AC Milan vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction: Giroud takes Group F to the wire

Borussia Dortmund travel to Italy this week knowing a victory against AC Milan on Tuesday night (20:00) will secure their spot in the last 16 of the Champions League.

The German club are currently top of Group F - which also features PSG and Newcastle - and three points at San Siro would ensure they finish above both Milan and Newcastle, regardless of the result in the other game.

Milan, meanwhile, can overtake Dortmund with a win and put their fate in their own hands on the final matchday next month.

Team News

Milan's chances of a win here were dealt a monumental blow earlier this month with the injury suffered to Rafael Leao, who will miss out on Tuesday alongside Noah Okafor and Pierre Kalulu. There are positive sounds over Simon Kjaer, though, who could return from a muscle issue.

Yunus Musah is suspended after picking up three yellow cards in Champions League four appearances.

Dortmund expect to have Sebastien Haller, Karim Adeyemi and Emre Can back after the trio missed Saturday's 4-2 win over Borussia Monchengladbach, but Felix Nmecha and Niklas Sule have been ruled out, while there are doubts over Marcel Sabitzer.

Match Odds

Milan are EVS to pick up a crucial three points at home while Dortmund are 13/5 to get the win they need to progress into the knockout phase. A repeat of the draw in Dortmund is 5/2, and it's 10/1 for the 0-0 scoreline again.

Olivier Giroud to score anytime @ 6/4

Giroud was suspended for Milan's 1-0 win over Fiorentina on Saturday so the 37-year-old should be well-rested for this one, and with Leao out of action, the goalscoring burden is well and truly on his shoulders.

Milan have scored just twice in the Champions League this term, with Giroud and Leao grabbing a goal each in the 2-1 win over PSG last time out. The Frenchman was prolific in last season's competition, too, scoring five in 12 games as the Italian giants reached the semi-final.

Giroud is also his club's top scorer in Serie A, with only Inter's Lautaro Martinez (13) scoring more than his seven. Christian Pulisic, who returned from injury against Fiorentina, is second on the list for Milan with four league goals.

Clearly, there is a lot of pressure on Giroud as the main main in Leao's absence, but after already scoring against the likes of Roma, Napoli and PSG this season, there is every reason to back him to produce the goods in a high-pressure situation again.

Dortmund are particularly vulnerable from set-pieces, and as anyone who has watched Giroud over the past decade-plus can attest to, those are situations from which the ex-Arsenal striker thrives on.

AC Milan or draw and under 2.5 goals @ 11/8

As previously mentioned, Milan have been goal-shy so far in the Champions League, failing to score in three of their group games.

Saturday's 1-0 win over Fiorentina was also another reminder of how they tend to grind results out at home, and it was the third time in four - and fourth in the last six - that just a single goal was scored at San Siro (two games in their favour, two against).

In fact, since beating Torino 4-1 there on August 26th, there have been under 2.5 goals in six of Milan's last seven home games at San Siro.

Dortmund, meanwhile, have seen under 2.5 goals in both of their away games in Europe, losing 2-0 at PSG before winning 1-0 at Newcastle. A draw wouldn't be a bad result for Edin Terzic's side, so the gung-ho Dortmund of old might be put on ice unless they really need to go for it.

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