Argentina vs Chile Prediction: La Roja’s suffering to continue in Buenos Aires

Reigning World Cup champions Argentina continued their pursuit of greatness in the summer by winning Copa America for the second time in three years, captained by the magician that is Lionel Messi. La Albiceleste resume their 2026 World Cup qualification campaign on Friday (01:00 BST, Premier Sports 1) by taking on Chile at the Estadio Monumental in Buenos Aires.

Read on for my Argentina vs Chile prediction and all the latest team news ahead of this clash in the capital.

Team News

The major Argentinan team news is that Messi is injured and has not been named in the squad for the September World Cup qualifiers against Chile and Colombia. Head coach Lionel Scaloni will also be without recently retired duo Angel Di Maria and Franco Armani, who called time on their international careers following the conclusion of the 2024 Copa America.

Meanwhile, defenders Nicolas Tagliafico and Leonardo Baledri were forced to pull out of the squad due to injury.

Scaloni has called up four uncapped players: Ezequiel Fernandez, Valentin Castellanos, Guiliano Simeone, and Matias Soule.

Emiliano Martinez, Cristian Romero, Alexis Mac Allister, Enzo Fernandez and Lautaro Martinez are among the headline names in the squad.

Football Odds

Legendary Chilean goalkeeper Claudio Bravo announced his retirement from the national team after La Roja's group-stage exit at Copa America, with 36-year-old Racing Club shot-stopper Gabriel Arias primed to replace the former Manchester City man between the sticks.

Experienced midfield duo Arturo Vidal and Charles Aranguiz have been left out of the squad again by Argentine head coach Ricardo Gareca, who has also overlooked Gary Medel, while Alexis Sanchez is injured.

There are plenty of caps to be found in the likes of Mauricio Isla, Erick Pulgar and Eduardo Vargas, however, while Ben Brereton Diaz keeps his spot after completing a summer move to Premier League side Southampton.

Argentina vs Chile Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Argentina vs Chile page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Unsurprisingly, Argentina are huge favourites ahead of this World Cup qualifier, with odds of 3/10 giving Scaloni's side an implied win probability of 76.9%, while Chile are 8/1, or an 11.1% chance, to win beat La Albicelesete for the first time since October 2008.

The draw can be backed at 7/2, both teams to score at 11/8, and over 2.5 total goals at 10/11.

Lautaro Martinez is favourite to score anytime at 5/4, while Vargas is considered Chile's most likely scorer at 9/2.

To Win to Nil - Argentina @ 9/10

It's been some ride for Argentina supporters over the last couple of years. After winning the Qatar World Cup in December 2022, La Albiceleste embarked on an eight-game win streak that only came to an end in Buenos Aires last November, when they lost 2-0 to Marcelo Bielsa's Uruguay. That defeat remains their only dropped points of the 2026 World Cup qualification campaign, as they have won their other five matches - against Ecuador (3-0), Bolivia (0-3), Paraguay (1-0), Peru (0-2) and Brazil (0-1) - without conceding a goal.

Scaloni's side then won all four of their international friendlies this year before heading to the USA for the 2024 Copa America, where they kept clean sheets in all three group game victories over Canada (2-0), Chile (1-0) and Peru (2-0). Ecuador (1-1, 4-2 on pens) and Canada (2-0) were dealt with in the quarter-finals and semi-finals respectively before Lautaro Martinez struck an extra-time winner against Colombia in the final to crown Argentina as back-to-back champions of South America.

Chile didn't enjoy the tournament quite as much, failing to qualify for the knockouts after drawing 0-0 with Peru and Canada either side of their 1-0 loss to Argentina to finish third in Group A.

It's been a poor start to their 2026 World Cup qualification campaign, too, as they currently sit eighth out of 10. La Roja opened up with a 3-1 defeat away to Uruguay before getting four points on the board against Colombia (0-0) and Peru (2-0), but they've taken just one point in their last three, losing 3-0 at Venezuela and 1-0 at Ecuador either side of a goalless draw at home to Paraguay.

There's a long way to go but Chile's golden era looks to be well and truly over, with the stars of their 2015 and 2016 Copa America final wins against Argentina all coming to the end of their careers, and the youngsters aren't quite making the grade at present.

Goals are a big problem in this Chilean side, as evidenced in their failure to find the net even once in the USA, and they have blanked in their last three World Cup qualifiers.

Even without Messi, Argentina should have no problem beating Chile on Friday, and considering their defensive resilience - La Albiceleste shut out the opposition in four of their six Copa America contests - combined with La Roja's attacking woes, a win to nil looks the best play in Buenos Aires.

First Scorer - Lautaro Martinez @ 7/2

Martinez has enjoyed a glorious 12 months or so with club and country. The 27-year-old fired 24 goals in Serie A to help Inter Milan lift the title, claiming the Capocannoniere award for top scorer in the process, and he followed that up with the Golden Boot at the 2024 Copa America, netting his fifth and final goal of the tournament in extra-time of the final against Colombia to secure Argentina the trophy.

The Inter captain hasn't got off to the fastest of starts this term, blanking in his first two matches either side of an injury that forced him to miss a 2-0 victory over Lecce.

However, with Messi out injured and Alvarez not firing on all cylinders yet for Atletico Madrid, I expect Martinez to start on Friday, and if he does, he's the most obvious candidate to strike first in Buenos Aires.

Martinez scored the winner from the bench when these sides last met in June and he was also on target in their previous meeting, a 2-1 win for Argentina in January 2022, where he also struck the deciding goal.

Offers

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