AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano Prediction: Greeks to go for broke in bid to resurrect tie

Rayo Vallecano have one foot in the Uefa Conference League semi-finals after beating AEK Athens 3-0 in Madrid last week. The second leg of their quarter-final tie takes place this Thursday (20:00 BST, TNT Sports 9) at the Greek club’s Allwyn Arena, where the hosts will need to win by three goals just to take the tie to extra time.

Below are my AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Serbian striker Luka Jovic is suspended for AEK Athens due to an accumulation of yellow cards in the competition, so boss and compatriot Marko Nikolic will be forced to make at least one change to his starting XI from last week's first leg, with two enforced alterations a real possibility following the half-time withdrawal of Greek midfielder Petros Mantalos in Madrid with a muscle injury.

Football Odds

Rayo Vallecano head coach Inigo Perez made seven changes to his starting XI for Sunday's 3-0 league defeat at Real Mallorca.

He's likely to stick with the same lineup that dispatched AEK so easily last week, meaning recalls for the likes of goalkeeper Augusto Batalla, midfielder Unai Lopez and forward Isi Palazon.

AEK Athens vs Rayo Vallecano Odds

AEK Athens are 11/10 to win in 90 minutes on Thursday, implying a 47.6% probability of success, while Rayo Vallecano are 9/4, or a 30.8% chance, to do the double, with the draw offered at 13/5.

Bet Builder - Stavros Pilios (AEK) 2+ Shots & AEK Over 3.5 Shots on Target @ 3/1

AEK left-back Stavros Pilios, who is averaging 1.4 shots per game in this season's Conference League, has recorded at least two shots in three of his eight competition appearances.

The 25-year-old, born in Rhodes, Greece, but plying his international trade with Albania, will be looking to burst forward at every opportunity on Thursday in search of a goal, and having shown he's not afraid to try his luck, he looks good for at least two shots here.

Today's Football Fixtures

I'm also adding in over 3.5 shots on target for AEK, who have registered at least four in their previous four Conference League home games this season.

Bet Builder - Pep Chavarria & Unai Lopez (both RAY) Shown Any Card @ 11/2

In my opinion, Rayo left-back Pep Chavarria and his midfield teammate Unai Lopez are both likely names to be written in the referee's notebook in Athens on Thursday.

Chavarria has received six yellow cards and one red card in 27 La Liga appearances this season, as well as two yellows in four Conference League contests, and in the latter competition, he has conceded seven fouls across four matches, including once against AEK in last week's first leg.

On Thursday, he's likely to be marking Aboubakary Koita, who is averaging 2.3 fouls won per game in the Conference League, and was taken down three times last week.

We could see another midfield battle between Lopez and AEK counterpart Orbelin Pineda, too.

Pineda was fouled four times in Madrid, conceding two fouls, the same number as Lopez, who is yet to be booked in Europe this season, but has picked up six yellows and one red in La Liga.

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