AC Milan vs Napoli Prediction: Gli Azzurri to grind out another positive result on the road

AC Milan were afforded the weekend off after their Serie A match with Bologna on Saturday was postponed because of adverse weather conditions in the Emilia-Romagna region. I Rossoneri, therefore, should be fresh for Tuesday's clash (19:45) with Napoli at San Siro. However, they start the day eight points behind Gli Azzurri, who strengthened their lead at the top with a 1-0 win over Lecce on Saturday.

Below you can find my AC Milan vs Napoli prediction, complete with all the latest team news and match odds, ahead of this meeting between Paulo Fonseca and Antonio Conte.

Team News

Theo Hernandez and Tijjani Reijnders were both banned for Milan's game with Bologna but will now have to serve their suspensions against Napoli. This will have caused consternation for Fonseca, who would've likely selected the duo to start on Tuesday.

Filippo Terracciano could deputise once again at left-back for Hernandez, whom he filled in for during Milan's 1-0 victory over Udinese on October 19. Yunus Musah, meanwhile, is set to replace Reijnders in midfield.

Long-term injury absentees Ismael Bennacer and Alessandro Florenzi remain sidelined, as is Luka Jovic, but Davide Calabria and Tammy Abraham could return to the squad for the visit of Gli Azzurri.

Football Odds

Stanislav Lobotka has missed Napoli's last two games - both 1-0 wins over Empoli and Lecce - and is rated doubtful ahead of Tuesday, so Scotland international Billy Gilmour could make a third consecutive start in midfield alongside Scott McTominay and Frank Anguissa.

Conte could make a couple of changes to the starting XI that lined up on the weekend with Matteo Politano and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, both second-half substitutes against Lecce, expected to replace David Neres and Cyril Ngonge on the wings and join Romelu Lukaku in an exciting front three.

AC Milan vs Napoli Odds

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Milan are 11/8 to make it back-to-back wins in Serie A, giving I Rossoneri an implied probability of 57.9%, while Napoli are 15/8, or a 34.8% chance, to make it five victories in a row in the competition.

The draw, meanwhile, is priced at 5/2, and both teams to score at 8/13.

Milan forwards Abraham and Alvaro Morata (2/1) lead the anytime goalscorer market, followed by Napoli's Lukaku (21/10).

Double Chance & Over/Under 2.5 Total Goals - Draw or Napoli & Under @ 9/5

Napoli are unbeaten since losing their first league game under Conte on August 18, when Hellas Verona stunned Gli Azzurri 3-0 at the Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. The former Chelsea and Juventus head coach has turned things around to win seven of his next eight Serie A matches, the only blot on his copybook in that period being a goalless draw at the home of the Old Lady, who finished third last season.

Conte's side have recorded six clean sheets in that time, including three in their last four games, and they hold the joint-best defensive record (alongside Juve) with just five goals conceded this term.

There were some high-scoring encounters at the start of the season with that defeat to Verona followed by a 3-0 win over Bologna, a 2-1 success against Parma, and a 4-0 thrashing of Cagliari.

Since then, however, only one game - a 3-1 triumph at home to Como - has seen more than two goals, with wins over Monza (2-0), Empoli (1-0) and Lecce (1-0) all arriving after that September 21 stalemate at Juve.

Milan, meanwhile, have endured an up-and-down campaign so far under new boss Fonseca.

The Portuguese tactician began life at Milan with a three-game winless run that saw I Rossoneri draw 2-2 at home with both Torino and Lazio either side of a 2-1 defeat at Parma. Fonseca's side have recovered from that poor start to win three of their last four matches in Serie A, however, while back-to-back Uefa Champions League losses to Liverpool (1-3) and Bayer Leverkusen (0-1) were followed by a 3-1 victory over Club Brugge last Tuesday.

Milan go in search of a third-straight win in all competitions in midweek, but I have doubts over their ability to get a point, let alone all three.

In fairness to Tuesday's hosts, they did rise to the occasion last month as they beat city rivals and reigning champions Inter 2-1 in the Milan derby.

However, I Rossoneri have failed to win all their other 'big' games this season, losing away to Liverpool, Leverkusen and Fiorentina, and drawing at home to Lazio.

Those results don't offer much confidence heading into a contest with the early pacesetters who have won their last four league matches, conceding just once.

Napoli have also kept three consecutive clean sheets away from home since shipping three strikes on the opening day of the season to Verona.

Four of Napoli's last five league games, including their last two travel matches, have seen under 2.5 total goals, so I think we could be in for another low-scoring contest on Tuesday.

The fact Napoli have been afforded a relatively kind fixture list at the start of the campaign is what stops me from backing them for a win, however.

Gli Azzurri have only faced two of last season's top 10 so far and beaten just one of them, Bologna, who have changed manager and won just once this term.

A draw at Juve was a creditable result for Conte and his charges but perhaps points at the fact that he will be happy to pick up a point at the biggest clubs, safe in the knowledge that they can do the business at home and against the lesser-backed sides.

Napoli are already four points clear at the top after closest challengers Inter and Juve played out a pulsating 4-4 draw in Milan on Sunday, so a draw at last season's runners-up on Tuesday wouldn't be a bad result at all.

Most Corners - AC Milan @ 8/11

Only Inter (7.1) are averaging more corners taken per game than Milan (6.5) in Serie A this season, while Napoli are only fifth (5.89) in that particular table.

Milan, meanwhile, are conceding an average of 3.5 corners per game - only Atalanta (2.7), Inter (3.2) and Como (3.4) are averaging fewer - with Napoli on 4.1, higher than six clubs.

Gli Azzurri lost the corner count 3-4 away to Juve last month and have only won it once on their travels this term, in their heavy defeat to Verona, where they spent much of the second half pressing for goals.

Milan have won the corner count in three of their four home league games and I'd expect I Rossoneri to be the ones to take the initiative on Tuesday, with Napoli happy to sit and soak up the pressure.

I think the visitors would be content to take a draw, while there is more pressure on Milan to take all three points at home and prove that they can challenge at the top.

As such, I'm backing Milan to take more shots which could, ultimately, yield more corners for the hosts.

Offers

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