chinedu (3/1) first up for the hosts.

Handicap -2 - Astana +2 @ 9/10

This selection sees Astana handed a two-goal headstart on their opponents, meaning they must win, draw or lose by no more than one goal to win the bet.

Chelsea would need to score twice without their hosts replying, three times if Astana score once, and so on. Certainly, I think the visitors can keep up their perfect start to their league phase campaign but I don't think it will be as simple as some of their previous games due to the weather conditions and the inexperienced squad taken by Maresca.

Jadon Sancho and Benoit Badiashile both started last month's 2-0 win at Heidenheim but neither are likely to feature on Thursday, nor Joao Felix, who was a second-half substitute in that game.

As such, and considering Astana kept a clean sheet against TSC in their first match on 'home' soil and followed that victory up with a low-scoring draw against Guimaraes, I think Chelsea will struggle to post a big scoreline this time around.

Of course, the Blues are a much better - and wealthier - club than those that have come before them, but Astana will be right up for this contest and it could be an eye-opener for the likes of Acheampong starting his first senior match.

Take the +2 handicap on Astana at just under EVS.

First Half Total Goals - Under 1.5 @ 4/6

There's little value to be had in Thursday's match so, once again, I'm looking to play things a little safer here, preferring to stack things up little by little.

Under 1.5 first-half total goals has landed in all four of Astana's league phase matches so far with one strike scored in the opening half of their 1-0 win over TSC, their 2-0 defeat at TNS and their 1-1 draw with Guimaraes, while it was goalless at half-time of their 1-0 defeat at Pafos.

Meanwhile, despite Chelsea's dominance in their opening four games, the Blues saw just one goal scored before the interval in their 4-2 victory over Gent and their 4-1 win at Panathinaikos, while the Blues and Heidenheim drew the first half 0-0 last time out before Maresca's men ran away with it 2-0 in the second period.

I expect Astana to err on the side of caution on Thursday, particularly at the beginning, looking to frustrate their visitors, but Chelsea aren't in a rush to get things wrapped up considering their already healthy position in the table, so the teams could cancel each other out in the opening stages in Almaty.

I'm leaving the door slightly ajar by backing under 1.5 first-half total goals, but you can get under 0.5 for 3/1, too.

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