Alaves vs Real Sociedad Prediction: Kubo dimensions too much for number three

A late Las Palmas victory over Atletico Madrid on Friday saw Deportivo Alaves drop into La Liga's relegation zone, and Babazorros' failure to beat Sevilla (1-1) on Saturday means they remain in the bottom three heading into Wednesday's game against European hopefuls Real Sociedad, who drew 2-2 at Villarreal on Sunday. 

Below are my Alaves vs Real Sociedad predictions, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this 20:30 kick-off at the Estadio Mendizorrotza in Vitoria-Gasteiz.

Team News

Morocco international Abdel Abqar missed Saturday's stalemate in Seville with a hamstring injury, and the 26-year-old remains sidelined for Wednesday's fixture, but fellow Alaves defenders Manu Sanchez and Santiago Mourino will return after serving suspensions. Both players could be reinstated to Eduardo Coudet's starting XI, with Aleksandar Sedlar and Facundo Garces most likely to make way for the duo.

Football Odds

Former Middlesbrough man Kike Garcia struck his 12th La Liga goal of the season against Sevilla - at least eight more than any of his teammates - and the 35-year-old looks set to lead the line again in midweek.

As for Real Sociedad, Imanol Alguacil is likely to be without several key players again.

Igor Zubeldia (groin), Nayeuf Aguerd (knee), Orri Oskarsson (hamstring), Ander Barrenetxea (ankle) and Arsen Zakharyan (thigh) all missed Sunday's stalemate at the Estadio de la Ceramica and may remain in La Real's treatment room.

Alvaro Odriozola (muscle) is also doubtful after sitting out his side's last four games.

However, influential midfielder Martin Zubimendi, who is reportedly on his way to Arsenal this summer, is back available after serving a suspension for an accumulation of yellow cards. He's likely to replace Benat Turrientes at the base of La Real's midfield on Wednesday.

Alaves vs Real Sociedad Odds

Real Sociedad are 11 points clear of Alaves in La Liga, yet it's Wednesday's hosts (11/8), who won 2-1 in August's reverse fixture in San Sebastian, installed as favourites for this return meeting. Those odds imply a 42.1% probability of success, while the visitors are 12/5, or a 29.4% chance, to triumph at this venue for the second season running.

The draw is priced at 2/1, both teams to score at 11/10, and over 2.5 total goals at 13/8.

Kike (9/5) heads the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Toni Martinez (12/5), who struck the winner for Alaves in San Sebastian.

Player to Receive a Card - Manu Sanchez @ 18/5

Only three Alaves players have been cautioned more times in La Liga this season than Sanchez (six), who is only just returning from a suspension for a red card he received against Real Madrid.

The 24-year-old is averaging 1.9 fouls per 90 minutes in the Spanish top flight, racking up 45 fouls in total, and in August's reverse fixture, he gave away two free-kicks, despite only coming on in the 63rd minute. Both fouls were made on Takefusa Kubo, the first inside a minute of Sanchez being on the pitch, and the Celta Vigo loanee was booked for the second one.

Kubo, who is fouled, on average, 2.6 times per 90 in this season's La Liga, could pose more problems for Alaves' number three again on Wednesday, so 18/5 for a card looks generous to me.

Draw No Bet - Real Sociedad @ 6/5

Two wins from their last seven La Liga games doesn't exactly inspire confidence for potential backers of Real Sociedad, but those two wins have arrived in their last four, and both were against clubs currently in the bottom four.

La Real are also unbeaten in their last four away matches across all competitions, three of which have come in the league - the other was against Real Madrid in the second leg of their Copa del Rey semi-final tie, which they won 4-3 in regulation time before drawing 4-4 after extra time.

Alaves, meanwhile, have won just once at home in La Liga since November 1 (W1, D3, L5), and they've suffered four defeats in their last five at the Mendizorroza - all without scoring.

Real Sociedad lost the first meeting between the sides this season, but that was back in August, and Alguacil's side were reduced to 10 men in the 29th minute.

If I had to pick a winner, I'd pick the visitors, but not with complete certainty, so the 'Draw No Bet' market provides attraction here. The odds for an away win are reduced to 6/5, but it provides a level of insurance, as if the game ends in a draw, stakes will be returned.

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