Armenia vs Georgia Prediction: Mikautadze to step up again for the Crusaders

John van' t Schip takes charge of his first match as Armenia national football team head coach on Thursday (17:45) as Havakakan host Georgia in the opening leg of their Uefa Nations League play-off tie. The first leg takes place at the Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium in Yerevan before the two teams face off in Sunday's reverse fixture in Tbilisi.

Below are my Armenia vs Georgia predictions alongside all the latest team news and match odds as the sides tussle it out for a place in the Uefa Nations League Division B.

Team News

Van' t Schip's first squad includes national team captain Varazdat Haroyan (Pyunik) and Kamo Hovhannisyan (Ararat-Armenia) who, with 89 and 86 caps respectively, are the two most experienced players available to the Dutch-Canadian boss whose managerial career has taken him to the Netherlands, Australia, Mexico and Greece.

With nine strikes in 58 caps, Tigran Barseghyan (Slovan Bratislava) is the highest-scoring player named by Van' t Schip, and the 31-year-old is one of 10 plying their trade outside of their homeland.

Eduard Spertsyan (Krasnodar), who opened the scoring in Armenia's 2-1 win over Latvia in November, is absent from the squad due to injury while 25-cap international Lucas Zelarayan (Belgrano), arguably the most recognisable name in the national team since the retirement of Henrikh Mkhitaryan two years ago, hasn't been called up.

Football Odds

There is one new face in Willy Sagnol's Georgia squad with 20-year-old Luka Latsabidze (Shakhtar Donetsk, on loan at Chornomorets) rewarded for his form in the Ukrainian Premier League.

Household names Giorgi Mamardashvili (Valencia), Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (Paris Saint-Germain) and Georges Mikautadze (Olympique Lyonnais) are all in as well as national team captain and defensive stalwart Guram Kashia (Slovan Bratislava).

Kvaratskhelia, though, is suspended for the first leg after picking up his second yellow card of the Nations League campaign in the Crusaders' last game, a 2-1 defeat to the Czech Republic in Olomouc last November.

Budu Zivzivadze (Heidenheim) could replace the PSG star in Sagnol's starting XI after netting in back-to-back Bundesliga matches against Hoffenheim and Holstein Kiel.

Armenia vs Georgia Odds

Armenia only beat Latvia (twice) in Group C2 but seven points was enough to clinch second place ahead of the Faroe Islands. They've won just three of their last 16 games across all competitions dating back to June 2023, though, and are 13/5 underdogs on Thursday despite holding home advantage. Those odds imply a win probability of 27.8% while Georgia, who beat Portugal en route to the last 16 of Euro 2024 last summer, are 1/1 (50%) to take a lead back to Tbilisi.

The draw is priced at 9/4, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 1/1.

Mikautadze heads the anytime (7/4) and first (9/2) goalscorer markets with Barseghyan, who hasn't played for his country since October 2023, considered Armenia's most likely anytime goalscorer at 13/5.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 8/11

At least three goals have been scored in the last three meetings between these two nations, but the first of those, a 2-1 win for Georgia, was in February 2011. The most recent two, a 2-2 draw and a 2-1 victory for Armenia, were in October and November 2020.

Therefore, I'm paying no heed to those results and instead looking to the teams' respective Nations League campaigns that have brought them to this two-legged play-off tie.

Armenia began Group C2 with a 4-1 thrashing of Latvia and ended their campaign with a 2-1 win over the same opposition, but three of their four games between those two victories saw two or fewer goals scored and they failed to strike in defeats to North Macedonia (twice) and the Faroe Islands.

Georgia, meanwhile, also started things off with a 4-1 battering of the Czech Republic but their next four games all went under 2.5 goals, the first three of which all ended in a 1-0 scoreline. After hitting the Czechs for four in Tbilisi, the goals really dried up for the Crusaders, who managed just four in their next five matches, blanking in defeats to Ukraine and Albania.

Of course, Sagnol's side may play with a bit more belief against a team in the division below them; Armenia certainly don't have the experience or quality of a Ukraine or a Czech Republic.

However, Georgia will have to play the first leg without their talisman Kvaratskhelia who has accumulated too many yellow cards in the competition, and that will blunt their attack somewhat.

Armenia, meanwhile, will hope for that 'new manager bounce' that so often comes with the arrival of a new head coach. Plus, Yerevan hasn't seen many goals over the last 18 months with five of their seven matches played in the capital in that period seeing two or fewer strikes. Croatia could only manage a 1-0 win there in September 2023 and Wales only scraped a 1-1 draw two months later.

With a second leg to come in Georgia on Sunday, I don't see the visitors going gung-ho on Thursday, so we could see a tight encounter with the hosts defending staunchly and the Crusaders happy to bide their time. Under 2.5 total goals looks the best play here at 8/11.

First Goalscorer - Georges Mikautadze (GEO) @ 9/2

I'm not anticipating many goals at the Vazgen Sargsyan Republican Stadium on Thursday, but if there are to be one or two, I'd back them to be in the direction of Georgia, who will look to Mikautadze as their main man in attack with Kvaratskhelia suspended.

Mikautadze starred for his country last summer, scoring three goals at Euro 2024, and he struck the same number in six Nations League appearances between September and November; in fact, he has netted in his last two outings for the Crusaders, scoring their only goals in a 1-1 draw with Ukraine and a 2-1 defeat to the Czech Republic in November.

The 24-year-old endured a slow start to life at Olympique Lyonnais after joining from Metz in a big-money move last summer but has come into his own over the last couple of months and arrives into Thursday's contest having scored in back-to-back games for his club side, bagging a brace in a 4-0 win over FCSB and firing one from the bench in Sunday's 4-2 victory over Le Havre.

The former Ajax and Metz striker is 7/4 to score anytime but it's the 9/2 for him to open the scoring which takes my fancy here.

My first tip suggests a maximum of two goals will be scored in this first leg and thus backing a first goalscorer makes a lot of sense.

Georgia are the favourites to win in Yerevan and with Armenia conceding first in four of their six Group C2 games in the autumn, the visitors are the smart pick to open the scoring on Thursday.

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