Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III Predictions: Hall of Famers close the book on iconic rivalry

Katie Taylor has a chance to go 3-0 against fellow future Hall of Famer Amanda Serrano this Friday, July 11 at Madison Square Garden in New York. Netflix will screen the bout live as the bill-topper of an all-women’s card. The stacked show will feature outings for IBF super middleweight queen Savannah Marshall, undisputed super featherweight boss Alycia Baumgardner and unified super bantamweight titlist Ellie Scotney.

Here are my Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III predictions ahead of the final chapter in one of the greatest rivalries of modern times.

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III Odds

Serrano is a 4/7 favourite. On the surface that might surprise some, given the fact Taylor is 2-0 up in series so far. But it is rare to run into a boxing fan or figure who has not scored at least one of those fights for Amanda. Taylor is 29/20 to go 3-0 up over Serrano. The draw, an eye-catcher given how close these fights have been, is 14/1.

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III Fight Preview

How do you follow the greatest fight in the history of female boxing? The very first women’s fight to headline Madison Square Garden? With reportedly the most-watched female sporting event in history, of course.

Those descriptors are to indicate Katie Taylor’s 2022 split decision win over Amanda Serrano in The Big Apple and her 2024 unanimous nod in their 2024 rematch at Allegiant Stadium in Texas. 

Trilogies do not usually arrive after the same fighter wins two fights in a row against a particular foe. But Taylor vs Serrano is not most trilogies. Away from the history the women have made as individuals and opponents, the first two fights were both controversial and utterly enthralling.

Serrano had a strong case for winning the first, that back-and-forth battle in Midtown Manhattan. I personally scored for the Puerto Rican, though I have no quarrel with the judges after a scintillating contest.

The second bout was another scorcher, perhaps even more enthralling than the MSG war. The added ingredient this time was Taylor’s use of the head. The Irish superstar had a point taken in eighth but the damage to Serrano’s face was extreme. It was tight again on the cards. I expected the point deduction to have more of an impact but three identical scores of 95-94 saw the Olympic gold medalist take a unanimous decision.

So we arrive at an unconventional trilogy. Tyson Fury took Derek Chisora on three times, but he had won the first two fights handily going into the superfluous third. Taylor-Serrano III feels different. Each fight was so savage and so closely-contested. So pendulous and open to interpretation. It is rare that two fights, each won by the same fighter, can elicit such a sense of unfinished business.

As well as another instalment of one of the very best modern boxing rivalries, the fight is also something of an opportunity to give thanks. Taylor is 39 while Serrano is 36. Neither will be around forever and their accomplishments will reverberate throughout the history of the sport.

Taylor is a national icon in her native Ireland, but her influence has reached far further. Credited in many quarters with kicking of the boom of women’s boxing, ‘The Bray Bomber’ was the first female lightweight champion in Olympic history. The momentum from that London 2012 triumph has taken her to undisputed championships at two weights. Only two women have held all four major belts in both divisions, the other being Claressa Shields.

Serrano is the only female fighter in history to hold titles at seven different weights. Across the entirety of boxing irrespective of gender, Serrano is second only to Manny Pacquiao’s eight-weight honours. In 2023, her points win over Danila Ramos was the first ever women’s title fight contested over 12, three-minute rounds.

Whichever way you slice it, Taylor and Serrano are trailblazers. They are legends. But those words confine them to the history books, where they are destined to land. But these women still have chapters to write. The third fight in their classic rivalry might be the most important one of all.

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III Full Card

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III 

Alycia Baumgardner vs Jennifer Miranda

Ellie Scotney vs Yamileth Mercado

Savannah Marshall vs Shadasia Green

Chantelle Cameron vs Jessica Camara

Cherneka Johnson vs Shurretta Metcalf

Katie Taylor vs Amanda Serrano III Predictions

How do you predict the probable ending of a rivalry that has packed in this many twists, turns, controversies and arguments? After 20 rounds of the most closely-fought action imaginable, let’s see if we can predict the next 10 or less.

I picked Serrano last time and for the second time in a row I felt like she deserved to have her hand raised. 

But neither decision has been truly egregious in my eyes and I am willing to listen to arguments in Taylor’s favour. Despite the sport being called a “sweet” one at times, scoring boxing is not an exact science. I think that much will be evident again when these two warriors get it on.

I foresee another see-saw battle. I hope for a clean one, but the second bout saw bad blood, literal and figurative, spilled onto the canvas. Will that enmity be in evidence? Will the referee be swayed by the Serrano’s talk about Katie’s use of the head?

I am going to go with my gut. Serrano, in my personal opinion, boxed far too well to lose either of the previous fights. If ‘The Real Deal’ can impose herself on Taylor, perhaps keep the action in the mid-range and box more, I can see her finally winning clearly enough that she gets the decision and the undisputed super lightweight championship to boot. Serrano on points is 1/1.

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