England vs India Prediction: Mop up the 3/1 on Tongue in 4th IT20

We are over halfway through this five match series and India are yet to get a win on the board. Will that change tonight down in the West Country?

Jamie Pacheco previews the fourth T20I between England and India at Bristol, with a start time of 5:30PM on Thursday evening, live on Sky Sports Cricket. He missed out last time but is quietly confident about his sole selection this time round...

*Remember you can explore all of our betting markets and check out all the Cricket Odds we have over on betfred.com

England  

England can be very pleased with their work on Tuesday, recovering from a slow start to post a competitive total, on the back of fine knocks by Phil Salt (70), Jos Buttler (36 off 21) and Sam Curran (41 off 24).  

But in the end, it was Jofra Archer picking up the Player of the Match award with 3-29, a decision the likes of Josh Tongue (4-28) or Salt may find a little odd.  

But they won't be too fussed about that and instead will focus on the fact they outplayed India in all three disciplines, are 2-0 up and in a good position to make it 3-0.  

Still, with a bit of breathing space in terms of the Series, Archer may get a well-needed rest, while it may be time to see what Rehan Ahmed can do, because we all know what Adil Rashid can do by now.  

India 

That's four losses in a row now for India (two against Ireland, two against England), and that could have been five if the first match hadn't been rained off after England posted a decent score first up, before the heavens opened.  

Their first 'crime' on Tuesday was to allow England to recover from being four down to post 201, a very competitive total. But far worse was to come when after making a fast start, they kept losing wickets and ended up losing the game by the biggest margin ever in their T20I history.  

Not good for them, not good for us, because we had them to win at 9/5 with both teams scoring 170 or more, something they should have done when trading at 1/2 during the chase, just before they lost their first wicket.  

So a nightmare start for new skipper Shreyas Iyer. They'll probably make a couple of changes for this one, but after such a shocker on Tuesday, it's hard to know which. That said, Washington Sundar is a strong contender to come in.  

Pitch and conditions. 

We're at Bristol this time where eight T20Is have been played in the past. Rohit Sharma (not playing here) hit 100 at this ground back in 2018.  

The average first innings score is 186, so the runs could flow here, but curiously, there's no toss bias, with four won by the side batting first, and four by the chasing side.  

No rain is forecast and it's likely to be pretty hot out there.  

Match Winner odds 

England have been cut from 4/5 to 8/11, the odds-makers deciding to show India some respect because after four losses from four completed India games, you may have expected the price on England to be considerably shorter.  

I wouldn't put anyone off that price on England but the possible omission of Archer and the fact India can only improve from last time makes me a tad cautious, so I'll leave it alone.  

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Top England Bowler    

We're going to have to abandon our strategy of going with big-priced Wil Jacks on this market, who didn't get any overs at all on Tuesday as England wrapped up their win within 12 overs. 

Instead, we're switching allegiances to Josh Tongue at 3/1, the man they call 'The Mop' for his ability to dismiss tail-enders, or 'mop up the tail' if you prefer.    

Firstly, because he bowled beautifully the other day with 4-28, the '28' showing he wasn't expensive while taking those wickets, always a good sign. Secondly, the possible omission of Archer will help his cause. Thirdly, this is a wicket for the seamers rather than the spinners, with 75% of wickets taken here done so by seamers rather than twirlers.  

Besides, Tongue may only have played two T20Is but boasts excellent figures at the domestic level in the T20 Blast and in The Hundred, averaging between 1.5 and 2 wickets across both those, which is excellent.  

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