England vs West Indies Prediction: Andre Russell’s top bat comes with a big price in 1st T20I

It's England v West Indies in the 1st T20I on Friday, played at Chester-Le-Street with live coverage on Sky Sports Cricket from 18:30 onwards.   

Jamie Pacheco thinks the Windies may finally secure a win in their strongest format, while two middle-order Windies batsmen catch his eye at 13/2 and 14/1 respectively for top bat honours. He has several betting tips to get into as we check out his England vs West Indies Predictions for Friday night...

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

England 

The ODI series is over and I must admit I'm quite happy that's the case because it's no secret that things didn't do our way.  

The latest instalment saw Brandon King dismissed to an ill-timed shot when going well on 16 and looking to capitalise on the Powerplay overs while our 7/2 selection Ben Duckett made a fine 58 off 46 only to be pipped by a superior 64 off 28 from Jamie Smith, a bitter pill to swallow when we consider that we had Smith at 5/1 for top batsman ahead of the 2nd ODI. But that's cricket, that's betting and we need to take the rough with the smooth.  

Interestingly, Smith has been left out of the squad for these T20Is so it should be Phil Salt (who had a perfectly good season with RCB in the IPL, who won it for the first time) partnering Ben Duckett at the top of the order. Joe Root continues to be ignored in this format by the England selectors so one of Will Jacks, new skipper Harry Brook or Jos Buttler will play at 3. They'll find a way of getting the impressive Jacob Bethell in the side as well given his strong performances, but we'll have to wait and see where he bats.  

With the ball, 35-year-old Liam Dawson is an interesting case of a player being recalled against the odds but there's still no Jofra Archer around. Not that they needed him too much in the ODI Series.   

Possible XI:  Duckett, Salt, Jacks, Buttler, Brook, Bethell, Overton, Dawson/Rehman, Rashid, Potts, Mahmood.   

West Indies 

The Windies should have at the very least lost that ODI Series 2-1 and at best won it 2-1 but rash shots, poor bowling, sloppy fielding and above all, poor shot selection and game management really cost them, so they only have themselves to blame. The best we can say about all that is that we at least avoided the temptation of backing them at a big price for the third game, safe in the knowledge that over 50 overs (or a slightly reduced 50 overs) they just don't have the discipline.  

But there's good news for West Indies fans, nonetheless. This is their best format and there's some fresh blood joining up with them who are true T20 specialists rather than a handful of ODI players who don't seem massively suited to the 50-over format.  

It's hard to argue the additions of Rovman Powell, Akeal Hossain, Jason Holder and above all, Andre Russell, doesn't make them stronger. Sherfane Rutherford had a fine IPL and looked good on Tuesday in the final ODI, top-scoring with 70, so he could prove to be a very important player for them this Series.  

For their sake, let's hope they don't make the mistake of batting Russell at seven or eight. He's too good a player for that and every over that he's not at the crease is a missed opportunity; but will the Windies see things that way?  

Possible XI:  King, Lewis, Hope, Rutherford, Powell, Russell, Chase/Holder, Hosein, Shepherd, Motie, Joseph. 

Pitch and conditions  

We're at Chester Le Street but Durham man Ben Stokes will be watching this one from the stands (if that) rather than being involved in the game.  

T20Is at the Durham ground have been limited to just four completed matches (out of five) with England boasting a 2/4 record here with defeats against South Africa (2012) and West Indies (2013) and with wins against Australia (2013) and New Zealand (2023).  

Give the only game played here at international level in the last eight years was the New Zealand one where England restricted the Kiwis to 139 and chased it comfortably, and that's the one that should give us the biggest clue: maybe 160 is about par.   

The forecast isn't as bad as it was ahead of that 3rd ODI at The Oval and with this being a 20 over game, we should get all the overs in, particularly because showers are likely to be around before the game starts at 18:30.  

England vs West Indies 1st T20I Odds

Right, time for a gamble. The Windies proved in all three ODIs that they can produce moments of brilliance but struggle to be consistently good over 100 overs. Fair enough. Here, they don't need to be.  

The additions of Russell, Hosein and Powell allow them to pick a strong side and although none of the three has been playing in English conditions, it shouldn't make much of a difference. Firstly because they've al played in England plenty before both at domestic and international level and secondly because T20 cricket is more about intent, confidence and momentum than ODI cricket is.  

The Windies, it should be noted, have a 18-16 win record against England in T20Is, proof that over the years brawn has prevailed over brain: tactics and strategies and match-ups and all the rest.  

Of course, it's never quite as simple as that. Of the 16 games played in England, the Windies have won just four.  But still. We'll take a gamble that the shorter format, the fresh blood in the Windies squad and overall superior head-to-head record will level things up. And that's good enough for us when we consider the Windies are a big-looking 7/4.   

England Top Runscorer 

Duckett would have traded as a very short-price favourite to top score for England in live betting in that last match when well set on  58 and chasing down the 64 from Duckett, who had already departed. But he found mid-wicket, which is fine, but a bit annoying when you consider just a few balls later so did Harry Brook… and that was dropped!  

But we'll persist with Duckett who has a good T20 record overall, is guaranteed to open and has shown good form over the last couple of weeks with scores of 140 (Test match against Zimbabwe), 60, 0 and 58 in those three ODIs at 7/2.  

The negative against the very capable Salt (also 7/2) is that despite a solid campaign in the IPL, conditions couldn't be any more different here while Duckett has already played four matches in English conditions over the last month and got to know this bowling attack. Bethell is one to take note of at a big 9/1 but if he bats as low as six is unlikely to get too many overs to muster a score. So Duckett it is.  

West Indies Top Batsman  

For the Windies, we're adopting a very different approach that could be summed up as hedging our bets. A quick start from the Top 4 could see the West Indies in business but we're not banking on that because this is a side where everyone goes for their shots and it's considered more of a sin to bat slowly and waste deliveries than it is to score quickly and get out for not that many.  

So a good start for them and our 13/8 bet on them winning is very much alive but a couple of early wickets opens the door to some big-priced middle-order batters who are very capable; not that they're not capable of a couple of good cameos that can win them the game anyway. 

Sherfane Rutherford (13/2) top scored the other day in the ODI with 70 after some decent knocks in the IPL with Gujarat and should bat at four or five.  

As for Andre Russell (14/1), I almost shouldn't need to explain why he's almost always a bet (at the right price) to top score for whichever side he's playing for but I will anyway just for the sake of it: few players score as heavily and quickly as him in world cricket, where he's capable of matching scores that others players need  40 balls to reach, in 20 deliveries.  A promotion up the order to 5 or 6 would help our cause but even from seven he'll have a decent chance at a big price.