Ashes Cricket Betting Tips: Jamie’s Three Best Bets for the Ashes

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Series Winner/Correct Score  

The more I look at the Series Winner market, the more it reminds me of the Ryder Cup market back in September.  

The USA were 4/6 to win that, Australia are 8/15 to win this one. Europe were 7/4 to win the Ryder Cup, England are 12/5 to win the Ashes. Sure, not exactly the same prices, but close enough.  

But it's not just the prices as such. Even though I made the golf contest almost an even-money affair in terms of the quality of the players, I resisted backing Europe purely because of how rare it had been for Europe to win on American soil over the decades.   

Again, you can see the similarities here. Just one England Series win over in Oz from the last eight attempts. So does history repeat itself because of how hard it is to win away? Or do we forget about all that and just judge the teams and their prices on their current merits? Hard to say.  

Australia's first advantage is home advantage, which, as we know, is worth its weight in gold in Test cricket. In Nathan Lyon, Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins they have an attack that has seen it all before in Ashes cricket. Lyon has won the Ashes three times on home soil, Starc, Hazlewood, and Cummins twice. Steve Smith is a run machine. The crowds are going to make life unpleasant for the tourists.  

England have in Ben Stokes a more daring, imaginative and resourceful skipper than Cummins or the stand-in skipper for the First Test (at least), Smith. Stokes can do things other mere mortals can't, especially in the Ashes. Only Sachin Tendulkar has scored more Test runs than Joe Root. Jofra Archer is the most menacing pace bowler in the Series, while Mark Wood, if fit, is the quickest.  

So as simple as it sounds, I think they can cancel each other out quite nicely. It's worth remembering that two of the last three Series ended in 2-2 draws, albeit both in England.  

Bizarrely, the 2-2 correct score (my idea of the Series score) is a shorter price at 15/2 than the straight draw in the Series winner market at 8/1, so it's not rocket science as to which of the two I'm going with.  

Bet: 0.5pts Back the Series draw @ 8/1  

England Top Batsman  

Joe Root (21/10) top-scored the last time England were in Australia and was runner-up to Dawid Malan (remember him?) in 207/18, falling just five runs short of Malan's tally of 383.  

So, he knows how to get runs here despite that oft-repeated stat about him never scoring a Test century over there.  

So if in doubt, go with Root. He may finally get his much-deserved century at last or he might not and top-score for them anyway.  

The price I don't like is that of Harry Brook at 5/2. His 363 runs put him in fourth place for most Series runs in England two years ago, so not particularly impressive, but of far greater worry for me is his overly casual demeanour to international cricket. See the 'who cares if you get caught on the boundary?" comment in the aftermath of an ODI defeat. Or the way he treated England's only warm-up game on Australian soil before the Series started this week, rushing down the wicket, playing T20 scoops and treating the whole thing like one big joke.  

Maybe spend some time in the middle ahead of Perth, mate? We all know about his talent, shot-making, and run scoring, but is this a man you'd rely on to dig deep when your team is in a pickle on a tricky wicket where every run matters? Not for me, he's not.  

But who didn't treat the warm-up game against the Lions like it was an unwanted distraction was Ollie Pope. He scored a century and for the time being at least that means he keeps his number three spot rather than Jacob Bethell taking it.  

As we all know, Pope hasn't been in great Test form for a while, and he didn't have a good time of it last time he was here, with just 67 runs in six innings. But still. A man with nine Test centuries and 16 fifties batting at three deserves a bit more respect than being chalked up at 8/1. Well, I'm certainly not disrespecting him at the prices. He is after all four times the price of Root and over three times Brook's price.  

Bet: 0.5pts Back Ollie Pope to be England Series Top Batsman @ 8/1  

Top Australia Bowler  

I think we can rule out Pat Cummins here at 6/1, who in normal circumstances, would be a rightful favourite, or at least joint favorite. Cummins is definitely out of the First Test with injury. He could easily be playing catch-up to a bowler already on six or seven wickets by the time the second Test comes about. Which he may not play in, either. Or he may get injured and miss one of the last three. Enough said.  

Nathan Lyon at 11/4 will be fancied by many on the grounds that he'll play all five Tests, barring an unexpected injury, because he certainly won't be rested for any of them. He's very likely to bowl more overs than anyone else this Series. The problem is he's never won this betting heat and, quite frankly, hasn't even come particularly close. And he's had five attempts at it, though admittedly he only played the First Test last time out after picking up an injury. We can rule him out.  

A big price on Scott Boland may have grabbed my attention as one of the world's most underrated bowlers. But the odds-compilers aren't playing ball in that regard, offering just 11/4. That's no price for a man who has, after all, only played 14 Tests. Yes, his numbers are excellent, but he shouldn't be the same price or thereabouts as some of the bowling monsters he's up against here. It's also worth remembering that he's only playing in the first match because of Cummins' injury and he will be the first one out when Cummins returns, unless one of the other ones gets injured.  

Which leaves us with Hazlewood at 2/1 and Starc at 6/4 but with the former ruled out of the first test, it changes things somewhat.

Before that, there wasn't really much to choose between them. Hazlewood averages 24.21 in all Test match cricket, Starc averages 26.46; Hazlewood has a strike rate of 52, bettered by Starc's 47.1. Surprisingly, Hazlewood has only played six Tests against England in Australia, taking 24 wickets at a rate of exactly four a match.  

Starc has played nine Tests against England in Australia, taking 41 wickets, so 4.5 wickets a game. I did say there wasn't much in it.  

But preference goes to Starc. Hazlewood is coming into this Series on the back of an injury, Starc isn't.  

'Mitch', statistically the best pink ball bowler in the world, will be relishing the Second Test at Brisbane under lights, and it would be no surprise if he took six or seven scalps across the match right there.

Bet: 1.5pts Back Mitchell Starc to be Australia Top Series Bowler @ 6/4