Australia vs England Prediction: Backing England at 2/1 is Betting Value at the SCG

Our cricket tipster previews the Fifth and final Test between Australia and England, with the latter having already lost the Series, a match to be played in Sydney from 23.30 on Saturday, broadcast live on TNT Sports.  

Jamie Pacheco is assured of a profitable 2025 and he thinks England can build on the Fourth Test win and make it back-to-back wins, while that man Travis Head could put in another masterclass here at a good-looking 10/3 for top Aussie bat. Let's check out his Australia vs England Predictions...      

*You can check out the Cricket Odds from all of our Cricket Betting markets over on betfred.com

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Australia:

A stark reminder that this Australian side isn't quite the seemingly perfect one that was 3-0 up before the Melbourne Test.  

They've been the better side so far this Series, of course they have, but that was mostly down to showing more discipline and resilience, winning the key moments and the stand-out performances of Mitchell Starc, Alex Carey, Scott Boland and Travis Head rather than this being a champion side with no flaws.  

One toss going against them at the MCG, some disciplined England bowling and it was proven they have plenty of work to do themselves after this Series is over. Then again, the main priority was winning this Series almost irrespective of the score itself, and they achieved that in record time, so there's not much need to be too critical.  

A quick update on our Ashes long-term bets. There will be no 0.5-point winners on a drawn series or Ollie Pope top-scoring for England, but we did have Starc for top Australian wicket-taker for the Series at 6/4 for 1.5 points. The great left-arm quick is on 26 with Boland the nearest rival on 16. You'd think that Starc only needs to show up, take a couple of wickets across the whole match and we'll be home and dry. But let's see.  

39-year-old Usman Khawaja, who is yet to confirm whether he'll play beyond this Series, is in line to play. Cameron Green, who has so far batted in five different positions this Series and didn't get going in any of them, is under pressure for a place in the side from Beau Webster. Todd Murphy is likely to come in for his debut in this year's Ashes with Jye Richardson the favourite to make way.  

England  

We'll have to wait and see what the repercussions are of this lost Ashes Series. One thing is for sure: 3-2 is going to look a lot better than 4-1 so this match is a dead rubber in name only.  

Positives from the last Test: Josh Tongue, Man of the Match at the MCG, could be a big player for England over the next few years while Jacob Bethell's calm and composed 40 off 46 meant things were a bit easier in that fourth innings chase than they could have been.   

Jamie Smith could do with a score here after just one fifty in eight knocks, while there's no Jofra Archer or Gus Atkinson, both injured. Matthew Potts should come in for Atkinson while Will Jacks should keep his place rather than Shoaib Bashir coming in this late in proceedings. 

Pitch and conditions. 

Since 2014, there have been 12 Tests here, and Australia's record isn't great by their standards, winning six and drawing six, though we do note that you'd have to go back to England and 2011 for the last time they actually lost a Test here.  

There's some weather around in Sydney, particularly on Days 2 and 3. 

On the one hand, there have been six draws here in the last 12, so it could be a lively runner; on the other hand, the way these two teams have been playing, long drawn-out innings that don't force results seem unlikely.    

Australia vs England Fifth Test Odds

Australia are 8/13 or 62% if you prefer with England 2/1 (33.3%). If we're happy to dismiss the 6/1 on the draw, which we are given what we've said about both sides finding it hard to really knuckle down, then which of the two prices do we prefer on Australia or England to win?  

The answer has to be England. Not just because they're the far bigger price - that's the obvious bit - but also because Australia has developed a strange habit of being a bit complacent in Ashes series when the hard work is done.  

In 2019 they allowed England to win the Fifth Test at The Oval when they'd already secured the Ashes and the same happened again in 2023. The Aussies were 2-1 up going into the last Test and lost that to allow England to level the Series. Australia did admittedly win this Fifth Test at the SCG four years ago, but that was part of a wretched Tour for England where nothing went right. 

Both sides are badly depleted through injuries to key players but Australia have two more issues to deal with: the possible international retirement of Khawaja at the end of this match (farewells don't always go well) and the fact Murphy will be playing his first match of the Series. 

This could end up being a shootout, just as it was at the MCG (though we don't expect the wicket here to be quite as bowler-friendly) so all things considered, it makes sense to go with England. 

Top Australia Batsman 

It's not hard to make a case for Travis Head here at 10/3. For starters, he's the top scorer in the Series by some distance across both sides with 437 runs, Carey next best on 291 and surprisingly Zak Crawley after that, on 256.  

Head has scored two centuries so far and though bizarrely he is yet to get to 50 (without going on to get 100) he's averaging 54 this Series. Part of the secret to his success has been that he's been scoring far more boundaries than anyone else.  

His 45 fours are 17 more than anyone else has managed and his 8 sixes are twice as many as the next best (Harry Brook and Jamie Smith). All those boundaries have also contributed to a strike rate of 84, which is excellent for Test cricket. In other words, even if he doesn't hang around for too long, he's going to have runs to his name before he eventually gets out. That could make all the difference.  

With Smith and Marnus Labuschagne having indifferent Series and Khawaja with plenty on his mind, he's a somewhat obvious choice, but that's still a good price.  

Top England Batsman  

Plenty of big prices on offer here. Crawley is England's top batsman this Ashes yet is 7/1 for first innings bat honours, Bethell looked good touch in the second innings in Melbourne and is also 7/1, while Smith is no 11/1 shot on ability, though he has struggled.   

But this time around, we'll resist the temptation of splitting stakes between two big-priced players and keep it to just two bets.  

Jamie Pacheco Cricket P/L 2025: 

• Points Staked: 142 
• Points Returned: 145.2 
• Current P/L: +3.2pts 

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.

Sports Welcome Offer

New customers only. Deposit via Debit Card & place first bet £10+ (1/1+) on Sports in 7 days. £30 Sports & £20 Acca Free Bets within 10 hrs of settlement. 7-day expiry. Eligibility, payment excl. & T&Cs Apply.