Albania vs Czech Republic Prediction: Sides may settle for stalemate in Tirana

A crucial clash in Uefa Nations League Group B1 takes place at the Air Albania Stadium in Tirana on Saturday evening (19:45, Viaplay International YouTube) as third-placed Albania host leaders Czech Republic, who are only a point ahead of them and second-placed Georgia, who simultaneously take on Ukraine in Batumi on Saturday.

Below is my Albania vs Czech Republic prediction, alongside all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Rubin Kazan's Mirlind Daku is suspended for the visit of the Czechs after picking up his second yellow card of the Nations League campaign in last month's 1-0 win over Georgia in Tbilisi. Fellow forwards Armando Broja (Everton, on loan from Chelsea) and Rey Manaj (Sivasspor) remain injured, leaving Brazilian head coach Sylvinho light in attack.

Sparta Prague's Indrit Tuci started away to Georgia and looks likely to lead the line again on Saturday, supported by club teammate Qazim Laci and Gwangju's Jasir Asani.

Meanwhile, experienced defenders Marash Kumbulla (Espanyol, on loan from Sassuolo) and Berat Djimsiti (Atalanta) have been forced to withdraw from this month's squad after both came off injured in the first half of their most recent domestic outings.

Football Odds

The Czech Republic are once again missing Bayer Leverkusen striker Patrik Schick, despite the 28-year-old starting and scoring in the reigning Bundesliga champion's 1-1 draw with VFL Bochum last Saturday. As a result, Slavia Prague's Tomas Chory, who bagged a brace in his nation's 2-0 win over Albania in Prague last month, is set to start up top for Ivan Hasek's side.

Hasek will also have to make do without defensive trio Ladislav Krejci (Girona), Martin Vitik (Sparta Prague) and David Zima (Slavia Prague), who have all withdrawn from the squad for this month's fixtures. Krejci and Vitik both began their country's last game, a 1-1 draw with Ukraine in Poland last month, forcing their boss into at least two changes to his starting XI.

Albania vs Czech Republic Odds

*Please click on the link above to be taken to the main Albania vs Czech Republic page on betfred.com (or app) for all the live betting prices on this match.

Albania are underdogs on Saturday with odds of 11/5 giving the hosts an implied win probability of 31.3%, while favourites the Czech Republic (13/10) are rated as a 43.5% chance to do the double over the opponents.

The draw is priced at 9/4, both teams to score at 4/5, and over 2.5 total goals at 11/10.

Chory is 5/2 to score anytime on Saturday, 13/2 to open the scoring, and 16/1 to bag another brace against Albania, who have Asani (11/4) shortest priced in the anytime goalscorer market.

Bet Builder - Over 23.5 Total Shots, Tomas Soucek (CZE) 1+ Shots, Kristjan Asllani (ALB) 1+ Shots on Target, Over 29.5 Total Booking Points @ 4/1

There have been at least 24 shots in three of Albania's four UNL matches - 28 away to Ukraine, 26 away to the Czech Republic, and 26 away to Georgia last time out. The only exception was their 1-0 home defeat to Georgia in September, when there were exactly 23 shots - falling just one short of Saturday's target.

Like Albania, the Czech Republic have seen over 23.5 shots in three of their group games - at home to Ukraine (33), at home to Albania (26), and away to Ukraine (28) - with the outlier being their trip to Georgia in September, when there were 23 efforts at goal - one shy of 24.

Hopes are high, then, that we will see plenty of attempts in Tirana this weekend.

The second leg of this Bet Builder requires the visitors' captain, West Ham United midfielder Tomas Soucek, to register at least one shot - on or off target. The 29-year-old is averaging 0.8 shots per game in Group B1, shooting twice at home against Ukraine and mustering one attempt against the same opposition in the reverse fixture.

He was kept quiet by Albania in Prague last month but with the hosts one up inside three minutes and two to the good just after the hour mark, there was little need for Soucek to burst into the box and get a shot away.

Things are likely to be different this time around and he should prove particularly dangerous at set-piece situations considering his large frame. Soucek is also averaging 1.7 shots per game in this season's Premier League, highlighting his ability to get in and around the box and get shots off.

Up next is a shot on target for Albania and Inter Milan midfielder Kristjan Asllani, who has played the duration of all four Albania group games. The 22-year-old is averaging 2.2 shots per game and 0.8 shots on target per game, scoring with his most recent effort for the Red and Blacks against Georgia, which proved to be the winner.

Asllani took three shots in that match and has also registered multiple at home against the Czech Republic (two), seeing his second effort saved by goalkeeper Matej Kovar, and at home to Georgia (three), while his only shot of the game in Albania's opening-round win against Ukraine in Poland was saved by Anatoliy Trubin.

The Inter man is becoming a key player for his country and seems to be relishing the pressure that comes with it, so I think he looks good for another shot on target this weekend.

Lastly, I'm backing over 29.5 total booking points in Tirana.

With Betfred, a yellow card amounts to 10 booking points, and a red to 25. So, all we need is three yellows, or a red and a yellow, to land this fourth and final selection.

This bet lost narrowly in the reverse fixture with Albania's only booking coming in the 44th minute for Daku, and the Czech's single card arriving in the 83rd minute for Hoffenheim's Adam Hlozek. However, the hosts had the win wrapped up pretty early on which didn't help things, and if events are as tight as I expect them to be on Saturday, things should be different this time around.

There were 65 booking points in last year's Euro 2024 qualifier in Tirana and 40 in Prague earlier in 2023, while Albania's most recent game, away to Georgia, produced 40 booking points.

Meanwhile, there were 50 booking points in last month's 1-1 draw between Ukraine and the Czech Republic in Wroclaw.

Match Result - Draw @ 9/4

I'm finding it difficult to pick a winner either way on Saturday with the Czech Republic winless on their travels, losing 4-1 in Georgia and drawing 1-1 with Ukraine in Poland last time out, and Albania losing their only home game so far 1-0 to Georgia in September.

The Czechs coasted to a 2-0 success in Prague last month but are likely to find things much more difficult in Tirana, where Georgia huffed and puffed until scoring their winner in the 71st minute.

Both sides are missing some key players this weekend and may both be content to take a point heading into their final games next week, with both playing at home - Albania against Ukraine and the Czech Republic against Georgia.

A point would keep each team in the same position if Georgia and Ukraine draw on the same night, while a 1-0 win for Ukraine would keep the Czechs at the top and send Albania to second.

Offers

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