Afghanistan vs South Africa Prediction: Rashid and co are the clean betting value

It’s Afghanistan against South Africa in the third match of the Champions Trophy on Friday, start time of 09:00 with live coverage on Sky Sports Cricket.  

Jamie Pacheco is going with the 2/1 outsiders, a Price Boost and a real outsider for Top South Africa bowler, so keep reading and all will be revealed as he previews the action and gives us his Afghanistan vs South Africa Predictions... 

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

Afghanistan  

Having made the semis of the last T20 World Cup, it's no longer the case that this lot are 'minnows, 'rank outsiders' or 'plucky underdogs'.   

No, they're a side featuring five or six players who are not only much sought-after on the T20 franchise circuit but would also get into plenty of other teams at this tournament across 50 overs. I mean, who wouldn't want Rashid Khan in their side? Or explosive opener Rahmanullah Gurbaz, who also keeps wicket. Fazalhaq Farooqi, the left-arm quick is a superb bowler, we could go on.   

There are good reasons why Afghanistan can at least make the semis. Spin-friendly conditions in Pakistan will suit their bowling line-up, this crop have played endless times together over the years, they really play as a team and just keep on improving. Rashid alone can win any game for you.   

The one concern is the middle-order, where the all-rounders like Mohammad Nabi and Azmatullah Omarzai do their best but they're not of the same standard as their counterparts at most of the other teams in the tournament.   

So, much will depend on the openers getting fast starts or being around for at least the first 25 overs or so.    

Possible XI: 1 Ibrahim Zadran, 2 Rahmanullah Gurbaz (wk), 3 Rahmat Shah, 4 Hashmatullah Shahidi (capt), 5 Azmatullah Omarzai, 6 Gulbadin Naib, 7 Mohammad Nabi, 8 Rashid Khan, 9 Noor Ahmad/Nangeyalia Kharote, 10 Naveed Zadran, 11 Fazalhaq Farooqi  

South Africa  

Unlike Afghanistan, it's not so easy to make a case for South Africa going deep in this tournament.   

They're missing two key pacers in Anrich Nortje and Gerald Coetzee, Temba Bavuma is a leader by example rather than a tactical mastermind, and other teams have better spinners than theirs.    

Still, in Kagiso Rabada, Heinrich Klassen, Aiden Markram and Marco Jansen they have a quartet of brilliant players giving them good balance.   

Jansen may end up being the most important of all. 

Possible XI: 1 Temba Bavuma (capt) 2 Tony de Zorzi, 3 Rassie van der Dussen, 4 Aiden Markram, 5 Heinrich Klaasen (wk), 6 David Miller, 7 Wiaan Mulder, 8 Marco Jansen, 9 Corbin Bosch, 10 Keshav Maharaj 11 Kagiso Rabada 

Pitch and conditions   

Karachi is where New Zealand beat Pakistan on Wednesday, as predicted in our Pakistan vs New Zealand preview.  

But it might not be as easy to score runs here as one would normally think at this venue. Tom Latham, Will Young and Graham Phillips all batted out of their skins to get to such a big total and the reason why Pakistan started so slowly was, quite simply, because it wasn't an easy wicket to bat on.  

So, 280 might be very competitive rather than the 320 many would have thought before Wednesday's match.  

Afghanistan vs South Africa Odds

Afghanistan are 2/1. That's a pretty good price about a side who ticks a lot of the boxes you'd want from a team in these conditions. Back in September, Afghanistan beat the Proteas 2-1 in somewhat similar conditions in Sharjah, so it's not like they don't know what to do in terms of getting over the line. Or that they'll panic when they're in a winning position.  

Ideally, we want Afghanistan to bat first, get to anything above 280 and unleash an army of spinners against the SA batters who may get bogged down. Or at the other end of the spectrum, go for too many shots on a wicket where you can't take too may liberties.  

But Rashid and co chasing isn't the worst scenario either. The way the openers like to bat, their slowish approach may be suited to building a platform and let the big hitting lower middle-order finish things off with wickets in hand. You can score quickly in the death overs at this ground, if necessary.   

That's a good value price and it's too good to turn down.  

Price Boost  

Betfred have four price boosts on offer for this match.  

Of the four, the Klassen to get to 50 option at 13/5 looks the second-best of them and I wouldn't put anyone off that.  

But I prefer the last of the four listed: that each of Rashid Khan and Kagiso Rabada take at least two wickets. Their records in ODIs are among the best in the world and this is a wicket that provides something for both the pace of Rabada and the spin of Khan. It's been boosted from 12/5 to 11/4 and it's a good option.  

South Africa Top Bowler  

If South Africa go with Tristan Stubbs rather than Wiaam Mulder, they'll only have fielding five frontline bowling options with Aiden Markram the only real option as the sixth. He's a bit like Joe Root in that he doesn't turn it that much or have many variations but it's all nice and straight, accurate lines and lengths, so that's a good recipe for taking wickets.  

If he starts well or it's spinning even more than we'd expect, he might even bowl eight or nine, especially if one of the others has an off-day.  At somewhat ridiculous odds of 16/1, we're not paying a premium to find out how many overs he bowls or how well, so it's worth half a point.  

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...