We come to a pivotal match in Group E of Euro 2024 qualifying on Sunday night as Albania host Poland at 7.45pm. It is second vs third and both teams still have a realistic shot at topping the group.

Teams news

Albania drew 1-1 with Czech Republic on Thursday night, a result that has allowed Poland to close the gap to the top two. Given the solid defensive display we can expect the rearguard unit to remain unchanged, however manager Sylvinho may fancy changing up his front four. All were withdrawn with Nedim Bajrami making the only attacking contribution of the match. 

Meanwhile, Robert Lewandowski has been in good form for Barcelona and continued that with a brace against the Faroe Islands on Thursday night. Arkadiusz Milik started alongside him and we can expect that front two to continue here, with potentially an unchanged eleven, although Kamil Grosicki will be pushing for a start from the right wing. 

Poland to win

Albania have done well to keep themselves in contention during the course of this qualifying group, but they were desperately poor against Czech Republic. They managed just one shot over the entire game, and that went in to earn them an important point. 

They desperately need to avoid defeat here to keep themselves above Poland, but in the reverse fixture they went down 1-0 in a tight encounter. Now Poland themselves haven’t been in good form, losing to both Czech Republic and Moldova earlier in the year, but they do have more individual quality to edge this encounter. Lewandowski has to step up to the plate when his country needs him.

Under 1.5 goals 

This is bound to be a tight encounter. Poland only managed to score twice against Faroe Islands while Albania only had one shot in 90 minutes in their last match. Neither of these sides attack with any real positivity or intent, and as a result, we aren’t expecting fireworks.

Under 1.5 goals feels like the right way to go on this occasion, given the complete lack of value the under 2.5 goals market offers at this moment in time. This way you are covering the 0-0 or 1-0 to either team in this tight encounter.