AC Milan vs Cagliari Prediction: Another clean sheet for I Rossoneri

Fresh from their Supercoppa Italiana triumph over bitter rivals Inter Milan in Saudi Arabia, AC Milan return to Serie A action against Cagliari on Saturday (19:45, TNT Sports 1), whom they welcome to San Siro. The hosts are unbeaten in their last four league encounters on home soil.

Cagliari took a point against their opponents in the reverse fixture back in November, playing out an enthralling 3-3 draw. They have lost four of their last five, however, so this encounter may prove more difficult. Check out my AC Milan vs Cagliari prediction below, accompanied by the latest match odds and team news.

AC Milan vs Cagliari Odds

With this clash seeing eighth take on 17th, it doesn't come as a surprise to see AC Milan as the favourites. They are 3/10, which has an implied probability of 76.9% to win this fixture. This does seem quite low as they have won just four of their nine home league matches to date in the league. However, this is likely due to the fact that the visitors have lost four of their last six contests on the road.

Cagliari are 8/1 to pull off an upset, which may have some value as they have won two of their nine away games this campaign, so this price is considered a little more generous than perhaps it should be.

The two teams drew when they last met and the stalemate is on offer at 4/1 (20%), which could be a smart pick up as Milan have drawn three of their last four Serie A matches at San Siro.

Both teams to score No has landed on seven occasions inside this ground in 2024/25, and this market is available at 4/5 for Saturday night.

Football Odds

Team News

After making a major impact from the bench in Riyadh in Monday's final, winger Rafael Leao could be declared fit enough to start his first game for Sergio Conceicao on Saturday.

Having been summoned from the bench for the Super Cup matches in Saudi Arabia, Fikayo Tomori appears to be the new boss' first choice centre-back, while goalkeeper Mike Maignan has been handed the captain's armband.

Noah Okafor, Samuel Chukwueze and Alessandro Florenzi remain unavailable for selection due to injury, while former Tottenham Hotspur defender Emerson Royal is out due to suspension after picking up his fourth yellow card of the campaign against Hellas Verona.

Midfielder Tijjani Reijnders has scored in the last two league matches, and he is set to keep his place in the side. He'll be eager to keep his scoring streak going.

Up front, Conceicao could opt to name Englishman Tammy Abraham as the starting centre-forward in place of Alvaro Morata, following the former's injury time-winning goal in Monday's final.

Cagliari will head to Milan without wide man Zito Luvumbo, while Colombian defender Yerry Mina is considered to be a doubt for the weekend as the result of an ankle sprain.

Shot-stopper Elia Caprile could be in line to make his debut for Gli Isolan, having just arrived from Napoli in the transfer window as part of a swap deal involving Simone Scuffet.

At the top end of the pitch, Atalanta loanee Roberto Piccoli should be aided by one of Nicolas Viola or Gianluca Gaetano. Piccoli's 18 career goals in Serie A to date have impressively come against 18 different opponents, but he is yet to score against I Rossoneri - something he will hope to change on Saturday night.

AC Milan to win to nil @ 11/10

Milan will be buoyed from their Supercoppa Italiana triumph and will look to channel that into the second half of the league campaign as they have ground to make up in the race for the top four (eight points).

They have a strong home record and have tasted defeat just once. They have more draws (four) than they would have liked but they will hope to convert more of their San Siro games into wins moving forward.

I think they can return with a bang after their Riyadh adventure. In the two matches they played overseas, Milan scored five goals, including three in the final. You have to go back to November for their last three-goal showing in the league, which came on home soil against Empoli.

I Rossoneri certainly have the attacking talent to score more goals at home, having managed just one in their last two appearances here. The cup triumph will have given the whole squad a lift and this could act as a catalyst for their performances for the rest of the season.

All of their league victories at San Siro have been to nil this term, which bodes well for this selection in my opinion. They have also kept clean sheets in three of the last four contests inside this ground.

Cagliari have also failed to score in three of their last five appearances in the top flight, so I think backing AC Milan to win to nil could be a smart selection.

Rafael Leao anytime goalscorer @ 7/5

It would be ideal if this man were to start on Saturday but I'm confident in his abilities that I could see him grabbing a goal from the bench if required. The Portugal international may only have three goals in 15 Serie A appearances this season but he boasts an impressive record against the visitors.

Leao has scored five league goals against Cagliari to date, and he has found the back of the net in each of the last two meetings at San Siro. It feels as though there is value to be had in backing this trend to continue at the weekend. On top of this, Leao scored two of his goals for the current campaign in the 3-3 draw in the reverse fixture back in November.

The visiting side must be sick of facing him, whereas the winger will probably be wishing he could play against them more.

Offers

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