Arandina vs Real Madrid Prediction: Goals to flow in big away win

We take a break from La Liga action to take in the Copa Del Rey this weekend and we haven't given our Spanish football expert time-off.

Mark Sochon is here with his preview and betting tips ahead of Real Madrid's trip to take to the El Montecillo to take on Arandina...

Real Madrid have a Copa del Rey date away to tiny Arandina on Saturday as Carlo Ancelotti’s side begin the defence of the trophy they won last season.

That triumph was anything but the norm for Real Madrid in this competition though. They’d won it just twice in the previous 29 years and they’ve been on the wrong end of a fair few shocks over that period, from a humiliating 4-0 defeat against neighbours Alcorcon in 2009 to an Extra Time exit against ten-man Alcoyano in 2021.

Those were both third tier sides at the time and embarrassing enough outcomes for the most decorated club in European football. However, it’s safe to say that defeat this weekend would top even those when it comes to the greatest upsets in the history of this competition.

Arandina play in the Segunda Federacion which is the Spanish fourth tier, consisting of five regionalised 18-team leagues. They currently sit rock bottom of one of those leagues with just two victories all season, as many as they’ve managed in the Copa del Rey.

They caused a huge upset in the last round, defeating top flight Cadiz 2-1 in slightly comical fashion at their 6,000 capacity Estadio El Montecillo. Even before a ball was kicked, there were huge puddles on the pitch from torrential rain and things didn’t get much better as the magic of the cup descended into an outright farce at times with players unable to keep their footing and through-balls stopping abruptly in pools of surface water.

The good news for Real Madrid is that it should be a good deal drier this weekend. However, sub-zero temperatures are predicted in one of the coldest regions of Spain for a game that will kick off at 9:30 p.m. local time (8:30 in the UK).

That shouldn’t really be a problem for a Real Madrid side that has lost just one of their 25 competitive games so far this season. They’ll just want to get through this game without any more injuries and without any drama, before they jet off to Saudi Arabia for next week’s Spanish Supercopa.

Los Blancos have already made a winning start to 2024, beating Mallorca 1-0 in La Liga on Wednesday. Antonio Rudiger’s late header sealed the win and while it wasn’t a vintage display, there were positives for Ancelotti, particularly with Vinicius Junior playing for an hour on his sooner than expected return from injury.

They also got through the game without conceding despite the absence of three central defenders. Aurelien Tchouameni filled in alongside Rudiger who has been perhaps Real Madrid’s best player this season with the obvious exception of Jude Bellingham.

Team News:

Real Madrid have only just returned from nearly a fortnight off, so they don’t have anyone who’s desperately in need of a rest. Ancelotti is still expected to rotate though, especially in positions where he has more depth with fringe players such as Dani Ceballos and Lucas Vazquez likely to play.

Aside from long-term absentees Thibaut Courtois, David Alaba and Eder Militao, they’re doing better on the fitness front now with 18 year old summer signing Arda Guler on the bench against Mallorca after injury and potentially in line for his long-awaited Real Madrid debut here.

Ferland Mendy remains a fitness doubt while youngsters Nico Paz and Alvaro Carrillo could also feature. Antonio Rudiger, who has barely had a rest given the other central defensive absentees, could drop to the bench and be used only if needed in a game that will be settled on the night with no replays or 2nd Legs in the Copa del Rey 3rd Round.

For Arandina, this is simply the biggest game any of their players have ever been involved in, or probably ever will be. They’ve gone three weeks without a fixture with the Segunda Federacion currently on its winter break and the hosts will clearly name their strongest available eleven as they bid to cause one of the great cup upsets.

Match Odds:

Real Madrid are priced at 1/14 to claim the win, while you can back the Draw at 15/2 with a shock Arandina win available at 16/1.

The handicap markets are more interesting with Arandina +3 Handicap on offer at 9/10 while you can back Real Madrid -3 at 9/5 if you fancy the visitors to run riot.

Real Madrid are 8/13 to keep a clean sheet while you can back Both Teams To Score at 6/5 with the home fans hoping to have at least a goal to celebrate on the biggest night in their club’s relatively short history.

As for the goalscorer markets, Joselu is the favourite to score anytime at 3/5 with the striker expected to rotate in.

Bet 1 - Real Madrid & Over 3.5 Goals @ 5/6

Arandina have the third worst defensive record in their league and they don’t really have the feel of a side that will be able to simply park the bus and frustrate their illustrious opponents for long periods in the game.

The conditions unquestionably played a big role in their win in the last round against top flight opponents. It won’t be as bad on Saturday and while the pitch is very unlikely to compare to the Bernabeu playing service, Real Madrid should still be able to show their quality and score a few goals.

Backing Real Madrid and Over 3.5 Goals at 5/6 looks good here, particularly with Los Blancos potentially going with an untried central defensive pairing that could offer a bit of hope to the home forwards.

Bet 2 - Brahim Diaz to Score Anytime @ 23/20

Brahim Diaz is another player likely to rotate into the team. He missed a sitter against Mallorca but has looked sharp in recent weeks with goals in 3 of his last 9 appearances including a wonderful solo strike. With a fit again Vinicius Junior adding to the competition in attack, he’ll be hungry to put in a good performance here as he targets more regular minutes.

At 23/20, Brahim Diaz looks good value to score anytime against fourth tier opponents and he stands a decent chance of completing the 90 minutes for the first time this season.

You can check out Mark's La Liga Betting Tips along with those from the rest of the Betfred Insights Spanish Football writers on our La Liga home page...