Argentina vs Peru Prediction: Easy does it for La Albiceleste

Despite sitting top of the South American 2026 Fifa World Cup qualifying section, three points clear of second-placed Uruguay, things are far from perfect for Argentina, who have won just one of their last four games. Luckily for La Albiceleste, their next opponents, Peru, are on an identical run of form having lost two and drawn one of their most recent four matches; in fact, La Bicolor have only won one of their 11 qualifiers and are ninth in the 10-team group.

Below is my Argentina vs Peru prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this round-12 fixture at the Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires on Wednesday (00:00, Premier Sports 1).

Team News

A foot injury saw Tottenham Hotspur centre-back Cristian Romero withdrawn at half-time of Argentina's 2-1 defeat to Paraguay in Asuncion last Thursday. Leonardo Balerdi replaced the 26-year-old and with Manchester United's Lisandro Martinez already ruled out, the Olympique Marseille defender looks set to partner Benfica's Nicolas Otamendi at the heart of the backline again.

Gonzalo Montiel (Sevilla), Leandro Paredes (AS Roma), Alejandro Garnacho (Man United) and Taty Castellanos (Lazio) are all options if head coach Lionel Scaloni opts to make more changes to his starting XI.

Football Odds

Peru's all-time top scorer, Paolo Guerrero (Alianza Lima), earned a recall to the national team earlier this month and was handed a start in Saturday's goalless draw with Chile at the Estadio Nacional in Lima. Back-to-back starts for the 40-year-old might be pushing it, however, so La Bicolor head coach Jorge Fossati could swap the veteran for 34-year-old Cagliari centre-forward Gianluca Lapadula, who came on for Guerrero in the 63rd minute on the weekend.

Edison Flores (Universitario, on loan from Atlas) is another potential starter in the Argentine capital.

Argentina vs Peru Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Argentina vs Peru page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Argentina are 1/7 to return to winning ways on Wednesday, giving the hosts an implied probability of 87.5%, while Peru are 16/1, or a 5.9% chance, to spring a surprise and triumph on their travels for the first time this campaign.

The draw is priced at 5/1, both teams to score at 9/4, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/6.

Unsurprisingly, Inter Miami's Lionel Messi (4/5) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Inter Milan's Lautaro Martinez (21/10) and Castellanos (6/5), while Guerrero (15/2) is shortest priced for Peru.

Bet Builder - Both Teams to Score - No, Half-time/Full-Time - Argentina/Argentina, Lionel Messi Anytime Goalscorer, Peru Under 1.5 First Half Corners @ 3/1

After some disappointing results in the last couple of months, Argentina will be desperate to end the year on a high and ensure that they keep a three-point gap to their nearest challengers heading into the final six rounds of fixtures in 2025.

Peru, meanwhile, need to start winning games soon if they are to give themselves any chance of finishing seventh, which would see them advance to a play-off. Currently, La Bicolor are five points off that target, so there's a lot for them to do.

Their prospects of scoring, let alone winning, on Wednesday, are unlikely, however.

Argentina have won four of their five home qualifiers, including their last two against Bolivia (6-0) and Chile (3-0). La Albiceleste also beat Ecuador and Paraguay (both 1-0), with their only dropped points in Buenos Aires coming against Uruguay (0-2).

Four clean sheets in five home games is a formidable defensive record, and considering Peru are yet to score on their travels in this campaign, a fifth shutout in six appears likely on Wednesday.

Peru ground out a goalless draw with Paraguay in Cuidad del Este in their first away outing but have since lost in Chile, Bolivia (both 2-0), Ecuador (1-0) and Brazil (4-0) without scoring. In two of those defeats, against Bolivia and Brazil, La Bicolor were losing at half-time, while they were also two goals down at the interval in their 2-0 loss to Argentina in Lima in October 2023.

Argentina have been leading at half-time in 45.5 per cent (five) of their 11 qualifiers, including two of their last three against Bolivia and Venezuela, and have been in front at the midway stage of their last two home meetings with Peru.

Messi was the man in the reverse fixture last year, scoring twice inside the first 42 minutes, and after blanking in Asuncion last week, I'm backing him to return to form in Buenos Aires.

To round off this four-legged Bet Builder, which comes to 3/1, I'm selecting under 1.5 Peru first-half corners, something that has landed in six qualifiers so far, including against Argentina in Lima last year, when neither team won a single corner before the interval.

Peru have taken one first-half corner or fewer in four of their five away games and haven't earned one before half-time in their last three contests with Argentina, last winning one before the referee's first whistle in November 2020.

Argentina, meanwhile, have conceded one corner or fewer in four of their five home qualifiers.

Correct Score - Argentina 2-0 @ 7/2

This has been a winning selection in three of the last four head-to-heads, including both in the last 14 months.

Messi was the hero in Lima as his first-half brace proved to be enough for the reigning World Cup champions, and it was the turn of Martinez to do the double in their 2024 Copa America group stage fixture in Miami Gardens, Florida on June 30. Martinez was also on the scoresheet in a 2-0 victory at the Estadio Nacional in Lima in November 2020, then-Stuttgart striker Nicolas Gonzalez (now at Juventus) notching the other.

This scoreline also landed three times for Argentina at this year's Copa America - once against Peru and twice against Canada - while Peru have lost 2-0 on three occasions in 2026 World Cup qualifying - all consecutively against Chile (A), Argentina (H) and Bolivia (A).

There's no great need for Argentina to go all out for more if they go a couple of goals up while Peru might just be happy to save themselves from the sort of hammering La Albiceleste inflicted upon Bolivia in their last Buenos Aires outing, so 2-0 looks appealing at 7/2 here.

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