AC Milan vs Roma Prediction: Visitors can take advantage of injury-hit hosts

Arguably the standout fixture of this four-game Serie A Sunday comes from San Siro as AC Milan and AS Roma, both enduring difficult campaigns, face off in the evening (19:45, TNT Sports 1).

Read on for my AC Milan vs Roma prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds.

Team News

Milan are enduring something of an injury crisis with Christian Pulisic, Rafael Leao, Ismael Bennacer, Ruben Loftus-Cheek, Yunus Musah, Alessandro Florenzi, Luka Jovic and Noah Okafor all in the treatment room and unavailable for selection this weekend.

Theo Hernandez hasn't started Milan's last two matches but is expected to be restored to the starting XI due to the injury issues faced by head coach Paulo Fonseca, who could field the Frenchman in a more advanced left-wing position to compensate for Leao's absence.

Tammy Abraham, currently on a season-long loan from Roma, is set to feature from the off against his parent club.

Football Odds

Roma have been much more fortunate in the injury department with only ex-Milan midfielder Bryan Cristante expected to miss out on Sunday's contest.

Boss Claudio Ranieri could name an unchanged XI from last weekend's 5-0 thrashing of Parma where, strangely, he opted not to make any substitutions. Enzo Le Fee, Nicola Zalewski, Matias Soule and Lorenzo Pellegrini will all hope to feature at some stage.

AC Milan vs Roma Odds

Milan are 5/4 to chalk up a second Serie A success over Roma at San Siro this calendar year having beaten I Giallorossi 3-1 there on January 14, although Sunday's visitors did win 1-0 there on their last trip in the Europa League quarter-finals on April 11. Roma won both legs of that European tie, triumphing 2-1 in the return fixture in the capital, and are 11/5, or a 31.3% chance, to make it three head-to-head victories in a row.

The draw is priced at 12/5, both teams to score at 4/6, and over 2.5 total goals at 5/6.

Draw No Bet - Roma @ 5/4

Milan have only lost one of their last 11 games in all competitions, going down 2-1 to Atalanta in Bergamo on December 6, and their last defeat before that was against Napoli (0-2) at home on October 29. However, things are far from rosy at San Siro with Milan sat eighth, 15 points behind leaders Atalanta and 14 points behind city rivals Inter, albeit they have two games and one game in hand on La Dea and I Nerazzurri, respectively.

Recent results or performances have hardly been impressive, either. After losing to Atalanta, I Rossoneri scraped past Red Star Belgrade in the Uefa Champions League, beating the Serbian side 2-1 at San Siro courtesy of an 87th-minute winner from Abraham before drawing 0-0 with Genoa at the same venue four days later.

Milan returned to winning ways in Serie A on December 20 with a 1-0 victory over Hellas Verona at the Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, but it was hardly inspiring stuff as they were reliant on some more magic from Dutch midfield maestro Tijjani Reijnders.

On Sunday, Milan face a reinvigorated Roma side who have won four of their last five games including their last one at home against Parma last Sunday. Former Juventus star Paulo Dybala pulled the strings as his brace inspired I Giallorossi to a 5-0 victory over I Crociati.

Still, Ranieri is yet to beat one of Italy's top sides, losing 1-0 to Napoli on his return to the dugout and suffering a 2-0 defeat against Atlanta in Rome the following week. Roma are also yet to win away under his stewardship nor under any of their three managers this season.

Milan's home form in Serie A has been decent in 2024/25 with only Napoli managing to get the better of them at San Siro, but they have also drawn three times there in the league. They played out a 2-2 with Torino on August 17, a goalless draw with Juventus on November 23, and also fired blanks in a 0-0 with Genoa earlier this month.

Considering their injury list, I think Milan are there to be got at on Sunday, and Roma can take advantage to claim their first three points on the road.

Roma are a solid price at 11/5 to take the win, but I think it's worth taking some insurance out and playing Draw No Bet at reduced odds of 5/4, safe in the knowledge that if a stalemate does unfold, you will receive your stake back.

Total Goals - Under 2.5 @ 5/6

Roma put five past Parma last Sunday and have also enjoyed big wins this month over Sampdoria (4-1), Braga (3-0) and Lecce (4-1) in the Coppa Italia, Europa League and Serie A, respectively, but all four of those victories came at the Stadio Olimpico and against inferior sides to Milan.

Away from Rome, I Giallorossi haven't seen anywhere near that amount of goals, and six of their eight league travel matches this season, including both under Ranieri, have finished with two or fewer strikes.

Milan, meanwhile, have conceded an average of just 0.67 goals a game in their three Serie A home outings against other top-half teams this term, and half (four) of their eight home contests have seen under 2.5 total goals.

There has been just one goal scored across their last two matches and with Leao and Pulisic, among others, ruled out of Sunday's clash, another low-scoring encounter is expected at San Siro.

Offers

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