Pakistan vs New Zealand Prediction: Back Williamson to lead Kiwis in ICC Champions Trophy opener

It's Pakistan against New Zealand in the opening match of the Champions Trophy on Wednesday, start time of 09:00 with live coverage on Sky Sports Cricket.  

Jamie Pacheco is coming off a very profitable England tour of India and thinks an excellent all-round New Zealand side can defy the odds against Pakistan with that man Kane Williamson helping them in their cause by getting at least four fours. You can read his full match preview below along with his best Pakistan vs New Zealand Predictions...

*You can check out all of our Cricket Odds over at betfred.com

Pakistan    

Pakistan are fresh from playing a tri-Series against New Zealand and South Africa, losing twice to the Kiwis, including in the final, but getting up to chase 353 against South Africa with six balls to spare, breaking all sorts of records in the process.  

Veteran Fakhar Zaman was in good touch with scores of 84, 41 and 10 in those three games, while skipper Mohammad Rizwan (3, 122 not out and 46) and Salman Agha (40, 134 and 45) were also in the runs. Babar Azam wasn't at his best, not getting to 50 in any of those games on flat wickets and may be better suited to batting at his usual position at three rather than as an opener.  

They're sweating on the fitness of Haris Rauf. Reports suggest he's fit and raring to go but even if he does play, he won't be at 100% and maybe they'd be advised not to play him in this one and give him some more time to recover. Then again, this is the key clash in the Group with India expected to win all three of their matches, so in a way, it's the one they can least afford to be without him for. 

Shaheen Shah Afridi bowled well in that Series so that's a big positive while Naseem Shah was good too, but neither can match the pace of Rauf, particularly when bowling at tail-enders in the death overs.  

Possible XI:  Zaman, Azam, Shakeel, Rizwan, Agha, Tahir, Shah, Ashraf, Afridi, Ahmed, Shah/Rauf.   

New Zealand 

Dismiss this lot at your peril. Once again, a quick look at their side shows they're not full of superstars but good luck beating a well-organised, happy team who always field brilliantly and play for each other. As we said already, they beat Pakistan twice in their own backyard so come into the competition in good form and high on confidence.  

There's no Trent Boult which is a big loss, but Will O'Rourke and Jacob Duffy are doing their best to make up for his absence.  

Elsewhere, there's plenty to like about the side with the calm and composted Kane Williamson the anchor at three, the effervescent Graham Phillips contributing in all three disciplines and Mitchell Santner providing control with the ball and taking well to leadership.  

Rachin Ravindra may miss out after being concussed but he may have missed out anyway, with Will Young and Devon Conway a good partnership at the top of the order.  

Possible XI: Young, Conway, Williamson, Mitchell, Latham, Phillips, Bracewell, Santner, Smith/Henry, Duffy, O'Rourke.  

Pitch and conditions   

There have been eight matches at Karachi since 2023. Curiously, seven of them were contested between Pakistan and New Zealand, which is nice and helpful for us.  

Across those seven, the Kiwis won four of them, including Friday's final, so they'll be pretty happy to be playing here. 

Pakistan's 242 on Friday batting first was a poor effort given this is generally a road here in Karachi, proof of which was the 352 that a second-string South Africa posted, and the fact Pakistan chased it, relatively easily in the end.  

So, 300 first up is a bare minimum but anything less than 325-330 and you'd probably say the chaser is favourite at the change of innings.  

Pakistan vs New Zealand Odds

Pakistan are marginal favourites at 8/11 (implied probability of 58%) with New Zealand 11/10.  

I'm not surprised that Pakistan are slight favourites on home soil and with fervent crowd support, and that will play its part. 

But the Black Caps look the better all-round team, have no real injury concerns and are fresh from beating Pakistan twice and also South Africa once, chasing 305 with an over to spare after Williamson scored 133 not out. It shows they can chase big scores, in addition to defending big totals when they get to bat first.  

Also don't underestimate the importance of excellent fielding on good wickets; a saved boundary here or there, good catch or brilliant run out can make all the difference and no prizes for guessing who's the better of the two at that. New Zealand are worth a pre-match bet at the odds.  

Kane Williamson Over 3.5 Total Fours 

I’m a bit surprised you can get 11/10 on the prolific Williamson to hit four or more fours in this match.  

Not only he is one of the most effective batsmen in the world in this format and has been for over a decade, but he knows this wicket very well from playing in all of those seven matches here against Pakistan since 2023.   

He hit four or more boundaries in two of the three matches over the last week or so, with his 113 not out proof of the damage he can do.  

It’s too good a price to miss out on. 

Jamie Pacheco predominantly covers Cricket and European Football for us at Betfred Insights. You can check out his Cricket Betting Tips, along with those from the rest of the team, at our Cricket hub page...