India vs Pakistan Prediction: Four bets for the Asia Cup final

After pipping Sri Lanka in a Super Over on Friday to maintain their unbeaten record, India face off against Pakistan, for the first ever Asia Cup final between the old rivals.

Dan Thomas takes a look at the best betting angles for Sunday’s showdown, live on TNT Sport from 15:30, as he brings us his India vs Pakistan predictions…

India

After posting the first score of over 200 in the tournament on Friday, India would have been confident of a comfortable victory but a superb century from Pathum Nissanka drove Sri Lanka to within a run of an incredible chase of 203. SL made a mess of the Super Over, but it was certainly more stressful than India would have wanted ahead of Sunday’s showdown.

Abishek Sharma continued his incredible form with the bat, with his explosive 61 off 31 taking his tournament total to 309, which has already broken the record for runs in a T20 Asia Cup, beating Mohammad Rizwan’s 281 in 2022.

This will be the third time these two have met in the tournament, with India posting comfortable wins in both matches. Jasprit Bumrah and Shivam Dube should return to the XI after being rested for the Sri Lanka match.

Pakistan

Pakistan arrive having ground out a nervy, low-scoring win over Bangladesh to seal their place in the final, posting 135 for 8 and defending it to win by 11 with Shaheen Afridi and Haris Rauf doing the heavy lifting with the ball, picking up three wickets apiece.

Pakistan have won every game in the tournament, bar the two they played against India and they struggled to make an impact in either. In the group game, Pakistan spluttered to 127-9 batting first, only getting to that total thanks to a late cameo from Shaheen Afridi. They did post a more competitive 171-5 in the second meeting, but India chased it down with ease.

That win meant India have now beaten Pakistan in seven straight games, with the dominance leading Suryakumar Yadav to suggest there is no ‘rivalry’ between the sides anymore. If Pakistan didn’t already have enough motivation to win the match, those comments will certainly have provided it. 

India vs Pakistan Predicted line-ups

India:

Abhishek Sharma, Shubman Gill, Suryakumar Yadav (c), Sanju Samson (wk), Tilak Varma, Shivam Dube, Hardik Pandya, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Jasprit Bumrah, Varun Chakravarthy.

Pakistan:

Sahibzada Farhan, Fakhar Zaman, Saim Ayub, Salman Ali Agha (c), Hussain Talat, Mohammad Haris (wk), Mohammad Nawaz, Shaheen Afridi, Faheem Ashraf, Haris Rauf, Abrar Ahmed.

India vs Pakistan Odds

The traders unsurprisingly have India as overwhelming favourites for this one at 1/4, with Pakistan rated as 11/4 chances. A surprise is not completely out of the equation - Pakistan had an against-the-odds win in the 2021 World Cup match between the sides  - but this isn’t a market we’ll be getting involved with.

The in-form Sharma heads the top batter market for India at 14/5, with opening partner Shubman Gill at 11/4 and skipper Yadav a 3/1 shot. Fakhar Zaman and Sahibzada Farhan are joint favourites at 11/4 to top score for Pakistan, with Saim Ayub a 7/2 shot. Fans of a long shot might consider Shaheen Afridi here at 20/1 - he has a strike rate of nearly 190 for the tournament and hit 33 off 16 in the Group stage match against India.

On the bowling front, Bumrah and Kuldeep Yadav - the tournament’s top wicket taker - share favouritism for India at 13/5, with Varun Chakravarthy a 3/1 chance. Pacers Shaheen Afridi and Haris Rauf head the market for Pakistan at 11/4, with Hasan Ali at 3/1.

Best bets

Abhishek Sharma has been the standout batter in the tournament - with his half-century against Sri Lanka making it seven consecutive scores over 30 in T20s - and he is the centre-piece for our betting portfolio for the final.

We’ll back Sharma to beat his runs line of 27.5 and split stakes on a first ball boundary (0.5pts on 4 at 3/1 and 0.5pts on 5+ at 9/1). Sharma hit Afridi for a four and a six off his first two balls in the group game, and a first-ball six in the Super Fours.

And with Pakistan’s top order batsmen struggling for big scores in the tournament, we’ll also take a flyer on Afridi top scoring at 20/1. It might only need a quick score of 30-odd to win and he’s shown he’s more than capable.

Dan Thomas 2025 Cricket P/L: 

Staked: 48.5pts

Returned: 42.66pts

P/L: -5.84pts