Tour de France Stage 5 Predictions: Can 3/1 Philipsen make it three straight wins for Kris?

The first flat stage of the 2026 Tour de France is on Wednesday, with the sprinters set to take the spotlight on the 158.3km route from Lannemezan to Pau for Stage 5 (live from 12:30pm BST on TNT Sports 1, highlights from 7pm on Channel 5).

Tadej Pogacar sacrificed the yellow jersey on Tuesday as the GC contenders allowed the breakaway riders to make hay, and Mads Pedersen’s victory means we’re going for a third straight winning tip on Wednesday. My Tour de France Stage 5 predictions are below.

Tour de France Betting Odds

Soudal Quick-Step’s big sprinting hope, Tim Merlier, is the 6/4 favourite with Betfred for this first flat stage.

Alpecin-Premier Tech’s Jasper Philipsen is 3/1 to add to his 10 career Tour de France wins, while Biniam Girmay of NCN Cycling is a 10/3 shot.

Beyond them, Olav Kooij is 4/1 and Pedersen is at 14s to win a second successive stage. It’s 50/1 bar those.

Cycling Odds

There’s no real science to the parcours on Wednesday, with a single Cat 3 climb barely worthy of the name.

It is an 8.8% average gradient up the Cote de Baleix, peaking 25km from home, but the entire climb lasts for just one kilometre.

Other than that, there’s only slight undulations, with just 1,377 metres of elevation in total compared to 2,684 in Tuesday’s Stage 4 into Foix.

That being the case, there’s absolutely no chance this is anything other than a bunch sprint.

Go on Cycling Gods… Prove me wrong!

Jasper Philipsen @ 3/1

Betfred are quoting 8/11 about one of Merlier and Philipsen to win the stage, with 11/10 for the field if you think neither will cross the line first.

Tempting though that is, I’m happy enough to back Philipsen to pip his compatriot to the victory.

Jasper the Master has quite the history on this platform, showing his class time and again to beat most of the biggest names in road cycling along the way.

And if it comes down to the straight head-to-head with Merlier that many are predicting, I like Jasper to make the most of having a truly elite leadout man in Mathieu van der Poel in the ranks at Alpecin.

Sure, Merlier now has Dylan van Baarle in his paddock, but Van der Poel and Philipsen have shown to be a magical 1-2 in the Grand Tours.

That 3/1 price isn’t too shabby considering their quality.