Arsenal vs Newcastle United Bet Builder Tips: Card-merchant Joelinton carries Carabao Cup shot

The Carabao Cup returns this week and on Tuesday evening (20:00, ITV1/Sky Sports Main Event) it's the first leg of the first semi-final between Arsenal and Newcastle United at the Emirates Stadium. The teams will then reconvene on Tyneside at St James' Park on February 5 in a battle to face either Liverpool or Tottenham Hotspur in the final at Wembley on March 16.

Below are my Arsenal vs Newcastle Bet Builder Tips ahead of this midweek cup clash in north London.

Football Odds

Arsenal vs Newcastle United Odds

Total Goals - Under 2.5

First-leg ties can often be cagey contests as both teams seek to make sure they are still in with a strong chance of progression to the final in the return fixture, and that's certainly been the case at this stage of the competition in the last three years.

Four of the last six semi-final first legs in the Carabao Cup have finished with two or fewer goals including Newcastle's last appearance in 2023 when they beat Southampton 1-0 at St Mary's Stadium before winning 2-1 at St James'.

Mikel Arteta and Eddie Howe have faced each other seven times in this fixture and six of those games have gone under 2.5 goals including November's Premier League meeting on Tyneside when the Magpies edged proceedings 1-0 via a 12th-minute strike from Alexander Isak.

Both teams boast impressive defensive records this season, too, with Arsenal conceding the fewest goals (18) in the Premier League and only Liverpool and Nottingham Forest (both 19) standing between the Gunners and Newcastle (22).

All of the above, alongside the confirmed absences of Bukayo Saka and Callum Wilson, and the potential nonappearances of Kai Havertz and Ethan Nwaneri, make the under 2.5 goals on Tuesday a strong shout.

Joelinton (NEW) Carded

Next up in this Bet Builder is a card for Newcastle bruiser Joelinton, whose booking in Saturday's 2-1 victory at Tottenham Hotspur brought up his seventh yellow card of the 2024/25 Premier League campaign - one more than last season despite playing one fewer game. His last 30-plus match season, in 2022/23, saw him cautioned 12 times in the top flight.

The 28-year-old has been booked in three of his last five appearances and is averaging 2.1 fouls per game in this season's Premier League and one foul per game in the Carabao Cup.

Joelinton made four fouls against Arsenal earlier in the campaign but managed to avoid any disciplinary sanctions, as he did in Newcastle's victory over the Gunners at St James' in 2023/24 when he gave away two free-kicks.

However, with fellow midfielder Bruno Guimaraes and defender Fabian Schar both suspended, the Brazilian's defensive responsibilities have increased, and I expect him to be even more forceful than usual in the middle of the park as he looks to get to grips with tricky opposition players such as Martin Odegaard.

Jurrien Timber (ARS) 2+ Fouls

Arsenal defender Jurrien Timber served a one-game suspension on the weekend after picking up a fifth Premier League booking of the season in his side's 3-1 win at Brentford on New Year's Day. I expect the Dutchman to return to his right-back role on Tuesday with Takehiro Tomiyasu and Ben White still injured, allowing Thomas Partey to move back into midfield.

Timber should start and finish the game and that, alongside his disciplinary record, potential opponents, and last meeting with Newcastle, marks him out as a strong candidate to make a couple of fouls in midweek.

One of Timber's five yellows this season came in November at St James' where he committed three fouls, receiving a booking for the final one on Tonali. His first two fouls were on Guimaraes and Anthony Gordon, respectively, and it was the latter he was in direct competition as he was playing left-back on that day, with Gordon positioned on the right-hand side of Newcastle's attack.

Gordon has been playing in a more familiar left-wing position recently while Timber should be nailed on to start at right back, so we should see the two players come into contact plenty of times again on Tuesday. The England international is the third-most fouled player in the Premier League this season, being taken down 42 times (2.2 per game on average), and he was fouled twice in the last round of the Carabao Cup against Brentford.

Timber is averaging one foul per game in the Premier League but made three in his only previous game against the Magpies and will be kept busy by Gordon & Co. at the Emirates, so two fouls by the 23-year-old is a strong possibility.

Anthony Gordon (NEW) 1+ Shots

Speaking of Gordon, the Everton Academy graduate scored the winner in Newcastle's 1-0 home win over Arsenal in the Premier League last season and registered a shot on target on his last visit to the Emirates in February 2024. The 23-year-old is averaging 2.1 shots per Premier League game this term and has had an attempt in 15 of his 19 top-flight appearances including his last seven.

He's also averaging one shot per game in the Carabao Cup despite only starting two of Newcastle's four competition matches, and he had two last time out against Brentford.

Offers

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