India vs Bangladesh Prediction: Why 9/2 Varma and 9/1 Dube are overpriced

Jamie Pacheco previews the India v Bangladesh T20I match played at this year's Asia Cup, played in Dubai on Wednesday, with a start time of 15:30 and live on TNT Sports.  

Our cricket tipster is eyeing up 'outsiders' at 9/1 and 9/2 respectively from within the India camp to top the bowling and batting charts, so let's find out his reasoning behind those as we go through his India vs Bangladesh Predictions...

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

India  

It seems like it doesn't matter what you throw at this lot, they always find a way to win matches.  

They're now four from four in this tournament and it's going to take a monumental effort from someone to win even one match against them at the Asia Cup. Not only do India dominate proceedings from the start at ICC Tournaments; worryingly they seem to get better as they progress, so we may yet see the best of them in the final (that they will inevitably make), which is a pretty scary concept for the other teams still left in it.  

All that said, Pakistan contributed as much to their own downfall as India contributed to their own eventual win on Sunday. Pakistan did all the hard work by building a platform and were 91/1 after 10 overs, on target for a 200+ score, before a few boundary-less overs stopped their momentum and in the end their score of 171/5 was about 20 runs short of what they should have got. Quite why they didn't go down the route of promoting Shaheen Shah Afridi up the order, as suggested in our India vs Pakistan preview, rather than watch the likes of Hussain Talat hit 10 off 11, we'll never know.  

But none of that is India's problem. Shivam Dube showed his value with the ball, taking 2-33 off four overs, while a strong opening partnership from Abishek Sharma and Shubman Gill in reply meant the target was never an issue.  

Varun Chakravarthy carries on being quite economical but hasn't taken many wickets, so Arshdeep Singh could come in for him in the only expected change.  

Bangladesh   

Right, let's be realistic and assume Bangladesh lose this one.  

It still means that victory over Pakistan in the last Super Four match should be enough to see them through and even if they don't manage that, they could still go through on net run rate, if other results go their way.  

The reason they're in a good position is because they chased Sri Lanka's 168/7 with a ball to spare on Saturday afternoon.  

Veteran Mustafizur Rahman rolled back the years to take 3-20 before Saif Hassan's 61 off 45 and Towhid Hridoy's 58 off 37 had them way ahead of the game in the chase, before some nervy moments at the end; but they got there eventually.  

It would be some effort to get to the final given how little was expected of them before the tournament began but they'd have been in a far better place if they'd picked the excellent Mehedi Hasan Miraz, rather than bizarrely leaving him out of the squad entirely.  

Pitch and conditions. 

We're at Dubai again where in the last two matches, first innings scores of 168 and 171 weren't enough, though the fact they were chased with not many deliveries to spare, suggests they were 'almost' enough.  

Bangladesh are going to need 185 or more batting first to win this but even then, they'll only win if they get off to a good start and take early wickets. If they chase, they wouldn't want to be going after more than 170. Chasing might be their best bet, given the bias for chasers here, but can they handle the pressure of doing so?     

Match Winner odds 

You know that scenario where an older brother aged say 13 always beats the younger brother, aged say 10, at: marbles, penalty kicks in the back garden, pool, Monopoly and whatever else they play against each other, with the younger of the two often lacking belief that they can go on and win, even from very advantageous positions?  

Well, that's been the story of India v Bangladesh encounters over the years. Their head-to-head record in T20Is between them stands at 16-1 and I don't think I need to tell you who got the 16 wins.  

That's why India are 1/12, implied probability of 92.3%, and Bangladesh are 6/1, implied probability of 14.3%. The Tigers simply can't handle the pressure of playing India and whereas most matches against India are almost over before they've started, they've also made a mess of kicking on when ahead in the game. One to leave alone, then.  

*For all the latest and live India vs Bangladesh Odds then head over to betfred.com 

Top Indian Bowler

This might seem like a little bit of a case of shutting the barn door after the horse has bolted, but: is it that absurd to think Shivan Dube can replicate his efforts from Sunday and win the top bowler heat for the second game running? His 2-33 off four was a mammoth contribution to India's success on Sunday, not only dismissing two of their top three in the process but also rewarding those who had him at a price of 10/1 to be India top bowler on the day.  

India have only been using six bowlers recently and their modus operandi has been to cut off the guy who started 'poorly', which last time out was Axar Patel and only got to bowl one over; not that he did too much wrong when bowling just the six balls, for eight runs. It wasn't that poor.  

But Dube was given his four overs and if he gets a repeat of that, he'll have as good a chance as anyone, with dead-heats very likely to come into consideration. The latter is why we're going with him at 9/1 rather than someone like Jasprit Bumrah, at 13/5.  

Top India batsman

There are some monster names in India's top three with Abishek, Gill and Sky Yadav. But understandably, all those three are short enough. 

Tilak Varma, expected to bat at four, has been pretty consistent so far with scores of 31, 29 and 30 and even though none of them was enough to win top batsman honours as of yet, he's come relatively close and may even benefit from the selfless Sky Yadav letting him come in ahead of him at three. Maybe not, but even batting at four, he has a good chance on a wicket that should suit him. So, 9/2 is a perfectly acceptable price on him. With a T20I strike rate of 152, he's not going to die wondering.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

• Points Staked: 105.5 
• Points Returned: 96.25 
• Current P/L: -8.75