Argentina vs Venezuela Prediction: Messi’s home farewell?

Argentina are now just under a year away from having to defend the World Cup they won in Qatar in December 2022. That was the crowning moment of Lionel Messi’s sparkling career, and many thought he would hang up his boots with that trophy in the bag. 

But less than 12 months away from kick-off in the United States of America, it looks like he will have one last dance on the big stage. Argentina have already qualified, but they will round off their qualification campaign with games against Venezuela (00:30 BST, Friday) and Ecuador (00:00 BST, Wednesday) this international break. Below you can find my Argentina vs Venezuela predictions, as we search for a winner. 

Team News

Messi has made it into this squad but it remains to be seen how much of a part the 38-year-old will play, with qualification already secured. Joining him as the options in the attacking third are Lautaro Martinez, Julian Alvarez and Angel Correa - who is back in the squad having joined Tigres in Mexico this summer. 

Manchester United’s Lisandro Martinez misses out, while goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez is in the squad despite his strange summer at Aston Villa. Nicolas Otamendi, Nicolas Tagliafico and Marcos Acuna all offer massive experience in defence, but all eyes could be on the two teenagers in midfield - Real Madrid’s Franco Mastantuono and Manchester City’s Claudio Echeverri.

Football Odds

Venezuela will be led out by 37-year-old Tomas Rincon of Santos, as he closes in on 150 international caps. Salomon Rondon has 47 goals in 118 international matches and will lead the line as usual, while Wuilker Farinez is likely to start in goal.

Cristian Casseres is a bright midfielder from Toulouse while Telasco Segovia will come face-to-face with his club teammate Messi, as he currently plys his trade for Inter Miami. 

Argentina vs Venezuela Odds

Argentina are priced as the 1/5 favourites to win this game, giving them an implied win probability of 83% for this home game. Venezuela are 10/1 to take the win while a draw is 9/2.

Over 2.5 goals is 8/15, BTTS is 11/10 and Messi is the favourite to score first at 9/4. 

Argentina to win to nil @ 5/6

Argentina are one of the best teams in the world right now and even though there is nothing on the line for them here, I’d expect them to win professionally. They’ve won 11 of their 16 qualifiers so far to lead the table by 10 points, with top spot already secured. Lionel Scaloni has overseen a wonderful transformation of their success, but their home form has been strong since before he arrived. 

In fact, their last home defeat came in November 2023, when Argentina fell 2‑0 to Uruguay at La Bombonera in Buenos Aires, but even more amazingly, it is only the second time Argentina have lost at home with Messi in the squad. They should be able to overcome a Venezuela outfit that sits seventh with 18 points from 16 games and have lost their last six away games.

Lionel Messi to score first @ 9/4 

It’s all about Messi isn’t it? He’s only played twice for Argentina in 2025 and has failed to score, so you’d expect him to be given a start in what could even be his final appearance in Buenos Aires. He’s also on the brink of more history, as if he plays in both of these qualifiers, he will surpass the appearances record in South American World Cup qualifying matches - currently held by Ecuador’s Ivan Hurtado’s at 72.

One hundred and twelve goals in 193 international appearances in total is simply remarkable, and I’m going to back him to find the net first in what should be a momentous occasion in front of the fans that adore him. 

Offers

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