USA vs Paraguay Prediction: Adams’ overaggressive nature laid bare in 9/2 Price Boost

One of the 2026 FIFA World Cup co-hosts, the USA, get their Group D campaign underway against Paraguay at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California (6pm local, 2am BST, BBC One).

Below are my USA vs Paraguay predictions, supported by all the latest team news and match odds.

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Team News

Crystal Palace defender Chris Richards has declared himself "ready" for the USA's World Cup opener after recovering from an ankle injury. Should head coach Mauricio Pochettino disagree with the Eagles star's assertion, either Toulouse's Mark McKenzie or FC Cincinnati's Miles Robinson will be drafted in to partner Tim Ream at centre-back.

In midfield, AFC Bournemouth's Tyler Adams and Juventus' Weston McKennie will spark up a formidable partnership, while AC Milan's Christian Pulisic and AS Monaco's Folarin Balogun will be key in attack.

World Cup Odds

Strasbourg forward Julio Enciso suffered a quadriceps injury in Paraguay's final friendly before the World Cup, and he may not be risked at SoFi Stadium, particularly from the start.

Palmeiras' Mauricio could be the beneficiary of Enciso's demotion to the bench, while Sunderland defender Omar Alderete, Brighton midfielder Diego Gomez and Atlanta United winger Miguel Almiron look like locks in Gustavo Alfaro's starting XI.

Head-to-head record

The USA and Paraguay have played each other seven times; the former have come out on top five times, while the latter have triumphed twice, with no draws recorded between the two teams.

The first meeting was at the 1930 World Cup, with the USA winning 3-0, but they didn't meet again until a July 2003 friendly, when the Stars and Stripes came out on top again (3-0).

USA vs Paraguay Odds

USA are 19/20 favourites, implying a 51.3% probability of success, with Paraguay 3/1, or a 25% chance, and the draw offered at 23/10.

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Price Boosts - Tyler Adams (USA) to be Carded @ 18/5 9/2

Adams has been a serial carder since reaching UK shores in the summer of 2022, picking up six yellows and one red in 24 Premier League appearances for Leeds United before making the switch to his current club, Bournemouth.

He only appeared three times in the 2023/24 Premier League campaign due to injury, but he played 28 times the following season, receiving seven yellows, and he went one better in 2025/26, collecting eight bookings in 25 appearances.

Adams was shown one yellow in four outings at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, going into the book in his country's final group game, a 1-0 victory over Iran, but he committed three fouls in their opening match against Wales (1-1), showing he's not afraid to jump right in and showcase his aggressive nature.

At last year's Gold Cup, played in the USA, the 27-year-old was booked twice in five appearances (four starts), while at the 2024 Copa America, he was handed one yellow in three games.

At the latter tournament, Paraguay midfielder Damian Bobadilla, expected to start for his country this weekend, attracted a yellow-card challenge from Brazil's Lucas Paqueta.

The Sao Paulo man's likely midfield partner, Andres Cuba (Vancouver Whitecaps), was fouled four times in two appearances at the 2024 Copa America, and in this season's MLS, he's averaging 1.1 fouls won per game.

In November's friendly, an American midfielder, Cristian Roldan, was booked, as well as attacking midfielder Giovanni Reyna; Adams didn't play in that game, but this time around, it could be his name in the referee's notebook.

Total Cards Over/Under +3.5 - Over 3.5 @ 4/5

November's game was anything but 'friendly', with five yellows handed out on the pitch, and a further two cards, one yellow and one red, shown to the bench.

The USA received two on-field bookings, while Paraguay saw yellow three times.

I'm expecting another spicy contest here in both teams' opening game of the World Cup, with both targeting a positive result; in the USA's case, they'll be after all three points as they seek to top Group D.

The pressure, then, will be huge, and that could lead to a number of tactical fouls and heavy challenges, seeing the referee get his cards out at least four times.

In the USA's opening game at the 2022 World Cup, six yellows were handed out between them and Wales.