Gassiev vs Kadiru Predictions: WBA world title fight plays into Murat’s hands

WBA heavyweight champion Murat Gassiev defends his newly-minted belt against unheralded Peter Kadiru this Saturday, July 11. The new titlist was originally supposed to meet France’s Olympic gold medalist Tony Yoka, before the challenger suffered a back injury. The bout takes place at the VTB Arena in Moscow. 

The card, which also features British heavyweight Joe Joyce, will stream for free via YouTube as well as live on DAZN. Read on for my Gassiev vs Kadiru predictions ahead of this curious world title affair.

Gassiev vs Kadiru Fight Preview

By any measure, Kadiru is one of the weakest challengers for a recognised world heavyweight championship in history. But with this fight coming mere weeks after a 1-0 boxer was permitted a shot at the WBC heavyweight title, Kadiru doesn’t even go down as the worst divisional challenger of the summer.

This is an odd one. The fight stinks of a WBA ‘regular’ championship mess. Shades of unconvincing American Trevor Bryan vs the pudgy Jonathan Guidry or Alexander Povetkin pounding the sad remnants of former champion Hasim Rahman, who was a decade removed from his prime.

That unpleasant musk is detectable because Gassiev was, in fact, scheduled to headline the VTB in a defence of the WBA ‘regular’ belt. The worthless trinket was scooped with a come-from-behind knockout against the decrepit Kubrat Pulev. It was scheduled to be defended against Yoka, who was not even ranked by the WBA when the fight was announced. The 15-3 Frenchman magically appeared in the rankings shortly afterwards.

Kadiru is not ranked either, though by the time this piece finds you he may well be sitting undeservingly at 14 or 15 in the fluid ratings of the fetid WBA.

But this unwelcome distraction of a fight is no longer for the WBA’s sanctioning-fee scooping ‘regular’ monstrosity. No, with the news that Oleksandr Usyk was vacating his WBO, IBF and WBA titles, Gassiev was upgraded to the legitimate championship. He is the WBA heavyweight champion as it stands.

This turn up for the books made Yoka’s withdrawal an international story. Suddenly, an open spot was available for a shot at the same WBA championship Muhammad Ali, Mike Tyson, Lennox Lewis and Roy Jones Jr have all held. A chance to be a (somewhat) legitimate heavyweight champion of the world.

Training for a fight on the undercard, Britain’s rusty ‘Juggernaut’ was reportedly in the running. Joe Joyce rose to the very precipice of title contention with 15 consecutive wins and 14 knockouts at the start of his career. Already an Olympic silver medalist, the likable, soft-hearted Joe rose to prominence by knocking out the likes of Daniel Dubois and Joseph Parker.

But Joyce has lost twice to Zhilei Zhang, as well as suffering punishing defeats to Derek Chisora and Filip Hrgovic. Of his last five fights, he has won one, against controversial card-filler Kash Ali.

Precious little in the way of world title credentials then. The WBA did apparently listen to the criticism. But replacing Joe with a 23-1 unknown who has never beaten anyone of note showed a fundamental misunderstanding of the criticism. 

Undefeated Artem Suslenkov is scheduled to face Joyce on the undercard. He is ranked number 10 by the WBA, while Joyce and Kadiru are both unranked. Perhaps Gassiev didn’t fancy a late replacement who has never tasted defeat. Perhaps the WBA didn’t fancy doing the sensible thing and making the Kadiru fight a non-title affair.

Kadiru’s best win came in his last fight, when he out-scored countryman Senad Gashi. You might know the big German from Carlos Takam and Derek Chisora knocking him around a decade ago. Not exactly a win that a 2026 championship challenge is built upon.

Fairly or unfairly, Gassiev is going to be target number-one for any emerging challengers now. The WBC belt has landed with Agit Kabayel, who is on a phenomenal run of victories. Daniel Dubois just beat Fabio Wardley for the WBO title and his win over Anthony Joshua will scare off a few. The IBF pipeline seems destined to lead to Moses Itauma, the warrior wonderkid with dynamite in his fists.

Gassiev was a world champion at cruiserweight, with his only loss at 200lbs coming to Usyk in an undisputed title fight. Wins over IBF champion Denis Lebedev and WBA kingpin Yuniel Dorticos saw him reign as unified kingpin. But his heavyweight career has been lukewarm.

Gassiev has beaten 44-year-old Pulev, along with the usual gatekeeper fare like Michael Wallisch, Nuri Seferi and Mike Balogun. But a points loss to Otto Wallin, the decent but non-threatening Swede who AJ detonated three years ago, demonstrates Gassiev’s ceiling.

Kadiru is a ground-level talent and Gassiev should have no worries here. But, with Zuffa minting their own world title belts as we speak, the WBA must ensure their next world heavyweight title fight is more consequential, lest they drop out of the ‘four-belt era’ altogether.

Gassiev vs Kadiru Full Card

Murat Gassiev vs Peter Kadiru

Artem Suslenkov vs Joe Joyce

Murad Khalidov vs Arslan Yallyev

Aleksei Egorov vs David Dzukaev

Sharabutdin Ataev vs Jose Uzcategui 

Tamerlan Ozdoev vs Shivam

Vyacheslav Rogozin vs RV Deniega

Gassiev vs Kadiru Prediction

Kadiru has learned lessons from his sole defeat; to Argentine journeyman Marcos Antonio Aumada via knockout in 2022.

The German seems to have conquered his habit of keeping his left hand low and now prefers to turtle-up and come in behind a high guard. He pops a fair jab out from that shell and drops to the body quite nicely. Against the rugged but limited fighters he has faced, Kadiru looks solid skill-wise.

But Gassiev is also a high-guard, jab-forward fighter and he purveys this style more aggressively than Kadiru. Against the long limbs of Wallin or the slickness of Usyk, Gassiev’s textbook defence was pulled apart at the seams. 

Pulev had success using his reach against Gassiev before succumbing to the KO. Kronk-forged campaigner Isaiah Thomas befuddled the Russian with southpaw shoulder-rolls before a punch after the bell from Gassiev ended the fight as a No Contest.

Kadiru does not have either the superior reach, spearing jab or unorthodox style needed to dethrone Gassiev. I think the Russian paws his way in and pounds his unheralded foe out inside the distance. Gassiev by knockout is my pick.