La Vuelta Stage 3 Predictions: 33/1 and 25/1 picks on breakaway day

Stage three of the 2025 Vuelta a Espana should be won within a breakaway after Sunday’s action saw race favourite Jonas Vingegaard pip our selection Giulio Ciccone to the victory and the maillot rojo (live on TNT Sports 3  from 13:00 BST, highlights at 22:00). 

On Monday we have a 134.6km stage from San Maurizio Canavese to Ceres in what will be the final full day in Italy, with Tuesday seeing us head into France before the transfer to Spain. My La Vuelta Stage 3 predictions follow, with a breakaway very much on the mind.

La Vuelta Betting Odds

Just as on Sunday, there is an ascent up to the finish at Ceres, but the big difference between the two stages is that there is far more undulation approaching that final climb than we saw in stage two to Limone Piemonte.

Indeed, the biggest hill of the day is at Issiglio, around 50 per cent of the way through the stage. It is a category-two 5.5km climb at an average of 6.5%, and from there come a couple of uncategorised uphill sections which will work in the favour of those ahead of the main pack.

The climb at the end of the stage is a Cat 4 effort at 3.4% lasting 2.6km to the finish line.

Too straightforward to be a great separator in the GC standings, this should be too early in the race for the leading lights to expend big energy attempting to bridge a gap. Although we thought that about Sunday’s stage too. Still, the high-profile teams will likely let the breakaway go and assess from there.

There may well be a number of riders looking to get ahead of the peloton from the off, but once there is a settled bunch pulling clear that should really set the tone for the afternoon.

Mads Pedersen is the huge favourite to come up with the goods in Ceres, and Betfred have him priced at 4/6 to take the tape. Alpecin-Deceuninck’s Jasper Philipsen is next up at 7/1 having handed over the red jersey to Vingegaard on Sunday.

Ethan Vernon is 12/1 and Orluis Aular 16/1. Tom Pidcock and the heroic Axel Zingle, who dislocated his shoulder twice on stage two, are both 25/1.

Cycling Odds

Finn Fisher-Black @ 33/1

Who are the GC contenders going to allow to get away ahead of the main group? The guys they don’t expect to be a genuine threat for red, that’s who.

There shouldn’t be enough in this one to make a deficit unbridgeable in the overall standings, but the main teams won’t want to take too many chances.

And while Finn Fisher-Black is uber-talented, there’s no real expectation that he’ll challenge given that this is only his second Grand Tour appearance and he is part of a Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe team putting most of its eggs in the baskets of Jai Hindley and Giulio Pellizzari.

But Fisher-Black showed in his previous participation at La Vuelta two years ago that he can play a part from the front among the breakaway riders. Twice in that edition he joined breaks of 20-plus to set the tone early, and the 23-year-old New Zealander could be a prime candidate to get himself involved again on Monday.

Given that Pedersen is a huge favourite, it’s not really worth spending 200 words telling you to back him. And if the break can stay away, someone of Fisher-Black’s ilk can definitely be up there come the final stages.

At 33/1 and an implied probability of 2.9%, who says no?

Tom Pidcock E/W @ 25/1

I went with Pidcock on Sunday and he was in the fight right to the final 100 metres or so. Not quite as agonising as Giulio Ciccone being beaten on the line, but a close shout all the same.

Now I’m backing the Brit again. And this kind of supposes that any breakaway will be reeled in to an extent since Pidcock is leading Q36.5’s charge in the general classification.

Most seem to see the former Ineos-Grenadiers star as an outside shot only, and he’s a 100/1 shot with Betfred for outright glory. But it’s unlikely he would be given too much leeway by the leading teams to build up a big advantage in a breakaway on this stage.

But he showed the power he has late in proceedings when battling it out with Vingegaard and Ciccone on Sunday and if he is in the mix on Monday then a fifth stage win of the year isn’t out of the question at 25/1. He’s got to be worth an each-way shout at least.

You can read all our latest Cycling Betting Tips here.