West Indies v England Prediction: 3/1 Saqib still in the Mahmood in 4th T20

It's the fourth match of the T20I Series, at Gros Islet on Saturday evening at 20:00 with live broadcast on TNT Sports. 

Jamie Pacheco was on the money with a 6/1 winner on Rovman Powell last time out and has just the one 3/1 selection this time, so read on to find out who it is and why as he takes us through his West Indies vs England Predictions...

West Indies  

It's not hard to see where things went wrong for the West Indies: they had yet another horror Powerplay, losing a wicket in each of the first four overs, including the messy run-out of Shai Hope in the first over of the game. You're not going to win many matches from a position of 21/4. 

But bad news for the Windies meant good news for us.  

Top bat selection Rovman Powell's arrival at the crease was delayed by promoting Roston Chase to four but he didn't have to wait long with Chase falling for just seven and paving the way for Powel to come in, hit some big shots in anger, steady the ship, build a good partnership with Romario Shepherd and give his side some sort of chance after a well-made 54 off 41. Good work for him, good work for the column, that returned a 6/1 winner.  

To be fair to the Windies, they made a good first of defending a sub-par total with Akeal Hossein particularly impressive with 4-22 and fellow spinner Gudakesh Motie also very economical with 1-27. The returning Alzarri Joesph was the most expensive. Our other selection (for Windies top bowler) Romario Shepherd was economical himself but went wicketless, limiting our profit for the game to 'just' five points!   

Sherfane Rutherford or Brandon King could return for this one but then again, there's a reason why they were dropped to begin with.  

Possible XI: King, Lewis/Hope, Pooran, Rutherford, Powell, Hetmyer, Chase, Hossein, Shepherd, Motie, Alzarri Joseph/Hinds.  

England 

An excellent display from England and a reminder that they can be very good in this format on their day, especially when you consider the absences of three or four players preparing for Test match duty who aren't here.  

Saqib Mahmood was excellent in taking three early wickets, Jamie Overton took three of his own a bit later and Jofra Archer didn't go for many runs so was important, too.  

Good knocks from Will Jacks, Liam Livingstone and top-scorer Sam Curran got England home. Not without a few wobbles but they were favourites throughout the whole chase. 

Archer is highly unlikely to play yet again with the Series won and it seems a bit pointless to bring back Adil Rashid when it's a good chance to have another look at what Rehan Ahmed can do. Rashid is 36 and England need to start preparing for life without him, so this is exactly the sort of match where there's more upside to leaving him out than playing him.  

Possible XI: Salt, Jacks, Buttler, Livingstone, Bethell, Curran, Mousley, Overton, Mahmood, Rehman/Rashid, Archer/Turner. 

Pitch and conditions  

We're at Gros Islet for this one again and we're also staying here for the fifth and final match on Sunday.  

The 145/8 that the Windies posted was below par and as a result of a poor start so 160/170 is probably a more realistic target for the side batting first.     

Though chasing has been the way to go all Series and should be the case here again, that wasn't straightforward either with some turn and bounce in the second innings. It will be interesting to see if Jos Buttler decides to bat first just to give his side some practice of doing that, should he win the toss.  

West Indies vs England 4th T20 Odds

8/11 (58% implied probability) on England doesn't look a bad price at all given they're 3-0 up and have been better in all three disciplines. There's always the danger that there might be some complacency with the Series won but that's unlikely here with just about every player bar Buttler not guaranteed their place in England's best T20I XI, when everyone is available.  

You'd think that sooner or later the Windies (11/10, 46.6%) will click given the talent they have but one needs to add poor decision-making to poor player form and those are two serious barriers at this level. England should win but we'll leave this one alone.  

England Top Bowler  

Saqib Mahmood's eight wickets in the Powerplay overs in this Series is already a record for a bi-lateral Series in terms of scalps in the first six and the even better news for him is that he still has two games to improve on that!  

Powerplay wickets account for eight of the nine he's taken in returning figures of 4/34, 2/20 and 3/17 so far. It's not hard to reckon that these are wickets he's loving to bowl on and that he may carry on having success here, particularly against such a flaky and error-ridden Windies top order.  

But there's another good reason why he rates a good bet here at 3/1. Rival in this market Archer (14/5) is unlikely to play and Rashid (14/5), always a danger himself, may miss out, too. Whoever comes in for those two if they don't feature, won't beat the same level so Mahmood may not have much to beat, especially with all of Curran, Livingstone and Bethell unlikely to bowl their four.