AC Milan vs Inter Milan Prediction: A derby for the Scudetto and pride
The two biggest Serie A matches of the weekend are both to be played on Monday night with the second of them, a 19:45 kick-off live on TNT Sports 1 as the Milan Derby takes pride of place.
Our Italian Football expert Daniele Fisichella previews the action from the San Siro and offers up his two Best Bets for the match as part of his AC Milan vs Inter Milan predictions...
The Rossoneri were outplayed by Roma also in the second leg of the Europa League quarter-finals and this derby represents the last chance to save their pride.
With the runners-up spot in Serie A not in danger, AC Milan’s only motivation is to stop their city rivals from celebrating the Scudetto in front of their nose.
A tough ask for Stefano Pioli’s men who have lost the last five derbies ‘Della Madonnina’ with an aggregate score of 12-1.
The manager’s choices in Rome, in particular leaving Tijjani Reijnders out of the starting XI, did not convince but it was AC Milan’s approach as a whole that disappointed the most.
As it happened just a week before against the Giallorossi, the Rossoneri did not show enough eagerness and focus and their attacking moves, not helped by a change of system, looked confused.
AC Milan star players, Leao, Pulisic and Giroud, only partially delivered (the Portuguese provided the assist for Gabbia’s irrelevant goal) and despite playing for over an hour against ten men, due to Celik’s straight sending off, the Rossoneri hardly troubled Svilar’s goal.
Roma deserved the qualification as Daniele De Rossi’s side came closer to score the third goal than the visitors to equalise.
With Pioli’s job on the line (although many believe his tenure will be coming to an end in June), can the 2021/2022 champions pick themselves up and spoil Inter’s party?
Three points on Monday night will clinch the Scudetto for Simone Inzaghi’s side.
The Nerazzurri have dominated the league and winning the title in the derby would be an even greater pleasure than having knocked AC Milan out of last year’s Champions League.
Lately, the league leaders have slightly taken their foot off the gas, conceding in four of their last six league games as they gave away cheap goals at home against both Napoli and Cagliari in the last quarter of an hour.
Last Sunday 2-2 draw against the Sardinians meant Inter can no longer achieve the record of points in Serie A (102, which belonged to Antonio Conte’s Juventus in 2013/2014), but a success in the derby would represent the successful completion of an amazing season where their final victory has never been in doubt.
Team News:
Stefano Pioli is looking to confirm almost the same XI that played the Europa League tie.
Giroud will lead the attack with Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek and Leao in support.
Reijnders and Bennacer will play in the middle, but the Algerian international might be replaced by Adli. Thiaw is suspended, therefore Tomori and Gabbia will be the centre-backs with Calabria and
Theo Hernandez is expected to play at full-back. Maignan, who did not play the last league game at Sassuolo, will be in goal.
The Nerazzurri welcome back Pavard in defense and Serie A top goalscorer Lautaro Martinez in attack, who both served their respective suspensions.
The Frenchman will complete the back three with Acerbi and Bastoni. The Argentine striker will form a partnership with Thuram up front, Sanchez and Arnautovic will start from the bench.
Calhanoglu will be the playmaker, with Mkhitaryan and Barella either side of him. Dimarco and Darmian will play on the flanks, Dumfries will probably come on the second half.
Kalulu, Pobega and Cuadrado are all sidelined with injuries.
*Click the link for all the live prices in the AC Milan vs Inter Milan match markets on betfred.com
A win for Inter, which will crown them champions of Italy for the 20th time, pays out at Even money (1/1).
The visitors have only lost one Serie A game this season (2-1 against Sassuolo) and have only been beaten three times in the last 18 Milan derbies.
Inter have obtained the three points at least once against all the clubs that occupy Serie A’s top 10 and have kept eight clean sheets in those big matches.
The Nerazzurri have scored in every single league game so far (a record that stretches to the 2022/2023 campaign, for a total of 40 consecutive encounters) and have only trailed for about 30 minutes in the league this season.
Identical odds (13/5) for a draw and an AC Milan. Inter have drawn five Serie A games this season, three of them 1-1 and AC Milan are alongside Bologna and Torino Serie A’s best defence at home with only eight goals conceded.
Both teams have scored in six of the last eight Serie A meetings and no team has played more league games with four goals or more than AC Milan (15 out of 32) this season.
However Inter holds the record for most league clean sheets (19, only three short of Juventus’ all-time record), but the hosts have only failed to score twice this season (against Juventus and Udinese, both times at San Siro).
Over 2.5 Goals pays 8/11, whereas the Under 2.5 goals doubles your stake (1/1 odds).
Inter To Score The First Goal @ 7/10
Inter, who are obviously more rested, will feel the urge to press forward and score early as they normally do: the average time of their first goal is 32 minutes, the quickest in Serie A.
But they won’t take too many risks, in fact they know a draw would only postpone the party of six days, until their next home game against Torino.
In the reverse fixture, which Inter won 5-1, the Rossoneri pressed high and gaps in their midfield line were easily exploited by Inter’s runs from deep and in the wide areas.
It’s unlikely AC Milan will control the ball and will probably play more on the counter-attack, especially initially. If in the end the points get shared, nobody would be too unhappy.
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1/1
AC Milan simply can’t afford to get beaten again.
For too long the Rossoneri have been below Inter and, despite their positive season (they’ve got one more point at this stage than when they won the Scudetto in 2021/2022), a defeat would probably mean the end of Stefano Pioli’s tenure as manager.
In 2024 the hosts have collected just five points less than the Nerazzurri and scored 31 goals against Inter’s 35.
An aspect Inter could definitely improve next season is their ability to manage leads, especially in front of their crowd
Often during the current campaign they dominated but missed important scoring chances (like against Atlético Madrid) and gave opponents (for example Bologna, Sassuolo or Verona and lately Napoli and Cagliari) a lifeline.
You can check out all of Daniele's Serie A Betting Tips here each week along with those of our other Italian Football writers...
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