Arsenal vs PSV Prediction: 10/1 shot for change in fortunes

It’s incredibly rare to get a second leg of a Champions League tie like this one. Arsenal demolished PSV 7-1 away from home in the first leg which makes this fixture almost a complete dead rubber. If Arsenal don’t go through from here it would be the most remarkable turnaround we have ever seen in Europe, as the teams meet at the Emirates (20:00, TNT Sports 2). 

Below you can find my Arsenal vs PSV predictions featuring team news and betting tips.

Team News

With such a sizeable advantage, it will be interesting to see what Mikel Arteta does with his Arsenal team. It seems unlikely that he will rotate his entire XI, with Arsenal looking to make it to the quarter-finals of this competition for the first time since 2010. 

The Gunners face Chelsea on Sunday and could come under pressure for their top four place if they continue to drop points. From an injury perspective, Gabriel Martinelli could do with some more minutes having returned to action against Manchester United, but Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Gabriel Jesus are all out of action. 

Myles Lewis-Skelly, Kieran Tierney, Raheem Sterling, Ben White, Jakub Kiwior, Oleksandr Zinchenko and Jorginho could all come into the starting XI given their relative lack of action of late, with Sterling likely to start up front in place of Michael Merino.

PSV got an important win at the weekend to end a dreadful run of form, and they were also boosted by the returns of Mauro Junior and Sergino Dest. The USA international hadn’t played in 11 months, and he will provide PSV with a massive boost heading to the Emirates. 

Fellow Americans Riccardo Pepi and Malik Tillman are out for the long-term, while January arrival Esmir Bajraktarevic has a shoulder issue. Former Gunner Lucas Perez will not be able to feature, as he is not registered for the Champions League.

Arsenal vs PSV Odds

Arsenal are priced at 4/9 to win this game in 90 minutes, giving them an implied win probability of 69%, while a draw is available at 4/1. PSV can be backed at 6/1 to win this game, while they are 50/1 to qualify for the quarter-finals. 

Over 2.5 goals is 8/11 while BTTS is 1/1, both of which came IN during the first leg. If you are looking for a goalscorer, Leandro Trossard is the favourite to score first at 5/1. 

Double Chance: Draw or PSV @ 7/4

It may seem a little wild to suggest that PSV can avoid defeat or even win this match in 90 minutes given the massive disparity we saw between the two teams last week, but that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Arsenal simply aren’t going to play with the same intensity they did in the first leg and I’m expecting Arteta to ring the changes and give the likes of Tierney, Sterling and White some minutes. 

PSV’s league form has been poor of late and they’ve blown a five-point lead at the top to now trail Ajax by eight. However, they looked better at the weekend as they beat Heerenveen 2-0, and I think the return of Dest could improve them. 

I also like the attitude manager Peter Bosz has towards this game. In his pre-match press conference he said: "Of course, it would be a huge miracle. But miracles happen sometimes, right?. I think everyone who was on the field last week doesn't want to go through what happened there again. We want to show that we are better than that.”

As a result, I think the Double Chance market offers great value. 

Football Odds

PSV to win to nil @ 10/1

A long shot, but hear me out. I don’t think Arsenal are going to be that bothered about the result tonight, and as a result, they may fall to a small defeat. It doesn’t actually matter whether they lose this game 1-0, 2-0 or even 3-0, and I think the difference in motivations and squads will be telling between this week and last. 

I also am extremely concerned about Arsenal’s attacking fluidity right now. They are looking incredibly blunt with Merino up top and even if Sterling starts here, it's clear that Arteta doesn’t particularly fancy him right now. They are in desperate need of a number nine, and that’s been the missing piece all season, so I can see them failing to notch in this one given we expect changes. Meanwhile, PSV will put in a better showing and could steal a win at the Emirates. 

Offers

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Acca Flex: Place a pre-match 5+ leg Football accumulator and get a CASH bonus up to 100% if all of your selections win or your money back as CASH if one leg lets you down

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