AEK Athens vs Brighton Prediction: Seagulls to leave Greeks up Group B creek

Brighton can qualify for the next stages of the Europa League with a win at AEK Athens on Thursday evening (17:45), but the Seagulls will face the only side in Group B to have got the better of them so far.

The Greek club won 3-2 at the AMEX Stadium on matchday one in September, causing one of the biggest shocks of the competition so far. Unfortunately for AEK that's about as good as it got for them, as they took just one point from their next three games to leave them on the verge of an exit from the competition.

Brighton have gone the other way, taking seven points from a possible nine on offer since that reverse, and they will fancy their chances of taking top spot from current leaders Marseille.

Team News

Brighton have a lengthy injury list heading into Thursday, with the likes of Pervis Estupinan, Solly March and Adam Webster just a few of the names definitely ruled out.

There are also doubts over Kaoru Mitoma, Ansu Fati and Tariq Lamptey; Mitoma missed Saturday's 3-2 win at Nottingham Forest while Fati and Lamptey both limped off in the first-half of that game. Jan Paul van Hecke is suspended due to an accumulation of yellow cards in the group stage.

Jason Steele has played three of their four games in Europe so far so the 33-year-old goalkeeper could come into the side, while Lewis Dunk and Mahmoud Dahoud should start with both players suspended for their trip to Chelsea on Sunday.

AEK have injury issues themselves to contend with, and they are crossing their fingers over the availability of Trinidad and Tobago international Levi Garcia.

First-choice goalkeeper Cican Stankovic looks likely to return between the sticks for the Greek side after serving a suspension in their last Europa League fixture.

Match Odds

AEK are 13/5 to win for the first time at home in Group B, with a Brighton victory priced at 19/20. The draw is available at 11/4.

Both teams to score is 4/7 and you can find over 2.5 goals at 8/13.

Brighton to win @ 19/20

The contrasting fortunes of these sides in the Europa League since matchday one shows the gulf in quality between the two squads, and I'm confident that result was a one-off.

That's not to say it will be an easy win for Brighton. They are missing a whole host of stars, with the squad severely stretched at the moment, and the AEK fans should create a hostile atmosphere at the OPAP Arena.

Regardless, I expect Roberto De Zerbi's side to do enough to claim the three points, with the likes of Evan Ferguson, Joao Pedro, Pascal Gross and Lewis Dunk all still in the starting line-up.

Brighton's form has been patchy this season but Saturday's victory at the City Ground - a notoriously difficult stadium to visit - should restore some faith in the Seagulls, and they've lost just twice in their last nine games, winning their last two away.

Joao Pedro to score anytime @ 7/4

The club-record signing from Watford played an integral role in turning events around in Nottingham on Saturday, despite not starting the game. Pedro was called upon in the 21st minute by De Zerbi following an injury to Fati, and by half-time, the Brazilian had put his side in the lead. The 22-year-old then scored a penalty in the second-half, his seventh goal of the season and his fifth from a spot-kick.

No player in the Europa League group stage has scored more goals than Pedro's four, which puts him level with Freiburg's Vincenzo Grifo. Two of those were against AEK, both penalties, and the Greeks have since conceded a further three penalties in the group.

Pedro looks a sure-fire candidate to start on Thursday, especially considering the amount of injuries at the club. He should also see out a fair chunk of the game with Brighton's bench likely to be extremely youthful.