England vs South Africa Prediction: Wrong prices make the Proteas a bet again

Jamie Pacheco previews the third ODI between England and South Africa at the Utilita Bowl in Southampton (11:00 BST, Sky Sports Main Event) on Sunday, as England look to salvage something from a series where they’re 2-0 down.

The Proteas look a great bet once again at 11/10, while Jamie is also splitting stakes on the South Africa Top Bowler market at 3/1 and 11/2. Below are his England vs South Africa predictions, alongside team news.

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

England

It was a somewhat improved performance in relation to the first game, but that’s really not saying much. The best thing you can say about England is that one way or another, they managed to stay in the game until the final ball of the match; had Jofra Archer hit it for six, they would have gone to a Super Over.

But some late big hitting from Archer doesn’t disguise the fact that for most of the chase, getting up always seemed unlikely. Joe Root and Jos Buttler, who both hit 61, deserve credit, particularly the latter for his high strike rate. Will Jacks played a decent cameo with 39, but Harry Brook admitted that when discussing proceedings with Brendon McCullum at the halfway mark, they both felt they’d conceded 10 or 15 too many, and so it proved.

Earlier, Archer had taken four wickets, while Adil Rashid was his usual economic self and took two of his own. One of the few highlights was Jacob Bethell’s unexpected promotion to number four and a quickfire 58 off 40 that briefly put England back in the game. We had Bethell at 11/1 and he fell just four runs short of a win, while we also had Jacks at 14/1, who also briefly threatened when at the crease on 41 and going well, and with just enough deliveries left to beat that 61. So, two close calls at big prices.

Archer will probably sit this one out, while quite why the exhausted and out-of-form Ben Duckett carries on playing is anyone’s guess.

Likely XI: 1. Jamie Smith, 2. Ben Duckett/Tom Banton 3. Joe Root, 4. Harry Brook (capt), 5. Jos Buttler (wk), 6. Jacob Bethell, 7. Will Jacks, 8. Brydon Carse, 9. Josh Tongue/Jamie Overton/Ahmed 10, 11. Adil Rashi.

South Africa

Another thoroughly professional performance where everyone contributed, to a man. Well, maybe not Temba Bavuma so much, who scored just four, though he was the skipper of the winning side, so I suppose even he deserves credit.

There was a 49 from Aiden Markram, a 58 from Tristan Stubbs, and some useful cameos from Dewald Brevis and Corbin Bosch, but the star with the bat was Matthew Breetzke with his 85 off 77, earning him the man-of-the-match award.

In the process, Breezke became the first player in the history of ODI cricket to pass 50 on each of his first five appearances in the format, one of those resulting in a century. Makes you wonder why he wasn’t in the side to begin with, and only came in because Tony de Zorzi got injured.

All the frontline bowlers took at least one wicket, with Nandre Burger taking three.

Let’s wait and see if Kagiso Rabada finally plays.

Likely XI: Markram, Rickelton, Bavuma, Breetzke, Stubbs, Brevis, Mulder/Bosch/Rabada, Muthsamy, Burger, Maharaj, Ngidi.

Pitch and conditions

There have been four ODI matches at the Rose Bowl since the 2019 World Cup. Three were against Ireland. England chased 172 with almost half their innings to spare, chased 212 with similar ease, before posting 328, only for Ireland to get there with a ball to spare after a brilliant 142 from Paul Stirling in August 2020. In 2023, a 95 from Liam Livingstone helped England get to 226 against New Zealand, defending that comfortably.

So, not easy to know what’s a good first innings score.

England vs South Africa 3rd ODI Odds

Are South Africa really still outsiders at 11/10 (47.6%) for this one? They certainly are. England have admittedly gone out a bit since the last match to 8/11 (58%), but the odds should at the very least be the other way around.

As the wise, straight-talking and logical Stuart Broad pointed out, it’s hard to see what this England team’s identity and game plans seem to be. Broad carried on by highlighting skipper Brook’s approach to leading the ODI side, when he said. ‘We want to play aggressive cricket with the bat and take lots of wickets with the ball.” Wow, Harry, you’ve really thought long and hard about that one.

So, the Proteas are 2-0 up, look a far better side overall, and are not the sort to take their foot off the pedal, whatever the circumstances. If anything, it’s England who might just want this Series to be over.

So, we’ll double up on South Africa after Thursday’s 1.5 point win at 6/5 and go in again at the slightly shorter price, which is still a pretty good one.

South Africa Top Bowler

I’ve been impressed with the performances of Nandre Burger so far. Wicket-taking left-arm quicks are one of the most priceless commodities in white ball cricket, and he’s one of the better ones. He won this betting heat last time out with three and took two wickets in each of his two appearances against Australia last month, his tally now an excellent 14 from nine games in the format. 3/1 is a perfectly decent price, especially if Rabada sits this one out again.

But at 11/2 I’m having a saver on Senuran Muthasamy, the man who kept his cool with Archer eyeing up a match-tying six. He bowled with decent control the other day and got through eight overs, so a repeat of that number of overs could see him in contention, too. The angle here is obviously the price: a dead-heat will return a good profit, a stand-alone win a really good one.

England Top Batsman

Duckett may keep his place, and if he doesn’t, it may go to Banton. But there’s another possibility. That Will Jacks - who showed good form in The Hundred, including a match-winning knock in the final – opens the batting. If he does, a quote of 14/1 is likely to be cut to about 4/1 before the match even gets underway. Even if he bats down at seven, it’s not inconceivable that he’ll have an outside chance given there’s often something in this wicket and that England could fold like a pack of cards again.

A repeat of the latter would also mean that Jacob Bethell may be in business. He hasn’t been in the best form with the bat, but he’s certainly got the talent. He’s 11/1 here and splitting small stakes between the two looks the way to go.

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025:

• Points Staked: 92
• Points Returned: 90.52
• Current P/L: -1.48

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...